Trade Report : 

A Mystery Trader Bets $93,977 on Warriors vs. Kings: Warriors Win

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-11, data may be outdated
SolMoe   (0x959afc4649fb9ed03c0205070fa114eec4f97b64)
PolyMarket : Warriors vs. Kings
$93,977.08
Trade Amount
BUY Warriors
Trade Side
0.4699
Entry Price
Time

SolMoe placed $93,977.08 BUY Warriors on Polymarket, betting on "Warriors vs. Kings" at odds 0.4699 (market gives 47.0% probability). Total market volume $2,173,727.827, 24h volume $2,109,095.683, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Warriors at 0.4699

Warriors odds at 0.4699, market gives 47.0% chance
Kings
57.5%
Warriors
42.5%
Risk/reward ratio 1.1:1
If correct, $93,977.08 becomes $199,994.08 (profit $106,017)
If wrong, loses $93,977

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $93,977 buying Warriors at 47.0% odds. Apparently, they missed the memo that Steve Kerr pulled Curry and Green, benching them like a magician disappearing a rabbit.

This isn't "contrarian," it's "contrary to reality." Betting on *momentum* when your stars are warming the bench? That's bringing a spoon to a gunfight.

You paid 47.0% for a team the market already priced at 42.5%, bleeding slippage like a stuck pig. Every other top whale, all ten of them, are on Kings, sitting on fat profits from $0.18 entries.

You're the sole outlier, not the farmer. This isn't a trade; it's a $93,977 tuition payment to the school of hard knocks. This whale just became chum.

Market Context: Warriors vs. KingsMarket Page →

Total Volume
$2,173,727.827
24h Volume
$2,109,095.683
Heat
Very Hot
End Date
TBD (To Be Determined)
Created
2026-04-04
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to 'Warriors' if the Warriors win the game, and to 'Kings' if the Kings win. A win is determined by the final score, including any overtime periods.

Timeline

The game is scheduled for April 10 at 10:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed.

Source

The outcome will be determined by the final score of the NBA game, including any overtime periods.

Special Cases

If the game is postponed, the market will stay open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up, the market will resolve 50-50.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be that the market resolves on the scheduled date even if the game is postponed, or that overtime scores are not included in the final result.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Warriors, Kings, Warriors Kings

Relevant tweets: 30

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Warriors vs. Kings? That was a classic bait-and-switch, a financial 'Purple Wedding' for live bettors. Steve Kerr, playing 4D chess, pulled Curry and Draymond late, effectively waving the white flag despite a third-quarter surge.

That Warriors ML +125 was a siren song, luring retail money to its doom. Curry's scoring milestone? Pure historical flavor, utterly irrelevant to *this* game's outcome. The only hustle Kerr cared about was preserving knees.

The real market? The coming Wednesday play-in: Warriors vs. Clippers. That's where the smart money is already dancing. Avoid the end-of-season chaos; coaches prioritize health over your parlay. Fade the Warriors' immediate game outcomes. Bet on their *rest* for the actual fight.

KOL — High Relevance (8)

KOL@WarriorsPR256,721 flwQ:5/5firsthandneutral
The tweet provides an injury update for LJ Cryer.
LJ Cryer injury update: https://t.co/PNQtcyYVrk
18,378 views21 rt206 likesER:0.0024RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@WarriorsPR256,721 flwQ:5/5firsthandneutral
Stephen Curry has passed Tim Duncan (26,496 career points) for 19th place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.
Stephen Curry has passed Tim Duncan (26,496 career points) for 19th place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.
4,306 views29 rt225 likesER:0.0031RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@warriorsverified8,322,238 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Charles Bassey is playing with hustle.
Charles Bassey playing with hustle 📺@NBAonPrime https://t.co/QKvfKJrILD
22,768 views32 rt607 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@warriorsverified8,322,238 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
A play involving '30' (likely Steph Curry) passing to 'Big Al' (likely Al Horford).
30 ➡️ Big Al 📺 @NBCSAuthentic https://t.co/fXdK0gXFJU
10,612 views23 rt228 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@TheHoopCentralverified1,656,914 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Steph Curry has passed Tim Duncan for 19th place on the NBA all-time scoring list.
BREAKING — Steph Curry passes Tim Duncan for No. 19 on the NBA all-time scoring list. 👏🔥 https://t.co/runw79TSdY
31,323 views113 rt1,745 likesER:0.0024RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@warriorsverified8,322,238 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
BP scored back-to-back three-pointers.
BP back-to-back triples 📺 @NBCSAuthentic https://t.co/Ky2Q52Rmu2
11,142 views12 rt183 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@WorldWideWobverified1,139,228 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The tweet speculates that Doug Christie might intentionally foul Draymond after the ball is tipped in the Kings vs. Warriors game tonight.
The Kings are playing the Warriors again tonight, which means Doug Christie has an opportunity to do the funniest thing of the season: foul Draymond intentionally after the ball is tipped. The last time something similar happened, it produced a GIF that still lives to this day. https://t.co/uTBkXjwBUF
207,353 views111 rt3,041 likesER:0.0046RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
KOL@MikeS172032 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
The tweet alleges that the NBA is involved in rigging games with casinos, implying that outcomes are predetermined.
@zachjs91 @Cologne810 @warriors @NBCSAuthentic They do this every night. No one gets in trouble because everyone is in on it. NBA has direct partnerships with the casinos
37 views0 rt1 likesER:0.5000RR:18.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (1)

