Trade Report :

$74,625 For US Forces Enter Iran — Polymarket Whale Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

tsybka (0xd5ccdf772f795547e299de57f47966e24de8dea4) · @tsybka

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$74,625

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.995

Entry Price

2026-04-07 14:03:51 ET

Time

tsybka placed $74,625 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.995 (market gives 99.5% probability). Total market volume $144,534,323.03, 24h volume $50,461,419.368, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.995

Yes odds at 0.995, market gives 99.5% chance

0.5%

Yes

99.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $74,625 becomes $75,000 (profit $375)
If wrong, loses $74,625

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale just dropped $74,625 to snag a paltry $375 profit, betting that an F-15 rescue mission already ticked the "US forces in Iran" box. Pure settlement arbitrage, a high-stakes game of chicken with the resolution oracle.

Others bought Yes for pennies on the dollar months ago. This one's buying at 99.5 cents. He's trusting that "special ops" truly means *military*, not some shadowy intel outfit.

A 0.5% return on $74k looks like chump change, but if it resolves fast, that's an annualized yield that'd make your broker weep. The market's hot, other whales are swimming in profit.

But if the Pentagon plays semantic games, this "guaranteed" payout turns into a $74,625 crater. Brilliant, if you don't get flattened.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$144,534,323.03

24h Volume

$50,461,419.368

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the deadline. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding intelligence operatives, diplomatic personnel, or accidental entries.

Timeline

The market considers events occurring at any time up to the specified deadline, which is measured in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of information from credible and reliable reporting sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any US personnel entering Iran, or entry into maritime/aerial territory, would qualify, when only deliberate land entry by active military for operational purposes counts.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US forces Iran

Relevant tweets: 38

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The market's still debating if the cat's out of the bag, but US forces *already* entered Iran for that F-15 rescue mission. If "entering" means any boots on the ground, you missed the memo: "Yes" is a done deal.

Trump's gone full Dr. Strangelove, setting a Tuesday 8 PM ET hard deadline. Expect "power plant day" or worse. Nuclear whispers clash with official denials — classic fog of war. Iran's playing Machiavelli, talking peace while sharpening knives.

Read the fine print, plebs. Is "entering" a drive-by or D-Day? Whales are watching that Tuesday 8 PM ET trigger. The Strait of Hormuz isn't just a waterway; it's the tripwire. Bet accordingly, or get liquidated faster than a meme stock.

KOL — High Relevance (3)

KOL@CNNverified61,749,399 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

President Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran following a successful mission to rescue a US service member stranded in Iran after his jet was shot down.

President Donald Trump has once again issued an ultimatum for Tehran, following a successful high-stakes mission to rescue a US service member stranded in Iran after his jet was shot down. Here's the latest. https://t.co/eb01nkeGIE https://t.co/87dtBvtYJS

172,319 views151 rt676 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NBCNewsverified9,301,990 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

President Trump stated an American F-15 fighter jet was shot down in Iran by a shoulder-fired missile, leading to the rescue of two airmen.

President Trump says the American F-15 fighter jet was brought down in Iran by a shoulder-fired missile, leading to the dramatic rescue of two airmen. https://t.co/9g37DjANfT

7,649 views3 rt13 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified494,204 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

US General Caine stated that every Iranian with a small gun was shooting at US forces, indicating Iranians view the US as invaders, not liberators.

US General Caine: "Every Iranian who had a small gun was shooting at us." This right here tells you the Iranian people don’t view the US as “liberators.” They view the US as invaders which is why they’re all shooting at the US aircraft that are invading & bombing their country. https://t.co/iIBS0QsUkn

274,667 views984 rt4,663 likesER:0.0493RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@tv_ir_Xverified20,073 flwQ:5/5newsneutral

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Missile Command announced that all targeting restrictions have ended and it will attack infrastructure to deprive the US and regional allies.

🚨 BREAKING Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Missile Command: Announces that all targeting restrictions have ended and that it will attack infrastructure in a way that could deprive the US and regional countries of oil and gas resources for years. Orders have been transmitted to local missile bases, and they will begin immediately.

4,234 views31 rt73 likesER:0.0345RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@CNNverified61,749,399 flwQ:5/5newsneutral

The US struck military targets on Iran's strategic Kharg Island, according to a US official.

US strikes military targets on Iran's strategic Kharg Island, US official says. Follow live updates. https://t.co/AVHULUqdff https://t.co/slJOnymX4B

93,376 views149 rt448 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FoxNewsverified28,702,008 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The US bombed dozens of Iranian military targets on Kharg Island overnight, including bunkers, a radar station, and ammunition storage, according to a senior US official.

🚨BREAKING: US bombs dozens of Iranian military targets on Kharg Island overnight, including bunkers, radar station, ammunition storage, senior US official tells @JenGriffinFNC https://t.co/g6gXkdR8sQ https://t.co/57HsGlPOgx

523,990 views2,223 rt8,341 likesER:0.0018RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,652,971 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

President Trump threatened to bomb Iran's electricity infrastructure starting Tuesday unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump said ‘Tuesday will be power plant day’ and added that the US plans to start bombing electricity infrastructure unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera’s Hala Al Shami looks at the dangers of potential attacks. https://t.co/iHUSM0Haye

34,903 views53 rt130 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TruthTrumpPostverified307,461 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

A railway bridge near Amin Abad in Zanjan, Iran, was struck in a US-Israeli attack, and President Trump set a deadline of Tuesday 8 PM ET for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

WATCH: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 In Zanjan, Iran, a railway bridge near Amin Abad was struck in a US ‑ Israeli attack. President Donald Trump has set a deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM ET for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/3Cw5faJVdc

99,464 views37 rt288 likesER:0.0033RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,519,945 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

President Trump stated that Washington will proceed with its established plans on Iran once the deadline has expired.

