Trade Report :

$112,067 For US Forces Enter Iran — Polymarket Whale Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0xddd676d9a78e3b7ee897b21f9bc71cdfb6d2aafc

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$112,066.74

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-08 01:36:45 ET

Time

0xddd676d9a78e3b7ee897b21f9bc71cdfb6d2aafc placed $112,066.74 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $203,400,173.014, 24h volume $85,312,213.487, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $112,066.74 becomes $112,178.74 (profit $112)
If wrong, loses $112,067

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just parked $112,067 on "US forces enter Iran: Yes."

For a princely $112 profit.

That's a 1000:1 risk-to-reward. Not trading, just risking a yacht for a gumball.

Market's at 99.9% Yes, fueled by whispers of downed F-15s.

Meanwhile, actual smart money whales bought at $0.60.

They banked $200k+ profits. And *exited*.

This guy? He's their liquidity provider.

Betting $112,067 on an oracle's *exact* definition of "physically enter"?

It's a semantic minefield.

This isn't a trade; it's a donation.

Risking everything for $112 is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

An absolute masterclass in how to be exit liquidity.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$203,400,173.014

24h Volume

$85,312,213.487

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel, specifically for operational purposes, deliberately enter Iran's land territory by the deadline. It resolves "No" if these specific conditions are not met, excluding accidental entry, sea/air entry, or entry by non-military personnel like contractors or diplomats.

Timeline

The market's outcome depends on events happening at any point up to the specified deadline, which is given in Eastern Time (ET). The exact resolution date after the deadline is not specified.

Source

The final outcome will be determined by a general agreement among reliable news sources and reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly think military contractors, intelligence operatives, or personnel on diplomatic missions count, or that entry into Iran's airspace or waters would qualify. Another common misunderstanding could be believing accidental entry, like a pilot being shot down, would lead to a "Yes" resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, US Iran invasion, US troops Iran

Relevant tweets: 36

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The market's still asking "US forces enter Iran by...?" Honey, the US *already did*. F-15 pilots, rescue teams, drones — CENTCOM confirmed "Operation Epic Fury," Trump thanked S&R. This isn't a "what if," it's a "what already happened."

Now, the 2-week ceasefire? A diplomatic fig leaf, announced April 7/8, 2026. Iran and US both screaming "VICTORY" like two toddlers claiming the last cookie. Netanyahu's still shelling Lebanon, so much for "peace."

The real bet isn't on the war, it's on the *rulebook*. If "entering" means any physical presence, even briefly, for a downed pilot? This market's a screaming "YES." Whales aren't waiting for a D-Day parade; they're reading the fine print. Are you?

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@RT_com3,483,190 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/c12LwJM1yW

246,340 views1,636 rt9,694 likesER:0.0122RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,524,754 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's 10-point demands, reported via state media and Pakistani mediators, include no further US aggression and a permanent end to war.

@realsigmatiger @mitchellvii Iran's 10-point demands (per state media via Pakistani mediators): 1. No further US aggression against Iran. 2. Permanent end to war on Iran & Axis of Resistance (Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen). 3. Full US withdrawal of forces from region. 4. Strait of Hormuz reopened under Iranian armed forces coordination. 5. Secure Hormuz transit protocol with Iranian control. 6. Full compe...

34 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,524,754 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The US, Iran, and Israel agreed to a tentative 2-week ceasefire, announced late April 7/early April 8, 2026, with Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

@10xgemhunter The US, Iran, and Israel agreed to a tentative 2-week ceasefire announced late April 7/early April 8, 2026. Key terms: - Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz for safe, full commercial shipping (coordinated by Iranian armed forces; possible new fees with Oman). - US suspends all bombing/attacks on Iran for 2 weeks. - Israel halts strikes on Iran (but not its Lebanon ops vs....

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,659,633 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Israeli forces reportedly shelled Baraachit in south Lebanon after PM Netanyahu's office stated the US-Iran ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

BREAKING: Israeli forces reportedly shelled Baraachit in south Lebanon after PM Netanyahu’s office said the US‑Iran two‑week ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” despite Pakistan’s PM saying it does. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/9YvbvxfUvc https://t.co/ekhMhmKhWU

45,520 views379 rt522 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,639 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Celebrations erupted in Baghdad following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US.

Celebrations have erupted in Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US. Iraq had been pulled into the war with pro-Iran armed groups and US forces carrying out attacks on each other. https://t.co/nehmi8JTyC

129,241 views905 rt3,208 likesER:0.0084RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlArabiya_Eng875,792 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

CENTCOM stated that US forces launched one-way attack drones into Iran during Operation Epic Fury.

CENTCOM says US forces have launched one-way attack drones into Iran during Operation Epic Fury. https://t.co/s2MHcsJ4At

2,361 views1 rt5 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@nypostverified3,728,327 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

President Trump vowed to find the leaker who revealed that US forces were unable to rescue a second F-15 pilot shot down over Iran.

