US x Iran Peace Deal by April 30? $345K Polymarket Bet Says YES
ScottyNooo placed $345,413.66 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" (April 30) at odds 0.63 (market gives 63.0% probability). Total market volume $2,443,805.231, 24h volume $711,084.557, heat level: Hot.
Odds Analysis: April 30, Yes at 0.63
If correct, $345,413.66 becomes $548,275.66 (profit $202,862)
If wrong, loses $345,414
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $345,414 betting on a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026. For a measly $202,862 profit if they win. That's a 0.6:1 risk/reward, folks.
With only 13 days left until the deadline, this isn't a trade; it's a financial kamikaze mission. The resolution rules are crystal clear: no temporary ceasefire counts.
Meanwhile, the Top 10 whales, the real pros, are all 'Yes' but they bought in at significantly lower prices. They're already profitable. This whale is providing their exit liquidity.
Effectively, this isn't a bet on peace; it's a generous donation to those who actually know how to trade. Like buying Blockbuster stock in 2010. Pure negative expected value. Ouch.
Market Context: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? April 30Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A permanent peace deal means a written agreement or clear public confirmation from both governments that military hostilities have definitively and permanently ended. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No".
The qualifying agreement must be established by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, for the market to resolve "Yes". Resolution will occur shortly after this deadline based on whether such an agreement was reached.
The outcome will primarily be determined by official information from the governments of the United States and Iran. If official sources are unclear, a consensus of credible news reporting may also be used.
Not specified in the rules.
It is easy to misinterpret temporary ceasefires, ongoing negotiations, or unilateral statements as a qualifying permanent peace deal. Both governments must explicitly confirm or sign a lasting agreement to end hostilities, not just make progress or temporary arrangements.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran peace deal, US Iran peace, US Iran deal
Relevant tweets: 38
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
"US x Iran permanent peace by April 30"? The market's guzzling Trump's "very close" Kool-Aid at 63% YES.
Meanwhile, Gulf/Euro leaders whisper "six months." That's not a deal, folks, that's a *Netflix binge*.
Retail's chasing headlines like pigeons after breadcrumbs. They're mistaking a ceasefire *extension* for a "permanent peace deal." That's like calling a first date a marriage.
War Secretary Hegseth's "locked and loaded" threats? Not exactly the soundtrack to a peace treaty.
And the "2026" year trap? A calendar conspiracy waiting to happen.
A complex nuclear treaty isn't a Tinder swipe. It takes longer than baking a soufflé.
The smart money sees the Potemkin village of peace. Bet NO. Avoid the definition trap.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (2)
Retail — High Relevance (10)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 592,954.65 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73 | Yes | 0.3607 | 0.6250 | 108,583.78 | +$32,789.98 |
| 2 | 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b | Yes | 0.2457 | 0.6250 | 43,082.52 | +$16,338.36 |
| 3 | 0x510904c9a58f5c5ad799a1b44947077564175e9c | Yes | 0.3506 | 0.6250 | 11,277.54 | +$12,814.03 |
| 4 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | Yes | 0.6175 | 0.6250 | 592,954.65 | +$10,955.39 |
| 5 | 0x00425c692a667981118f679ef68fdc775257321e | Yes | 0.3626 | 0.6250 | 38,732.87 | +$10,160.37 |
| 6 | 0xd46be610a32e5c6ee094977e3caf9ab89c525dab | Yes | 0.3981 | 0.6250 | 37,363.94 | +$9,240.37 |
| 7 | 0xabb41382fc6f0b50f31bf2d09077aa5394317b57 | Yes | 0.3605 | 0.6250 | 31,993.64 | +$8,459.41 |
| 8 | 0x9b6fce29d890c77230ad4fdc2b85eae29d250e5f | Yes | 0.3998 | 0.6250 | 35,387.41 | +$8,341.16 |
| 9 | 0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b | Yes | 0.2200 | 0.6250 | 17,388.93 | +$7,042.52 |
| 10 | 0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20 | Yes | 0.2137 | 0.6250 | 10,000.01 | +$6,389.94 |