Trade Report : 

90% Odds Shock: FURIA Wins IEM Rio Map 2 After $126,925 Bet

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-13, data may be outdated
0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1
PolyMarket : Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
$126,925.15
Trade Amount
BUY FURIA
Trade Side
0.9
Entry Price
Time

0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1 placed $126,925.15 BUY FURIA on Polymarket, betting on "Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B" (Map 2 Winner) at odds 0.9 (market gives 90.0% probability). Total market volume $32,284.9, 24h volume $32,181.94, heat level: Moderate.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Map 2 Winner, FURIA at 0.9

FURIA odds at 0.9, market gives 90.0% chance
Map 2 Winner FURIA
96.5%
Map 2 Winner Passion UA
3.5%
Risk/reward ratio 0.1:1
If correct, $126,925.15 becomes $141,028.15 (profit $14,103)
If wrong, loses $126,925

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $126,925 buying FURIA for Map 2, aiming for a cool $14,103 profit. Talk about conviction!

This whale bought at 90.0% implied probability, now sitting pretty at 96.5%. Smart money agrees, with 10/10 top whales on FURIA, all in profit. It’s like watching a herd of elephants all charging in the same direction.

But hold your horses, cowboy. That 0.1:1 risk/reward ratio is tighter than a drum. And this trade is 393.14% of the *entire market volume*. That’s not market dominance; that’s market *monopoly*. Illiquidity so severe, it makes the Sahara look like a swimming pool.

Worst of all? A match cancellation means an automatic $56,000 loss. Seven days left until the hard deadline for this potential catastrophe. This isn't just a bet; it's a high-wire act over a pit of cancellation alligators. Excellent entry, but the structural risks are screaming. Average, at best.

Market Context: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Map 2 WinnerMarket Page →

Total Volume
$32,284.9
24h Volume
$32,181.94
Heat
Moderate
End Date
TBD (To Be Determined)
Created
2026-04-03
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to 'FURIA' if FURIA wins Map 2 against Passion UA, and to 'Passion UA' if Passion UA wins Map 2 against FURIA. It resolves 50-50 if Map 2 is not completed, or if the match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days from its scheduled date without starting.

Timeline

The match was initially scheduled for April 13 at 10:00 AM ET. If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from this scheduled date without starting, the market resolves 50-50.

Source

The primary resolution source is official information from hltv.org. If hltv.org does not publish final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting, including video evidence, will be used.

Special Cases

If the match begins but Map 2 is completed with a winner, the market resolves based on that Map 2 outcome. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, or if the match is canceled or significantly delayed, it resolves 50-50.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be focusing on the overall match winner rather than specifically the winner of Map 2. Also, it's important to note the conditions under which the market resolves 50-50, which include significant delays or non-completion of Map 2.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: FURIA, Passion UA, IEM Rio

Relevant tweets: 18

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

FURIA's CS2 squad is giving off 2023 Evil Geniuses vibes. That's not a compliment; it's a eulogy. Analysts are calling out their "contest all objectives" flaw — playing like a toddler who found the 'W' key, but forgot 'S'. They're "melted," making easy games hard, even in their new Vitality-esque jerseys.

Ignore the LoL noise; that's a red herring for the rubes. The real unpriced intel? FURIA's tactical suicide. Molodoy's headphone swap? A footnote.

Map 2 is prime upset territory. If FURIA's priced as heavy favorites, you fade them harder than a bad tan. Bet Passion UA. The smart money knows when the "home team advantage" is just a fancy way to say "target practice."

KOL — High Relevance (5)

