Trade Report :

US-Iran Peace Deal Fails by April 22: $84,512 on Polymarket

sameday1 (0xe36f5735f5bc12c36b361a599e8603d56f7ccd91)

PolyMarket : US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

$84,511.94

Trade Amount

BUY No

Trade Side

0.8397

Entry Price

2026-04-19 02:46:06 ET

Time

sameday1 placed $84,511.94 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" (April 22) at odds 0.8397 (market gives 84.0% probability). Total market volume $10,622,196.529, 24h volume $1,294,698.732, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: April 22, No at 0.8397

No odds at 0.8397, market gives 84.0% chance

April 22 No

82.5%

April 22 Yes

17.5%

Risk/reward ratio 0.2:1
If correct, $84,511.94 becomes $100,644.94 (profit $16,133)
If wrong, loses $84,512

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $84,512 betting the US and Iran *won't* be holding hands by April 22. With only 3 days left, they're risking everything for a $16,133 payday.

The market already screams "No" at 84.0%, but this isn't some Hail Mary. This whale's playing chess, not checkers. They know the resolution rules are tighter than a politician's alibi, explicitly excluding any $20 billion uranium swap pipe dreams.

While seven "Yes" whales are bleeding unrealized losses, this "No" position, despite its 0.2:1 risk/reward, is pure, cold arbitrage. It's harvesting retail hope over a compressed 72-hour window. Genius, if a little boring.

Market Context: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? April 22Market Page →

Total Volume

$10,622,196.529

24h Volume

$1,294,698.732

Heat

Hot

End Date

2026-04-22

Created

2026-04-08

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, which means military hostilities definitively end. Otherwise, it resolves to "No" if no such lasting agreement is reached or publicly confirmed by that date.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by whether a qualifying peace deal is established by April 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Source

The primary sources for resolution will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, with a consensus of credible reporting also being used if needed.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

It is easy to misunderstand that only a definitive, lasting agreement to end military hostilities counts, not temporary ceasefires or ongoing negotiations.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran peace, US Iran deal, Iran diplomacy

Relevant tweets: 38

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Whales are splashing cash on a US-Iran peace deal by April 22, but are they just riding Trump's hype train straight into a mirage?

Axios whispers of a $20 billion cash-for-uranium swap. A temporary ceasefire. Trump, ever the showman, declared victory.

But Iran's Parliament Speaker says, "Nah, fam. Far off." The Strait of Hormuz is doing a Schrödinger's cat act – simultaneously open and closed, depending on who you ask.

Satellite images show Iran rebuilding missile bases, not peace gardens. Trump missed his own deadline, then reverted to "dropping bombs" threats faster than a meme dies.

Remember, "permanent" means *permanent*, not a transactional fling. This isn't a wedding, it's a hostage negotiation with extra steps.

The "YES" shares are priced for a fairy tale. Smart money buys "NO" on these jawboning-induced spikes. Don't be a mark.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@ShaykhSulaiman839,973 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The US and Iran are negotiating a 3-page peace plan, which includes the US releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds and Iran giving up its enriched uranium.

BREAKING: U.S & IRAN ARE NEGOTIATING A 3 PAGE PEACE PLAN ACCORDING TO AXIOS ✅ 3 page peace plan ✅ US to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds ✅ Iran gives up it’s enriched uranium ✅ Some enriched uranium will be sent to third country, rest will be blended down in Iran under IAEA inspection. ✅ Iran will be allowed nuclear reactors ✅ The nuclear reactors will be used for medical isotopes ✅...

306,854 views478 rt3,656 likesER:0.0157RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@businessverified9,993,660 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for the remainder of a ceasefire, seen as a breakthrough towards lasting peace with the US and Israel.

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for the remainder of a ceasefire, in what’s seen as a breakthrough toward a potentially lasting peace in the war with the US and Israel. https://t.co/PPJh8ZmmLN

12,175 views16 rt69 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@KobeissiLetterverified1,715,777 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The US is reportedly considering a "$20 billion cash-for-uranium deal" with Iran as part of a new "3-page peace plan," according to Axios.

BREAKING: The US is considering a "$20 billion cash-for-uranium deal" with Iran as part of a new "3 page peace plan," per Axios. Details include: 1. The US and Iran are negotiating over a 3-page plan to end the war 2. One element under discussion is that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium 3. Some of Iran's hig...

1,952,432 views1,346 rt8,863 likesER:0.0209RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@CryptosR_Usverified301,575 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Trump thanked Iran as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is in effect, and a peace deal is potentially days away.

