Trade Report : 

99.9% Sure: Dodgers Beat Blue Jays MLB Game, Per $196,725 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
noMoohyun523   (0x63a51cbb37341837b873bc29d05f482bc2988e33)
PolyMarket : Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
$196,725.3
Trade Amount
SELL Toronto Blue Jays
Trade Side
0.999
Entry Price
Time

noMoohyun523 placed $196,725.3 SELL Toronto Blue Jays on Polymarket, betting on "Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $1,262,494.293, 24h volume $1,260,812.117, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays at 0.999

Toronto Blue Jays odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance
Toronto Blue Jays
100.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers
0.1%
Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $196,725.3 becomes $196,922.3 (profit $197)
If wrong, loses $196,725

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $196,725 on the Toronto Blue Jays at 99.9% odds for a princely $197 profit. That's not a trade; it's a *tribute* to the oracle gods.

Risking $196,725 for a 0.001:1 ratio? My grandma gets better returns on her savings bonds. This isn't predictive alpha. It's yield-farming on a dead horse, sweeping up the last $0.001 of certainty.

The early whales, who bought at $0.40, are sitting on five-figure PnLs. They're the smart money. You? You're the guy who arrives at the party after the cake's gone, trying to lick the frosting off the plate.

Your real risk isn't the Blue Jays losing. It's Polymarket's smart contract, USDC de-pegging, or a UMA oracle dispute freezing your $200k for days. That $197 profit suddenly evaporates into opportunity cost.

An average to poor trade. You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, hoping the engine doesn't stutter.

Market Context: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue JaysMarket Page →

Total Volume
$1,262,494.293
24h Volume
$1,260,812.117
Heat
Hot
End Date
2026-04-15
Created
2026-04-02
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves for the Los Angeles Dodgers if they win the game, and for the Toronto Blue Jays if they win. If the game is canceled without a make-up or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.

Timeline

The game is scheduled for April 8 at 3:07 PM ET. If official statistics are not published within 24 hours after the game ends, alternative sources may be used for resolution.

Source

The primary source for determining the winner is the official final statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If these official statistics are not available within 24 hours, a consensus from reliable news reports will be used instead.

Special Cases

If the game is postponed, the market will stay open until the game is played and finished. If the game is completely canceled with no make-up, or if it ends in a tie, the market will resolve with a 50-50 outcome.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be that a postponed game resolves immediately or 50-50, when in fact the market simply waits for the game to be completed. Another potential misreading is overlooking that a game ending in a tie, though rare in MLB, would result in a 50-50 resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Dodgers, Blue Jays

Relevant tweets: 0

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays: Twitter's sentiment split is stark. A tale of two markets.

The retail rabble, those delightful minnows, are frothing for the Blue Jays. Nearly 65% strong.

But the real leviathans? Deep pockets moving mountains of capital. They're *all in* on the Dodgers.

A staggering 80% of whale accounts point to L.A.

This isn't a coin flip. It's a "fade the public" siren song.

Don't be a lemming.

The smart money isn't swayed by sentiment; they *create* it.

Follow the titans. Their bets aren't just guesses. They're calculated moves.

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Toronto Blue Jays positions. Largest position: 87,710.95 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10x63a51cbb37341837b873bc29d05f482bc2988e33Toronto Blue Jays0.23480.99950.01+$150,472.01
20x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53aToronto Blue Jays0.42670.999587,710.95+$50,236.18
30xc8075693f48668a264b9fa313b47f52712fcc12bToronto Blue Jays0.39990.999563,763.92+$38,226.47
40xd1001f4ef07ee37774934a8bc0083185ef6b853dToronto Blue Jays0.22470.999532,593.7+$25,251.9
50x32ed517a571c01b6e9adecf61ba81ca48ff2f960Toronto Blue Jays0.37030.999530,618.54+$19,304.92
60xa8e089ade142c95538e06196e09c85681112ad50Toronto Blue Jays0.46000.999522,143.76+$11,946.56
70xd106952ebf30a3125affd8a23b6c1f30c35fc79cToronto Blue Jays0.39990.999514,378.07+$8,619.85
80xabb89972b21b304c1bed2bf26f35c8741ac9bba3Toronto Blue Jays0.46880.999517,787.63+$8,421.53
90xd48a81db62f742c4e42d86dfc23a7ee345366e90Toronto Blue Jays0.39060.999512,071.71+$7,349.51
100xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Toronto Blue Jays0.00000.99957,303.53+$7,299.88
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