Trade Report :

US Will Confirm Aliens Exist: $76,820 Bet on Polymarket

bobe2 (0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5)

PolyMarket : Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

$76,819.75

Trade Amount

SELL No

Trade Side

0.81

Entry Price

2026-04-18 13:00:54 ET

Time

bobe2 placed $76,819.75 SELL No on Polymarket, betting on "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?" (December 31) at odds 0.81 (market gives 81.0% probability). Total market volume $23,710,425.856, 24h volume $419,878.856, heat level: Active.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: December 31, No at 0.81

No odds at 0.81, market gives 81.0% chance

December 31 No

81.5%

December 31 Yes

18.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0.2:1
If correct, $76,819.75 becomes $94,838.75 (profit $18,019)
If wrong, loses $76,820

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $76,820 betting the US *won't* confirm alien existence by December 31. Talk about a contrarian take.

With 257 days until resolution, they're risking $76,820 for a potential $18,019 profit. While 9 of 10 top whales are screaming "Yes," this trader is playing Sun Tzu, not follow-the-leader.

This isn't just a large swing, accounting for 18.3% of 24-hour volume; it's a surgical strike. The pros are calling it: a good trade. Capitalizing on retail inefficiency, semantic loopholes, and time decay, this move is as precise as a Swiss watch.

Take a bow, you magnificent market assassin.

Market Context: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? December 31Market Page →

Total Volume

$23,710,425.856

24h Volume

$419,878.856

Heat

Active

End Date

2026-12-31

Created

2025-11-25

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "Yes" if the President, a Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No".

Timeline

The crucial deadline for the statement to occur is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on whether the condition was met.

Source

The primary source for resolution will be official information from the United States government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be what precisely qualifies as a "definitively states" declaration, requiring a clear and unambiguous statement from an authorized entity.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US aliens, Aliens confirmed, UFO disclosure

Relevant tweets: 28

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The $25M alien confirmation market? A paltry 18%. Don't mistake that for calm.

Congressman Burchett's yelling "aliens are 100% here!" — even from "underwater bases." Billionaire Bigelow seconds it.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon's 46 UFO video deadline vanished like a Martian's water supply. April 2026 is the whisper, a rumored disclosure date for those missing tapes.

But here's the cosmic catch: "aliens" vs. "NHI" is a semantic minefield. The government could confirm "Non-Human Intelligence" and still resolve "No" on a technicality.

And if they *do* confirm? A vocal retail faction will scream "false flag!"

Your play: Buy "Yes" before congressional UAP hearings turn into a circus. Dump it before the White House actually speaks. Remember, Congress bloviates. The Executive resolves. Don't confuse a Senator's hot mic with a Presidential decree.

KOL — High Relevance (8)

KOL@uBF2fV1cVQxRjQo23,758 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Congressman Tim Burchett stated that military officials reported to him that aliens may have underwater bases.

Congressman Tim Burchett stated that military officials reported to him that aliens may have underwater bases. There are many different species of intelligent life. Humans, who require oxygen like us, are limited to societies on the surface of the Earth. https://t.co/K8TS0LuRKT

7,242 views24 rt135 likesER:0.0259RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@overclassifiedxverified2,017 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Congressman Tim Burchett stated, after being briefed by nearly every alphabet agency, that "aliens have been here 100%" and "we are not alone."

🚨 BURCHETT GOES NUCLEAR: "ALIENS HAVE BEEN HERE 100%. WE ARE NOT ALONE" AFTER SHOCK BRIEFINGS THAT WOULD UNGLUE AMERICA 👽🛸💥 Rep. Tim Burchett briefed by nearly every alphabet agency, dropped the hammer: "Aliens have been here 100%. We are not alone." He warns the classified files he's seen would keep you up at night and if released, "this country would've come unglued", one recent briefing (...

58,953 views240 rt1,283 likesER:3.0159RR:29.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@InterstellarUAPverified85,417 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Billionaire Robert Bigelow, CEO of Bigelow Aerospace and NASA partner, stated he is "absolutely convinced" that "aliens walk among us."