KOL@JonesOnTheNBA74,617 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
If the Blazers do not lose to the Kings on Sunday, the Warriors will play in LA on Wednesday.
As long as Blazers don’t blow Sunday v Kings, Warriors play in LA on Wednesday
174 views1 rt3 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@jinthirtyverified24,467 flwQ:4/5firsthandneutral
The tweet describes a sequence of game events including Melton winning the jump ball, Horford scoring a 3-pointer, and Steph Curry receiving a technical foul with the Warriors bench reacting.
Melton wins jump ball ➡️ Al Horford 3-pointer ➡️ Steph Curry getting a tech ➡️ whole Warriors bench chirping and barking back 😂 https://t.co/xA7WAmTcBT
1,749 views7 rt89 likesER:0.0094RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@James_HamNBAverified41,315 flwQ:4/5newsbearish
The Kings lead the Warriors 63-51 at halftime, with Nique Clifford and Devin Carter each scoring 12 points and Malik Monk adding 11 points.
Kings lead the Warriors 63-51 heading to the half. Nique Clifford and Devin Carter each have 12 points. 11 points for Malik Monk off the bench.
1,118 views0 rt6 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@MattGeorgeSACverified21,295 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
The Warriors had a 38-19 third quarter.
38-19 3rd quarter for the Warriors https://t.co/oyUoCMJWks
688 views0 rt10 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@BabyFaceDubs7,541 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
The Warriors are in a close game ('dogfight') with the tanking Kings.
Warriors in a dogfight with the tanking Kings ✌🏻😭 https://t.co/fR7W15Kp76
1,544 views3 rt42 likesER:0.0135RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@WMcchance23 flwQ:3/5newsbullish
The Warriors moneyline is +125.
Warriors ML +125
0 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0435RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TheDom45294 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
The Warriors did not play Steph and Draymond at the end of the game, leading to questions about tanking.
Warriors not playing Steph and Draymond at the end of the game and Draymond is complaining about us tanking?
34 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Sheridanblogverified13,654 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The tweet expresses an opinion that Steve Kerr has not utilized a 4-guard lineup or played Draymond at center despite the Warriors' bigs being healthy.
With all the bigs back for the Warriors, Steve Kerr has done nothing close to running a 4G lineup or playing Draymond at C. That's been the dream for me for months now, bodies just needed to get healthy
1,182 views2 rt39 likesER:0.0058RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@James_HamNBAverified41,315 flwQ:3/5newsbearish
Steph Curry received a technical foul from the Warriors bench.
Tech on Steph Curry from the Warriors bench.
1,253 views0 rt7 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Jorge0522_45 flwQ:2/5emotionbearish
Mis guerreros están jugando para perder con un equipo de tanking???? Que mierda es esto
5 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0222RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Sheridanblogverified13,654 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
The tweet expresses the opinion that Devin Carter is affecting the Warriors' mental game, and criticizes the Warriors for being 'soft.'
Devin Carter is in the head of the Warriors. Stop being soft and just play basketball.
1,365 views1 rt17 likesER:0.0027RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (7)

RETAIL@BrandonRahbarverified46,442 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
The Blazers beat the Clippers, and if Portland beats the Kings on Sunday, they will clinch the 8th spot, placing the Clippers in the 9th spot to potentially play the Warriors.
Blazers beat the Clippers. If Portland beats the Kings on Sunday, they will clinch the 8 spot. Clippers will be in the 9 spot. Clippers would have to beat the Warriors in LA and then the Suns or Blazers on the road to make the playoffs. OKC owns LAC’s 2026 1st unprotected.
140 views1 rt7 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Gmona48verified2,916 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Portland had significant runs (30-7 in first, 20-5 in fourth) in their game, and the Clippers will play the Warriors twice in the next five days.
Portland: 30-7 run in the first. 20-5 run in the 4th. That will win you close games. The Clippers will now play the Warriors twice in the next 5 days.
106 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@lebron_sccp578 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The tweet discusses a potential playoff scenario where the loser of Clippers vs Warriors is eliminated, and the winner plays Suns or Blazers.
Clippers vs Warriors. Quem perder esta fora e quem vencer joga contra Suns ou Blazers. Loucura.
6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@ShootersShoot969 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The Warriors and Clippers will play in the first play-in game.
Warriors clippers first play in game✌️
52 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Lakersallthewa32,362 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
The tweet compares LeBron's performance to other teams' schedules, mentioning 'Santa Cruz Warriors' as a weak opponent.
We gave Bron almost 2 months as 2nd option and he did non of this. We not playing tanking Mavs, Santa Cruz Warriors and a Suns team without Booker that has 1 win against a winning team in over a month every game.
107 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@purplefranchise3,530 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
The tweet speculates on draft pick implications depending on whether the Clippers beat or lose to the Warriors.
clips beat warriors so my dubs get a high pick clips lose to warriors sending deni to get touched by okc whi goes to GS https://t.co/8I1MR57IhJ
15 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@RobertWafer10 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@FastbreakHoops5 Never seen Livingston miss during that warriors run
32 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:3.2Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Kings positions. Largest position: 112,283.67 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684Kings0.18000.5750112,283.67+$44,352.05
20x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1Kings0.52570.575038,834.73+$37,940.34
30xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319Kings0.35820.575095,421.28+$25,018.38
40x2005d16a84ceefa912d4e380cd32e7ff827875eaKings0.37380.575083,047.44+$19,818.68
50xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76aKings0.40830.575065,659.79+$15,190.21
60xa71093cafc0c099b4ccab24c3cb8018d817923c4Kings0.19000.575036,708.36+$14,132.72
70x1bc0d88ca86b9049cf05d642e634836d5ddf4429Kings0.19000.575028,295.3+$10,893.69
80x32ed517a571c01b6e9adecf61ba81ca48ff2f960Kings0.38900.575055,196.11+$10,422.38
90xa73a1952f1f0d94aeb396ffdaf7e111a8eab656aKings0.53320.57506,875.59+$9,430.53
100xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Kings0.00000.57509,429.55+$5,421.99
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