BREAKING: President Donald Trump tells US media that Washington will proceed with its established plans on Iran once the deadline has expired. https://t.co/ZZV787lEA9

91,846 views197 rt758 likesER:0.0019RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SkyNewsverified8,741,913 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social, threatening that "a whole civilization will die tonight," seemingly referring to his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"A whole civilization will die tonight" Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social, seemingly referring to his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He adds "maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?". https://t.co/USH18TtBJS https://t.co/aBmVsfla40

680,858 views356 rt1,466 likesER:0.0010RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,807,777 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Tucker Carlson claims Trump is considering using nuclear weapons against Iran and urges US military officials to defy such orders.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Tucker Carlson says Trump is considering to use NUKES against IRAN He publicly urges the US military and Pentagon officials to actively defy Donald Trump and refuse orders if he attempts to launch NUCLEAR WEAPONS against Iran https://t.co/0DYbDLYTa8

123,599 views819 rt3,499 likesER:0.0052RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBX_Pressverified111,191 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran has halted ceasefire talks with the US and informed Pakistan it will no longer participate in negotiations.

🚨 BREAKING Iran has halted ceasefire talks with the US and informed Pakistan that it will no longer participate in the negotiations. https://t.co/1LwF3iO5xS

6,883 views8 rt39 likesER:0.0018RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DailyIranNewsverified494,204 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The Guardian reports increasing fears within Trump's advisory circle that the President may consider ordering a nuclear strike on Iran.

BREAKING: ‘There are increasing fears within Trump’s current and former advisory circle that the President may consider ordering a nuclear strike on Iran’ – The Guardian The US is so defeated and humiliated that it’s gonna use Nuclear weapons to regain the lost hegemony lol 😂 https://t.co/NW3O25kwZX

339,967 views525 rt2,153 likesER:0.0256RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@Cilane_Assad240 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran has allegedly placed human shields in front of strategic sites expected to be bombed today.

Irã colocou homens, mulheres e crianças, como escudos humanos, na frente de usinas, em pontes e indústrias estratégicas que devem ser bombardeadas hoje. Oriente Médio não é para os fracos! Iran ENDS peace talks with the US https://t.co/batTL1mFis via @DailyMail

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AlmubshirMahdi14 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

@AryJeay Iran can survive such hits but the artificial US subject states of KSA, Qatar, UAE etc. won't and within that their tyrannical dictatorship authorities would capitulate. Every escalation from the Epstein empire, hurts their interests more and more causing greater damage to them.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@bobbybobbyrees4,925 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Starmer prefers a leading role in coordinating an international response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

@CarolineLucas @CharlesGMaiden Starmer, acting like a key player, prefers a leading role in coordinating an international response to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with a virtual conference! Talking to many but not involving Iran, US or Israel! Avsolutely Pointless! 🤷‍♀️

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SeppHinter4512verified270 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Tehran warns the entire region will sink into darkness due to US-Israeli aggression, and Iran will not open the Strait of Hormuz for empty promises.

War of aggression by Israel and the USA against Iran Tehran: Entire region will sink into complete darkness "The US wants the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will not open them for empty promises," a senior Iranian source told Reuters against the backdrop of the U.S. ultimatum that expires tonight. "If the situation gets out of control, Iran's allies will also close the Bab al-Mandab...

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@PovialJunk392 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

A past war game simulating US vs. Iran reportedly resulted in a decisive US loss, requiring a restart and scripting.

thinking about the most expensive war game in history ($250,000,000) simulating the US vs Iran and the US got their asses handed to them so handily that they had to restart the war game and script it so they won https://t.co/gSrKb9sDyu

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@hippy4evrr15 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

US Rep. Rashida Tlaib urged Trump's Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment following his "genocidal threat" against Iran.

US Rep. Rashida Tlaib on Tuesday urged President Donald Trump's Cabinet to immediately invoke the 25th Amendment and remove him from office following his genocidal threat to wipe out the "whole civilization" of Iran. MORE HERE https://t.co/SicJsGpRuD https://t.co/7Jd2HPTqve

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@mutua_mmutukuverified22 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The situation is getting more complex. US, Isreal, and Iran should resolve the issue as equals.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@the3rdestate_clverified553 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

@mtntallpaul We attacked Iran without asking them...WHY would they sign up to help us?...cl

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Murdock8600100 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

@WomanDefiner End goal is China. China gets oil from Iran and Venezuela. China caused the coof, steals US technology, buying up farm land and property near US bases in states. Iran war is America first in long term with dealing with China.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Truth_Junkie2verified26,157 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

@AskMeLaterOn So do I. But you told me to relocate to Israel because I support Trump taking out Iran's ability to have a nuclear weapon. You realize Iran would also use it on us right? Yet you are hysterical about Israel helping us. Why is that other than you hate jews?

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0045	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9955	800,779.93	+$289,014.29
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9955	620,990.26	+$233,371.24
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0045	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9955	130,947.76	+$50,062.24
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9955	175,760.61	+$47,514.68
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9955	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9955	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9955	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9955	0	+$35,796.86