President Trump vowed to catch the “leaker” who revealed that US forces were not immediately able to rescue the second F-15 pilot shot down over Iran. https://t.co/lWCzoKNb6f

10,819 views10 rt109 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FoxNewsverified28,709,827 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

President Trump thanked US Armed Forces members involved in search and rescue operations in Iran.

'GOD WAS WATCHING US': President Trump takes a moment to thank "every member of the U.S. Armed Forces" involved in the search and rescue operations in Iran. https://t.co/521AALb3zc

97,971 views744 rt3,731 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Tasnimnews_EN113,879 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran's Armed Forces will continue to oversee maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire with the US.

Iran’s Armed Forces will continue to oversee all maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week ceasefire with the US. https://t.co/Gqc55eUS6x

3,300 views24 rt73 likesER:0.0049RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ILRedAlertverified72,422 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US CENTCOM stated that US forces launched one-way attack drones into Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury.

US CENTCOM says U.S. forces launched one-way attack drones into Iran last night as part of Operation Epic Fury. Hundreds of drones are now integrated into offensive and defensive operations, operating in the air, at sea, undersea, and on the ground, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper says.

14,908 views19 rt55 likesER:0.0060RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,639 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran claims to have struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/Zeh8DcVlRF

31,758 views180 rt1,009 likesER:0.0018RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@warsurvverified185,925 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Britain pulled its forces from Iraq, becoming the second country after Spain to exit since the Iran War.

🚨BREAKING: 🇬🇧 UK PM Keir Starmer has openly revolted against Trump! Britain just pulled its forces from 🇮🇶 Iraq — the 2nd country after 🇪🇸 Spain to exit since the Iran War. Trump wanted to isolate Iran… but the US is now getting globally isolated instead! This is straight-up 6D chess 🔥

946 views3 rt11 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,639 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, according to an Iranian spokesperson.

BREAKING: Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Ebrahim Zolfaghari said in a video statement shared by state media. https://t.co/GLwEkjLJFX

87,286 views472 rt2,106 likesER:0.0046RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,659,633 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

CENTCOM stated that US forces have attacked over 13,000 Iranian targets.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East and is leading the attacks on Iran, said its forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/dwWzI0s5p1 https://t.co/4w2TGC1oIB

17,424 views3 rt28 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@anadoluagencyverified280,636 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Multiple explosions were heard in Baghdad due to exchanges of attacks between US forces and Iran-backed militias.

Multiple explosions have been heard in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, as US forces and Iran-backed militias have exchanged attacks https://t.co/txYN3DMM74

2,354 views20 rt37 likesER:0.0016RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,525,639 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran claims to have struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/YDd9GbPf1S

30,134 views82 rt563 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@TimesofIsraelverified644,913 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Russian satellites have provided detailed imagery surveys to help Iran strike US forces and other targets across the Middle East.

Russian satellites have made dozens of detailed imagery surveys of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East to help Iran strike US forces and other targets, including critical infrastructure in Israel, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment seen by Reuters this week and a source quoted in Israeli media. Read more on The Times of Israel: https://t.co/cXi8HSoYSP

3,702 views8 rt33 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DougAMacgregorverified666,788 flwQ:4/5analysisbullish

Iran's standoff attack weapons are capable of applying precise, devastating firepower against US armed forces, which will change 21st-century warfare.

The application of precise, devastating firepower from Iran's standoff attack weapons in all domains of warfare against the US armed forces is going to change the 21st century. FULL ARTICLE: https://t.co/U3pMmWJuN7 https://t.co/KlkfJlpIOl

54,043 views239 rt939 likesER:0.0086RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@businessverified9,944,713 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Nuclear officials are raising alarms about a potential region-wide radiological event if US or Israeli forces target Iranian power plants.

With the clock ticking on US strikes against Iranian power plants, nuclear officials are raising the alarm over a region-wide radiological event if Israeli or US forces target the Persian Gulf nation’s Bushehr nuclear plant https://t.co/Jl8sREG06y

21,882 views42 rt112 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IRanMediacoverified112,969 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Britain withdrew its forces from US bases in Iraq.

BREAKING: Britain withdraws its forces from US bases in Iraq.

1,137,104 views1,542 rt15,819 likesER:0.4130RR:10.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@MA_whisperer12 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US accepted the general framework of Iran's 10-point plan, which includes the US withdrawing its military forces from the region and lifting economic sanctions.

@BlackBondPtv USA LOSTthe US had accepted the "general framework" of the Iranian 10-point plan. That plan includes the US withdrawing its military forces from the region, lifting economic sanctions on Iran, paying compensation for war damages and allowing Iran to maintain control over Hormuz.

15 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@tcf_updatesverified462 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

IRGC claims victory as the US accepted Iran's 10-point proposal as part of a two-week ceasefire deal.

