Trade Report : 

Hawks Beat Cavaliers? $180,048 Bet on Polymarket Says No Way

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis
Feveey   (0xe934f2d7d6358c6c86bfdd5848f1e90412e9640b)
PolyMarket : Hawks vs. Cavaliers
$180,047.72
Trade Amount
BUY Cavaliers
Trade Side
0.52
Entry Price
Time

Feveey placed $180,047.72 BUY Cavaliers on Polymarket, betting on "Hawks vs. Cavaliers" at odds 0.52 (market gives 52.0% probability). Total market volume $295,445.064, 24h volume $295,445.064, heat level: Active.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Cavaliers at 0.52

Cavaliers odds at 0.52, market gives 52.0% chance
Hawks
48.5%
Cavaliers
51.5%
Risk/reward ratio 0.9:1
If correct, $180,047.72 becomes $346,245.72 (profit $166,198)
If wrong, loses $180,048

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just punted $180,048, betting the Cavaliers will win by a *minimum* of 4 points. Talk about conviction. This isn't just a bet; it's a statement.

Sniffing out that sweet, sweet zero-vig entry at 52% implied probability? Genius. You're basically telling sportsbooks to eat dirt. And 8 of the top 10 whales agree. Smart money indeed.

But here’s the kicker: this titan *is* the market. A staggering 60.94% of total volume. You didn't just buy in, pal, you *became* the order book. That's not a position; it's a prison.

Try exiting when Donovan Mitchell suddenly gets a hangnail. There's no door, only a brick wall. You’re locked in, baby.

Good EV play, sure. But as a risk manager, you just jumped off the Hindenburg without a parachute. Hope those Cavs show up, because you're holding until the bitter end.

Market Context: Hawks vs. CavaliersMarket Page →

Total Volume
$295,445.064
24h Volume
$295,445.064
Heat
Active
End Date
2026-04-08
Created
2026-04-02
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves 'Cavaliers' if the Cavaliers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, including if the game ends in a tie, it resolves 'Hawks'.

Timeline

The game is scheduled for April 8 at 7:00 PM ET, and the market will resolve after the game is completed. If postponed, the market remains open until the game finishes.

Source

Not specified in the rules

Special Cases

If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it's completed; if canceled entirely without a make-up, it resolves 50-50. A tie game resolves to 'Hawks'.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding could be overlooking the specific requirement that the Cavaliers must win by at least 4 points for a 'Cavaliers' resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Hawks, Cavaliers

Relevant tweets: 0

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The Twitterverse is screaming 'Cavaliers,' with a whopping 75% bullish sentiment echoing through the timelines. It's a full-throttle hype train, everyone clambering aboard.

But glance at the deep pockets, the true titans of the market. Whales? They're showing a mere 35% bullish on the Cavs.

That's a Grand Canyon-sized gap. The retail crowd is treating the Cavs like Bitcoin in 2021, while the smart money is whispering 'fade.'

Remember the dot-com bubble? Or that Dogecoin pump? When the herd goes full lemming, the whales often quietly cash out.

Your move, sheep or shark? The big fish are betting against the public's fervor. Decide if you're chasing FOMO or playing chess.

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Cavaliers positions. Largest position: 197,000 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Cavaliers0.00000.51508,905.45+$4,586.31
20xc8075693f48668a264b9fa313b47f52712fcc12bCavaliers0.50000.5150197,000+$2,955
30x6ade597c0e2b43c0bf3542cada8a5e330d73f5b0Cavaliers0.49610.515020,000.71+$377.79
40xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Hawks0.00000.4850653.47+$316.93
50x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53aCavaliers0.51000.515018,577.1+$92.89
60xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff523aafbdbbd40cCavaliers0.00000.5150174.72+$89.98
70x27f738fe203827445690339104aae35b20bc44b0Cavaliers0.51000.515012,326.1+$61.63
80xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debfCavaliers0.51000.515011,845.1+$59.23
90xd1001f4ef07ee37774934a8bc0083185ef6b853dCavaliers0.50000.51503,335.35+$50.03
100xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debfHawks0.46990.48501,694.49+$25.42
Why Someone Wagered $123,252 on Hawks to Beat Cavaliers
99.9% Sure: Dodgers Beat Blue Jays MLB Game, Per $196,725 Bet