KOL@fpskaze84 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish
Critiques FURIA's strategic flaw of contesting all objectives, which can be detrimental despite good macro and teamfight skills.
@PedroLu92267509 Problema da FURIA é que eles não respeitam, macro deles não é ruim, teamfight não é ruim, mas eles só querem disputar todos objetivos, quando tu joga assim, vai ter vezes que tu só vai perder e e perder e o snowball de merda vem. Eles não givam nada.
25 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0119RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
KOL@currydtxverified69,818 flwQ:4/5opinionbearish
Compares FURIA's current performance to Evil Geniuses' struggles in 2023.
FURIA giving me 2023 EG vibes NGL
43,449 views12 rt1,407 likesER:0.0236RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter
KOL@Abra00639 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
Criticizes FURIA for making easy games difficult and suggests they might lose 2-0.
@luisshowtana tem que dar palmas pra esse time da furia, é incrível como esses kras conseguem reviver time morto, é incrível como conseguem fazer um jogo fácil ser difícil, é capaz de perder 2x0 essa série ainda
1,189 views0 rt26 likesER:2.8889RR:132.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@eslbrasilverified77,999 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
Compares FURIA to Team Vitality, implying a similarity in status or style.
Então tá confirmado que a @FURIA é a @TeamVitality brasileira? 🤔 https://t.co/l6Sw289V3R
4,239 views2 rt213 likesER:0.0032RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@fluxoggCS10,871 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
FURIA has a special edition uniform for IEM Rio.
E toma uniforme edição especial para a IEM RIO da Furia https://t.co/h1YZkqD8dy
578 views0 rt16 likesER:0.0015RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@paiNGamingBR655,771 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
paiN Gaming announced a match against FURIA at 6 PM in CBLOL.
pega a visão q hj tem paiN em dobro! vs. FURIA às 18h no #CBLOL vs. g3x às 20h na #KingsLeague #GOpaiN https://t.co/tnnJNiEfMy
72,060 views8 rt859 likesER:0.0016RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@mylonzeteverified372,954 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
paiN Gaming defeated FURIA, taking a 1-0 lead in the series.
O IMPOSSÍVEL ACONTECEU MEU DEUS DO CÉU A paiN venceu da Fúria É 1X0 NA SÉRIE 🔥
1,704 views1 rt163 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (4)

RETAIL@VaiQueCola_FPS134 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Molodoy (FURIA) was observed using different headphones than officially listed during IEM Rio 2026 VOD.
Molodoy (FURIA) e o mistério do fone de ouvido Sites oficiais (https://t.co/ngedJvSred, https://t.co/ubycc0SFl6 - atualizado hoje) dizem: Shure SE215 Black. Mas no VOD de hoje (IEM Rio 2026), ele está claramente de Bose QuietComfort 20 (Q20). @tvoy_molodoy @FURIA @FalleNCS https://t.co/QpVJHMjOop
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Renerzito127 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish
Expresses a belief that FURIA is performing poorly and will not win without exceptional individual performance.
Essa FURIA tá derretida Se o Tatu não fizer chover, eles não vencem
2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@darkeater______65 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish
Predicts FURIA will win the series 2-1 with a comeback.
independente do 2x1 de virada da Furia que provavelmente vai acontecer esse meme eh mt bom
2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@VaiQueCola_FPS134 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@tvoy_molodoy @FURIA @FalleNCS @polexoficial @yuurih
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (7)

RETAIL@faladoryverified3,839 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
paiN Gaming defeated FURIA in a CBLOL match.
A paiN vence a primeira partida no split em cima da FURIA que estava dominante no campeonato!! ISSO É #CBLOL
2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@mugiblade50 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Expresses disappointment in FURIA's loss to paiN in a LoL match.
@Chara_Coelho a furia conseguiu perder pra pain com o kuri fazendo wintrade vsffffff, esse q é o time q todo mundo fala q é o melhor do campeonato?
6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@FenixSoni33 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
Suggests a loss would be embarrassing for FURIA in their match against paiN.
@paiNGamingBR Se essa furia perder vai ficar muito feio pra eles kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
18 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@alce_552 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@FURIA https://t.co/rFb3t0XqEA
602 views0 rt18 likesER:0.0326RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AndreMR37 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral
@FURIA ficou legal, homenagem a vitality né 😂
1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Arthurlopes00033 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@FURIA chama a furia
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@sotweetruim441 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@LOUDSportsClub chama furia kk
7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold FURIA positions. Largest position: 140,604.87 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1FURIA0.90000.9245140,604.87+$3,444.82
20xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0FURIA0.00000.9245543.23+$502.21
30x802bb3fe9b50e38ca89c87b7a485ed8e2e317d57FURIA0.82990.92453,150.12+$297.69
40xc19e59d4e5aee11f421810121e6d488b5c5ec764FURIA0.83250.92452,969.58+$273.05
50x8f939ac96a56f1a02dfc54fbf734082881aabffaFURIA0.83340.92452,885.79+$262.75
60x5f4d9a18bc0a4f7328c3919ef5f1ae9679dc0d5eFURIA0.82990.92452,397.35+$226.55
70xdd882a70680633a75516f6ed5fce443e2d96dadbFURIA0.83680.92452,356.77+$206.61
80xfdc0bd67fbd71aa8edd00121eb2a7fcbddc34b85FURIA0.90000.92453,994+$97.85
90x9942f95d0425ba6637539e45068ff109eb865c84FURIA0.84870.92451,172.84+$88.82
100x03f4bd4bd14e0dffa6f012d023387e1a327f7e44FURIA0.79990.9245622+$77.44
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