Trade Report : 

40% Sure: Spurs Won't Win Trail Blazers NBA Game, Per $109K Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
beachboy4   (0xc2e7800b5af46e6093872b177b7a5e7f0563be51)
PolyMarket : Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
$109,607.75
Trade Amount
BUY Trail Blazers
Trade Side
0.4
Entry Price
Time

beachboy4 placed $109,607.75 BUY Trail Blazers on Polymarket, betting on "Trail Blazers vs. Spurs" at odds 0.4 (market gives 40.0% probability). Total market volume $929,937.365, 24h volume $801,307.614, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Trail Blazers at 0.4

Trail Blazers odds at 0.4, market gives 40.0% chance
Spurs
60.5%
Trail Blazers
39.5%
Risk/reward ratio 1.5:1
If correct, $109,607.75 becomes $274,018.75 (profit $164,411)
If wrong, loses $109,608

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Trail Blazers to win? A whale just slammed $109,608 on the underdog, betting against 40% odds. This isn't a gamble; it's a high-conviction "I know something you don't" play. We're talking asymmetric info, likely a lineup bombshell the market hasn't digested.

This isn't just a trade; it's an earthquake. Our whale represents 13.68% of the 24-hour volume, forcing the market to adjust. It's a "sharp vs. sharp" slugfest: 8 top wallets echo the call, but a counter-whale holds 150,000 Spurs shares.

If their intel is gold, $164,411 profit awaits. If not, even the sharpest knives sometimes cut themselves. They're locked in, no easy exit from 11.79% of the market. High conviction, high stakes. A good trade, if their model isn't just wishful thinking.

Market Context: Trail Blazers vs. SpursMarket Page →

Total Volume
$929,937.365
24h Volume
$801,307.614
Heat
Hot
End Date
2026-04-09
Created
2026-04-02
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to 'Trail Blazers' if the Trail Blazers win the game, and to 'Spurs' if the Spurs win. The winner is determined by the final score, including any overtime periods.

Timeline

The game is scheduled for April 8 at 9:30 PM ET. If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until it has been completed.

Source

The outcome will be determined based on the official final score of the game, including any overtime periods.

Special Cases

If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up, the market will resolve 50-50.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding could be overlooking that overtime periods are included in determining the final winner. Another might be misinterpreting the 50-50 resolution for a complete game cancellation.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Trail Blazers, Spurs, Blazers

Relevant tweets: 0

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs? The market's a clear-cut case of Moby Dick vs. the plankton. Whales are *all in* on the Blazers. Their deep pockets are moving mountains. Retail sentiment, meanwhile, is a scattered flock, buzzing about the Spurs but without conviction.

This isn't a guess-and-check. It's a follow-the-money moment. When the leviathans chart a course, you don't second-guess their navigation. You don't swim against that current. You ride the wake. Ignore the noise. Their conviction isn't a hunch; it's a calculated bet. Dive in with the giants.

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Trail Blazers positions. Largest position: 150,000 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Trail Blazers0.00000.39509,359.71+$3,697.08
20xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76aTrail Blazers0.39990.395046,484.41+$3,323.99
30xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Spurs0.00000.60504,116.28+$2,490.35
40xff36c717909a7bad60e74eed3418009ff481e757Trail Blazers0.35100.39500+$1,312.37
50xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff523aafbdbbd40cTrail Blazers0.00000.39502,240.15+$884.86
60x52ed504e3c3c7cfceaa61dc4f23a6e29d79f8db7Trail Blazers0.30830.39500.01+$862.63
70xacdfb794e0a4968d572283d16818eddbc534f80aTrail Blazers0.34980.39500.01+$776.09
80xb45a797faa52b0fd8adc56d30382022b7b12192cSpurs0.60000.6050150,000+$750
90x62fb171d1ead8281d38074927ea2507eaa444d60Trail Blazers0.30600.39500+$596.74
100xbde579ead903b9cf5c3fc4be5a0c515464769c38Trail Blazers0.39000.395025,886.52+$581.91
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