Billionaire Robert Bigelow: "Aliens walk among us" 👽🛸 "I'm absolutely convinced. That's all there is to it." The billionaire space CEO behind Bigelow Aerospace and NASA partner just admitted on 60 Minutes there's an ET presence right here on Earth. "There has been and is an existing presence, an ET presence. You don't have to go anywhere. It's right under our noses." Should Robert Bigelow be...

20,965 views124 rt556 likesER:0.0355RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@deluxe_pepeverified93,260 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

A UFO cluster, described as a silent triangle of glowing lights, was spotted and captured by witnesses near an Ohio base on April 8.

UFO cluster spotted over mysterious base tied to missing Air Force scientist Witnesses near the Ohio base captured the craft on April 8, showing a silent triangle of glowing lights moving in perfect formation before splitting apart mid-flight. The lights appeared to drift slowly downward, flickering, pulsing and changing brightness individually as they hovered in the night sky. https://t.co/otB...

4,544 views26 rt108 likesER:0.0067RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WillCainShowverified64,101 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Will Cain questions why the Pentagon reportedly missed its deadline to release 46 UFO videos.

ARE THERE ALIENS AMONG US?👽 @willcain questions why the Pentagon reportedly missed its deadline to release 46 UFO videos. https://t.co/jml5VfV1Ue

3,921 views20 rt96 likesER:0.0077RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PaulGoldEagleverified166,163 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author claims that "they" (presumably the government) are terrified by what's on "46 tapes," mentioning Karoline Leavitt as White House Press Secretary on April 18, 2026.

🌎😇QUANTUM HEALING - ACTIVATED!🌎👽🌎😇👽💪💥⚡🕑💜🎊🌿🖖🌎😇👽💪💥⚡🕑💜🎊🌿🖖🌎😇👽💪💥⚡🕑💜🎊🌿🖖🌎😇👽💪💥⚡🕑💜🎊🌿🖖🌎😇👽💪 ◾️Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, April 18, 2026. ◾ THEY ARE TERRIFIED BY WHAT'S ON THESE 46 TAPES. ◾️The Pentagon has just not obeyed a direct order from Congress. Missed the April 14 deadline. It refused to publish the 46 classified videos of the UAP (Un...

621 views6 rt20 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@robertgrahamverified68,047 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author speculates that if the government reveals aliens among us, they would still redact names like Trump's to control the information.

Sure, they reveal some of the aliens among us, but I bet they still redact Trump's name to avoid revealing too much.

1,878 views0 rt4 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@UAPWixyverified17,663 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author claims that a fleet of UFOs will appear over Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio on April 8, 2026.

🚨8th April, 2026 this fleet of UFOs appear over Wrught Patterson Airforce Base, Ohio, USA🇺🇸.. https://t.co/YjBny6xMNM

39,772 views115 rt975 likesER:0.1854RR:2.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@JewelsJonesLiveverified88,370 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The author opines that aliens likely don't visit humanity because they view human events as "intergalactic comedy."

This is why aliens don’t visit us. They’re probably watching this unfold like it’s intergalactic comedy hour.

1,196 views14 rt56 likesER:0.0038RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@YourAnonOneverified1,713,929 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The author poses a question about who should speak for humanity if aliens visit.

If aliens visit us, who should be in charge of speaking on behalf of humanity? https://t.co/O6QRyMkMv4

47,785 views39 rt334 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (3)

RETAIL@thesentinelnetverified9,181 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

$25,000,000 is currently being bet on whether the US government will confirm aliens before 2027, with current odds at 18%.

🚨$25,000,000 is currently betting on whether the US government will "confirm aliens" before 2027. Current odds: 18%. The bet is not whether aliens exist. The bet is whether Washington will say they do. We pulled on that thread. https://t.co/uvnS2E2A4s

1,008 views4 rt16 likesER:0.0105RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@habiburverified280 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The author observes a shift in the alien narrative, from general speculation about life on other planets to claims of the US government being in contact with aliens.

This Alien story is interesting. First it was : There's no God. There are billions and billions of planets where life has evolved. Then : The US government is in contact with Aliens. But details on it will cause world religions to collapse and rewrote. Therefore being kept secret. Now : Well there's no extra terrestrial aliens that we know of. What we call Aliens had been living here on earth s...

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JmesLisa65488verified6,491 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author warns that if the US government starts talking about aliens, it should be seen as a distraction, equating it to "the devil."

