Trade Report :

99% Sure: US Forces Won't Enter Iran, Per $111,955 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

0xddd676d9a78e3b7ee897b21f9bc71cdfb6d2aafc

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$111,954.56

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-08 01:43:49 ET

Time

0xddd676d9a78e3b7ee897b21f9bc71cdfb6d2aafc placed $111,954.56 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $203,699,209.384, 24h volume $85,564,770.837, heat level: Very Hot.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $111,954.56 becomes $112,178.56 (profit $224)
If wrong, loses $111,955

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just *sold* "Yes" on "US forces enter Iran" for $111,955, leaving $224 on the table. This isn't about chasing the last penny, it's about capital *velocity*. The market's at 99.8% for "Yes," but "practically certain" is where rookie portfolios get liquidated.

Our savvy trader is sidestepping a resolution rule landmine: "military special ops" count, "intelligence operatives" don't. Those "destroyed US Black Hawks" could be CIA, not DoD. Imagine losing $111,955 over a semantic quibble. This whale just paid a $224 insurance premium to avoid a potential oracle dispute.

Smart money already exited. They're freeing up $111,955 to hunt actual alpha, not wait for UMA to make up its mind. A surgical exit. Pure institutional discipline. *Jealous*.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$203,699,209.384

24h Volume

$85,564,770.837

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date; otherwise, it resolves "No." This excludes intelligence operatives, contractors, diplomatic personnel, and non-deliberate entries like pilots being shot down.

Timeline

The key timeline is the deadline for the event to occur, which is "by the listed date (ET)." Other specific resolution dates or effective times are not detailed in these rules.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible news reports and information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly believe that any US personnel entering Iran, or entry into its air or sea space, or non-deliberate entry, would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 34

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"Peace breaks out!" they shout, buying the rumor. But hold your horses, or rather, your Black Hawks. US forces *already* entered Iran on a "rescue mission," leaving wreckage. That's boots on the ground, folks. If "enter Iran" includes *any* military presence, the market's pricing a ghost.

This 2-week ceasefire, slated for April 2026 (yes, 2026!), is flimsier than a politician's promise, with Israel still shelling Lebanon. Retail's piling into "No," betting on withdrawal. Whales? They're deep in the resolution criteria. If "special ops" counts, you're buying "Yes" while the masses panic-sell. If it's only conventional invasion, "No" is your play. Don't get caught in the diplomatic theater's glare; read the script.

KOL — High Relevance (4)

KOL@realnikohouseverified95,446 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A ground invasion in Iran has begun.

The ground invasion in Iran has begun and it’s going just as horrible as we thought it would.

1,936 views31 rt106 likesER:0.0076RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The US conducted a high-risk rescue mission inside Iran, using heavy force including dropping 100 bombs from B-1 bombers.

During a high-risk rescue mission inside Iran, the US used heavy force, dropping around 100 large bombs from B-1 bombers to secure the area, destroy roads, and keep Iranian forces away from the extraction site. - WSJ

3,833 views2 rt15 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,019 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The U.S. and Israel are bombing infrastructure in Iran, reportedly in preparation for a ground invasion.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 BREAKING: The U.S. & Israel are bombing bridges, railways & power transmission lines today in Iran They are prepping for a ground invasion after their FAILED Isfahan uranium heist...

128,077 views1,415 rt5,143 likesER:0.0088RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran.

🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran. https://t.co/Rr0dHHQjMv

5,703 views22 rt165 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@warsurvverified185,927 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Britain pulled its forces from Iraq, following Spain, since the Iran War.

🚨BREAKING: 🇬🇧 UK PM Keir Starmer has openly revolted against Trump! Britain just pulled its forces from 🇮🇶 Iraq — the 2nd country after 🇪🇸 Spain to exit since the Iran War. Trump wanted to isolate Iran… but the US is now getting globally isolated instead! This is straight-up 6D chess 🔥

1,256 views5 rt18 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, according to an Iranian military spokesperson.

BREAKING: Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Ebrahim Zolfaghari said in a video statement shared by state media. https://t.co/GLwEkjLJFX

87,288 views471 rt2,099 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

CENTCOM stated that US forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East and is leading the attacks on Iran, said its forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/dwWzI0s5p1 https://t.co/4w2TGC1oIB

17,427 views3 rt28 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Celebrations erupted in Baghdad following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US.

Celebrations have erupted in Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the US. Iraq had been pulled into the war with pro-Iran armed groups and US forces carrying out attacks on each other. https://t.co/nehmi8JTyC

130,279 views911 rt3,232 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Britain withdraws its forces from US bases in Iraq.