🚨 IRGC CLAIMS WIN AS US ACCEPTS IRAN’S 10‑POINT TERMS. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says the US has agreed to its 10‑point proposal as part of a two‑week ceasefire deal. Iran calls the move a major victory and credits its armed forces for securing the terms. The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pausing military strikes, and starting talks in Islamabad. Both sides...

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@kimrampling261 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Trump stated that the US received Iran's 10-point proposal, which includes the withdrawal of US combat forces, and believes it is a workable basis for negotiation.

True to form we now have the mother of all TACOS. “We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate,” Trump wrote. Point 9: Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region. Right.

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DenisPequin416 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran forces a ceasefire, leading the US to halt strikes for two weeks.

IRAN FORCES CEASEFIRE: US Halts Strikes FOR 2 WEEKS As Tehran Declares H... https://t.co/tqHXff4pHk via @YouTube @CTVToronto @CTVVancouver @CTVNews @IranArmyMedia @cnnbrk @realstewpeters @TCNetwork @TuckerCarlson @ChrisPequin @freedom_pty @netanyahu @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/yKdayElh4l

19 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@StatsSphere34 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a two-week US ceasefire arrangement.

Update: Iran agrees to allow safe passage through Strait of Hormuz as part of the two-week US ceasefire arrangement. Coordination with armed forces planned. #iranhormuz #ceasefire #breaking

145 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:4.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DuniaDaily932 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's demands include the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region and an end to all wars.

6️⃣ End all UN Security Council resolutions 7️⃣ End all IAEA Board resolutions 8️⃣ Compensation to Iran 9️⃣ Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region 🔟 Stop all wars, including against Lebanese Islamic Resistance 2/3

24 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0011RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AdvDhillonJuttverified4,621 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's demand includes the withdrawal of US forces and ending foreign military presence across the Middle East.

9. Withdrawal of US Forces — Ending Foreign Military Presence Across the Middle East, the United States maintains military bases, troops, and strategic operations. For Iran, this presence is seen as a direct threat—right at its doorstep. Iran’s demand is clear: All US forces must withdraw from the region. Why does this matter? 👉 From Iran’s view: • Reduces risk of sudden conflict • Ends what it s...

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@researchUSAIverified1,216 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The US forced Iran into a ceasefire, with Trump declaring "TOTAL VICTORY."

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: US Forces Iran to Ceasefire Trump: "TOTAL VICTORY!" Tehran Delusions Exposed! 🤡💥 source: @afpfr https://t.co/9Ig7xNAMUF

27 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@johannglassverified147 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The tweet sarcastically suggests that international sanctions will be lifted and US forces will leave the region, also mentioning a statement by Trump.

@Noahpinion oh yeah it will collect 90 gabillion while under international sanctions (they will be lifted and US forces will leave the region) the elephant in the room is that trump told them "open the strait or else" and then iran opened the strait, and people are taking extreme psychic damage accepting this simple fact

179 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0204RR:1.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@julianrinaldiverified445 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The tweet expresses skepticism that Trump agreed to Iran's 10-point list, including allowing uranium enrichment and pulling out US forces from the Middle East.

@bendreyfuss Anyone who believed Trump agreed to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium, and agreed to pulling out all US forces from the Middle East (or anything on that 10 point list), and is running around like that actually happened, and we lost, might be so TDS deranged and retarded that I don't even understand how they're able to type a coherent sentence. Where will they pivot to next when...

25 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (4)

RETAIL@CrismaStar_verified30 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Britain pulled its forces from Iraq, becoming the second country after Spain to exit since the Iran War.

30 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AliAman1988verified1,723 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The media will portray Iran as having the upper hand, but forces will secretly re-arm and re-stock, bringing forces to Hormuz.

They wil Make it Look like Iran has the upper hand. Media will take over saying US accepted Iran Now theywill secretly fix their israel AD, re arm and re stock bring forces to hormuz with with deal to open hormuz. While within iran, with the help of their CIA bots and mossad, another arm riot to make iran internally destabilize. start bombing again with assassinations of heads inside iran whil...

14 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ashkan_Atheistverified2,732 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

From inside of Iran: Tehran is no longer beautiful. Do not leave us alone with these savages. You made them even more savage, so do not leave us alone with them. You created the conditions that allowed them to arm thousands of like-minded forces and deploy them in the streets, so do not abandon us to them. At 4 a.m., I woke up to the sound of a victory march blasting from a Mazda pickup truck ...

35 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0011RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Dani_Iuliana238 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

@jacksonhinklle Iran, China, Rusia being the most sane, coherent and intelligent forces in the world was not on my 2026 list. Trump made me see and realize how blind I was by their bs propaganda, Iran is a beautiful country with strong intelligent people...US is, whatever

193 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0042RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0015	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	620,990.26	+$235,234.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	138,947.76	+$50,499.21
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	175,760.61	+$48,041.97
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86