@Hitchslap1 I’ll be back soon . Gonna listen to @TuckerCarlson . When the US government start talking about aliens, don’t be distracted wondering about aliens, 👽 it’s just the devil https://t.co/DWxqqskooe

13 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@fratersolisverified4,201 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author reports the sighting of an amazing tube-shaped craft, seemingly accompanied by other craft, in high-quality footage.

Amazing tube-shaped craft spotted once again. High quality footage, seems to be accompanied by other craft.

120 views1 rt4 likesER:0.0057RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JonnyAimless1,448 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author suggests that any government statements about aliens would be a fabricated cover-up to avoid revealing a darker truth about "sick depraved aliens among us."

@mandyarthur A lot safer to just make up some Alien Crap than release the Truth about the Sick Depraved Aliens among us🤣 https://t.co/ePmJBqyxkU

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ryan_UFOs563 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The author asserts that there are many types of UAPs (tic tacs, discs, cigars) that maneuver in ways beyond human capability.

@EoDolphine @admpubmx @ReneFranco @yohanandiaz @CNNEE @Adela_Micha @Claudiashein @El_Universal_Mx @Sergeluna_S Plenty of tic tacs, discs, cigars and other weird objects maneuvering in ways we can’t.

10 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DennisKoch108,769 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

The tweet promotes a collection of recent UFO-related news headlines.

UFO? UAP? WTF? UFO Headlines | 04.17.26 Catch up on the latest UFO-related stories that have made headlines recently. https://t.co/6m3l3DC4DE https://t.co/G6Cjrf8BE5

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@UAPLuigiverified3,638 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author implies that certain information or sightings have never been seen by the public or Congress.

@7800Quin Never before seen to the public 👀 or Congress

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@XHabibverified25,371 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author states their belief that aliens are among us.

The aliens are among us https://t.co/FTuK7wx3uF

874 views0 rt30 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JoannaAccordiverified1,128 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author claims to be in a very electromagnetic relationship with an alien and communicates with it.

@Zigmanfreud Aliens are among us. I am in a very electromagnetic relationship with one....we communicate on many wave lengths, perfectly entangled and relatively close to one another. Theoretically

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@abstractperu88819 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author believes aliens have visited us and that we might be aliens ourselves, or that aliens/god are our origin.

They visited us we are aliens , aliens or god is the be/are of us

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@jhayflanaganverified12,742 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author believes the entities in a linked image/video look like aliens and questions assumptions about alien size.

@xShadowFace Agreed The size gets me tho We always assume same size as us, just off of our human perception But if you ask me these look like aliens IMO 😂😂 https://t.co/tJ8sTudmuM

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@sasha_monet4116,887 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author advises preparing for potential alien presence by buying ammo and ray guns.

Turn off the News Go Outside Resume your MAHA routine Get in shape, no telling what will come at us next. Buy ammo and ray guns Aliens may be floating around too!! https://t.co/CAWTNngKr8

5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 9 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 894,254.45 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd	Yes	0.1789	0.1850	3,689.09	+$21,480.75
2	0xefb92699291627fbc395550648815b1241c3e74f	Yes	0.1509	0.1850	0	+$17,594.54
3	0x4afd56809da87ea2cf9678bc27b1b887381a4d18	No	0.5000	0.8149	0	+$16,433.64
4	0xaf23273e03a924a257edd6beae7133cf9d32377f	Yes	0.1677	0.1850	894,254.45	+$15,439.3
5	0x073a1caba3c22e9e361ceae83aaa5405706f91e7	Yes	0.1220	0.1850	250,000	+$15,103.33
6	0x78048aa26ac1967566b8ed11910b529e5f2d7025	Yes	0.1401	0.1850	5,453	+$12,424.95
7	0x5ecde7348ea5100af4360dd7a6e0a3fb1d420787	Yes	0.2136	0.1850	0.01	+$11,288.6
8	0xcd09c7f5132a160b41578a79a9e3453da7aeda63	Yes	0.1695	0.1850	548,723.93	+$8,487.66
9	0xbdcb293dd41148a20895d0e818c0d96c0756e811	Yes	0.1799	0.1850	0	+$8,249.98
10	0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344	Yes	0.1699	0.1850	0	+$5,999.92