BREAKING: Britain withdraws its forces from US bases in Iraq.

1,137,798 views1,545 rt15,835 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran claims to have struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/Zeh8DcVlRF

31,772 views179 rt1,009 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, according to a military spokesperson.

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, military spokesperson says - https://t.co/LYprpGZW6X

3,203 views7 rt31 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran claims to have struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/YDd9GbPf1S

30,134 views82 rt563 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, according to a military spokesperson.

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, military spokesperson says https://t.co/aeS3UTEn2v https://t.co/aeS3UTEn2v

43,976 views99 rt437 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@0 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Britain withdraws its forces from US bases in Iraq.

185,285 views140 rt1,256 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@tcf_updatesverified462 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

IRGC claims victory as the US accepts Iran's 10-point terms as part of a two-week ceasefire deal.

🚨 IRGC CLAIMS WIN AS US ACCEPTS IRAN’S 10‑POINT TERMS. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says the US has agreed to its 10‑point proposal as part of a two‑week ceasefire deal. Iran calls the move a major victory and credits its armed forces for securing the terms. The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, pausing military strikes, and starting talks in Islamabad. Both sides...

8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@kimrampling261 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Trump stated that the US received Iran's 10-point proposal, which includes the withdrawal of US combat forces, and considers it a workable basis for negotiation.

True to form we now have the mother of all TACOS. “We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate,” Trump wrote. Point 9: Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region. Right.

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@CrismaStar_verified30 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Britain pulled its forces from Iraq, following Spain, since the Iran War.

32 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DenisPequin416 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The US halted strikes for two weeks as Iran declared a ceasefire.

IRAN FORCES CEASEFIRE: US Halts Strikes FOR 2 WEEKS As Tehran Declares H... https://t.co/tqHXff4pHk via @YouTube @CTVToronto @CTVVancouver @CTVNews @IranArmyMedia @cnnbrk @realstewpeters @TCNetwork @TuckerCarlson @ChrisPequin @freedom_pty @netanyahu @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/yKdayElh4l

21 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@StatsSphere34 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran agrees to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a two-week US ceasefire arrangement.

Update: Iran agrees to allow safe passage through Strait of Hormuz as part of the two-week US ceasefire arrangement. Coordination with armed forces planned. #iranhormuz #ceasefire #breaking

148 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:4.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@XYOPepe25,189 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Predicts the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region and cessation of war.

This war will continue This the fake pump before the real dump begins Points 9 / 10 will be broken: ✅Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region ✅Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon - Israel will continue bombing #iran

45 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MA_whisperer12 flwQ:2/5newsbearish

The US accepted the 'general framework' of the Iranian 10-point plan, which includes withdrawing US military forces from the region.

@BlackBondPtv USA LOSTthe US had accepted the "general framework" of the Iranian 10-point plan. That plan includes the US withdrawing its military forces from the region, lifting economic sanctions on Iran, paying compensation for war damages and allowing Iran to maintain control over Hormuz.

21 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AliAman1988verified1,723 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Suggests a deceptive strategy where the US will make it look like Iran has the upper hand, secretly re-arm, and bring forces to Hormuz.

They wil Make it Look like Iran has the upper hand. Media will take over saying US accepted Iran Now theywill secretly fix their israel AD, re arm and re stock bring forces to hormuz with with deal to open hormuz. While within iran, with the help of their CIA bots and mossad, another arm riot to make iran internally destabilize. start bombing again with assassinations of heads inside iran whil...

18 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@julianrinaldiverified445 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

Expresses skepticism that Trump agreed to Iran's 10-point list, including pulling out all US forces from the Middle East.

@bendreyfuss Anyone who believed Trump agreed to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium, and agreed to pulling out all US forces from the Middle East (or anything on that 10 point list), and is running around like that actually happened, and we lost, might be so TDS deranged and retarded that I don't even understand how they're able to type a coherent sentence. Where will they pivot to next when...

31 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ashkan_Atheistverified2,732 flwQ:2/5emotionbullish

From inside of Iran: Tehran is no longer beautiful. Do not leave us alone with these savages. You made them even more savage, so do not leave us alone with them. You created the conditions that allowed them to arm thousands of like-minded forces and deploy them in the streets, so do not abandon us to them. At 4 a.m., I woke up to the sound of a victory march blasting from a Mazda pickup truck ...

43 views1 rt3 likesER:0.0084RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0015	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	620,990.26	+$235,234.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	138,947.76	+$50,499.21
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	175,760.61	+$48,041.97
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86