$75,389 Bet: Celta de Vigo Falls to Freiburg — Polymarket Whale Bet
imnotawizard placed $75,389.03 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg" (RC Celta de Vigo) at odds 0.47 (market gives 47.0% probability). Total market volume $696,812.201, 24h volume $692,154.735, heat level: Hot.
Odds Analysis: RC Celta de Vigo, No at 0.47
If correct, $75,389.03 becomes $160,402.03 (profit $85,013)
If wrong, loses $75,389
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Some brave soul just dropped $75,389 betting RC Celta de Vigo *won't* win, with 0 days left on the clock. Potential profit? A cool $85,013. This isn't just pocket change; it's 10.82% of the market volume. A real "hold my beer" moment.
They plunged in at 47.0% implied probability, a contrarian play against the "Yes" whale faction that previously dominated. Now it's a whale civil war: 5 vs. 5, a true market standoff where both sides are already profitable. Like a high-stakes poker game where everyone's got a good hand.
And for the ultimate Hail Mary, if the game gets canceled? Our hero still wins. Talk about a golden parachute. Verdict? Average to Good. High conviction, solid math, but swimming upstream against the dominant capital. A bold move, but let's see if this contrarian whale becomes a legend or just another cautionary tale.
Market Context: RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg RC Celta de VigoMarket Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves "Yes" if RC Celta de Vigo wins the game within the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise, it resolves "No", including if the game is canceled without a make-up. The market specifically excludes outcomes from extra time or penalty shootouts.
The market is based on a game initially scheduled for April 16, 2026, but will remain open until the game is completed if it is postponed. Official statistics are expected within two hours of the game's conclusion.
The outcome is determined by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If official statistics are not published within two hours, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is played. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market will resolve "No".
A common misunderstanding might be that the outcome includes extra time or penalty shootouts, but only the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time counts.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Celta Vigo, SC Freiburg, Celta Freiburg
Relevant tweets: 0
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 5 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 200,262.41 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xb768891e3130f6df18214ac804d4db76c2c37730 | Yes | 0.0000 | 0.5350 | 18,495.43 | +$9,895.05 |
| 2 | 0xb768891e3130f6df18214ac804d4db76c2c37730 | No | 0.0000 | 0.4650 | 4,756.67 | +$2,211.85 |
| 3 | 0x72b40c0012682ef52228ad53ef955f9e4f177d67 | Yes | 0.5100 | 0.5350 | 83,796.98 | +$2,094.92 |
| 4 | 0xb90494d9a5d8f71f1930b2aa4b599f95c344c255 | Yes | 0.5300 | 0.5350 | 119,008.17 | +$1,785.12 |
| 5 | 0xfd2930a094c0a6900a2dc947e5db462d11ae77ae | Yes | 0.5280 | 0.5350 | 200,262.41 | +$1,382.81 |
| 6 | 0x08f0ee219134c06cbca53508c49738098ac0b809 | No | 0.4600 | 0.4650 | 0.04 | +$1,214 |
| 7 | 0x3b5c629f114098b0dee345fb78b7a3a013c7126e | Yes | 0.5300 | 0.5350 | 0 | +$600 |
| 8 | 0x525e4001f6dad9406dfd84f3331d2b9b95c40b73 | No | 0.0000 | 0.4650 | 1,130.57 | +$525.71 |
| 9 | 0xe72bb501df5306c75c89383d48a1e81073fbb0a0 | No | 0.4600 | 0.4650 | 100,000 | +$500 |
| 10 | 0x37e4728b3c4607fb2b3b205386bb1d1fb1a8c991 | No | 0.4600 | 0.4650 | 75,000 | +$375 |