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP THANKS IRAN AS STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENS Oil drops below $100 after spiking to $130. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire now in effect. Peace deal potentially days away. Markets rallying. Risk-on is back. https://t.co/GPvPmz6r8D

10,761 views31 rt156 likesER:0.0026RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DinoLeadingNewsverified82,347 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The US and Iran have reached a ceasefire deal for Lebanon through Pakistan's mediation, halting hostilities.

🚨 BREAKING: US & Iran reach ceasefire deal for Lebanon via Pakistan mediation. Hostilities halt, boosting economic outlook: Bank of Israel likely to raise 2026 growth forecast, eyes 5.5% recovery by 2027.…

64 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ThePulseHubverified7 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran states it remains "far" from a peace deal with the US, with tensions escalating over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran says it remains "far" from a peace deal with the US as tensions escalate over the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Google News #IranUS #PulseHub

36 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:5.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlexKing8417631 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran restricted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to a US naval blockade, undermining peace deal expectations.

Iran moved to restrict vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the continued US naval blockade, undermining expectations of an imminent peace deal touted by President Donald Trump https://t.co/p3VrWHcrKS

53 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:53.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@businessverified9,993,660 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran stated it would open the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, raising hopes for a deal with the US.

Iran said it would open the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, raising hopes of a deal to end hostilities with the US. Here’s what to know about the hurdles to a lasting peace. https://t.co/2WcjPtrvwJ

14,556 views16 rt103 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AFpostverified504,562 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump announced that Iran will forfeit enriched uranium and he will prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon as conditions for a peace plan.

Trump announces that Iran will forfeit their enriched uranium and he will prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon. This condition of a peace plan would effectively bring to a close any risk of US troop deployments and further escalation. Follow: @AFpost https://t.co/j6CbdZTSJb

19,646 views24 rt355 likesER:0.0017RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@businessverified9,993,660 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Peace talks between the US and Iran have floundered, leading world leaders to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"The international order is crumbling into disarray," says Chinese leader Xi Jinping. After peace talks between the US and Iran floundered, world leaders are rushing to meet with Xi, signaling growing expectations for China to be a credible force for peace https://t.co/oisw6PDTLh

81,027 views193 rt602 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (3)

KOL@Iranverified329,157 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish

Iran's Deputy of Communications for the President Office stated that Iran made conditional passage through the Strait of Hormuz possible to demonstrate good faith and peace-seeking intentions.

Deputy of Communications for President Office says that Iran, to prove its good faith & peace-seeking intentions, made conditional passage through Strait of Hormuz possible; However, by abusing this act for propaganda purposes, the US has caused the Strait to be blocked again.

8,785 views3 rt19 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranIntl_Enverified373,563 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Donald Trump criticized Iran's human rights record, citing the killing of protesters and imminent executions, in response to a call for peace.

Donald Trump on Thursday fired back at Pope Leo's call for peace, as the US President cited Iran's killing of at least 42,000 unarmed protesters and the imminent execution of four more — including the first woman protester — to challenge the pontiff's message. Trump's remarks followed the Pope's Thursday address, saying the "masters of war" were spending billions on destruction while turning a bl...

4,128 views14 rt57 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ani_digitalverified790,722 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Trump states the "complicit world" must end policies obstructing peace.

Trump, "complicit world" must end policies obstructing peace: Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandeb Strait Read @ANI Story | https://t.co/TOSD3JXp2m #Trump #ComplicitWorld #Houthis #BabalMandabStrait #Iran #US #Yemen https://t.co/0GeyjlTrOs

81 views1 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (8)

RETAIL@shauryaverseverified36 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The ceasefire has collapsed, Iran is attacking neutral ships, and Trump is threatening to "start dropping bombs again."

💣 Bombs Over Diplomacy: With the ceasefire collapsing and Iran attacking neutral ships, Trump has reversed his tone, threatening to "start dropping bombs again." The Russian warning that the peace talks were just a smokescreen for a US ground invasion is looking highly accurate.

24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@y0news_ai12 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US peace talks, disrupting global oil trade.

🔴🔥 Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Amid US Peace Talks Stall 💡 Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts ~21% of global oil trade, creating immediate energy market … #iran #geopolitics https://t.co/Gl10VEZify

49 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:4.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MetatronIncverified21,989 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz amid a deadlock in US peace talks.

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US peace talks deadlock https://t.co/1S4HJ4PnXB

47 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FarooqmoinMoin285 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Pakistan's Field Marshal General Asim has emerged as a central peace mediator in the US-Iran conflict.

Pakistan's Field Marshal General Asim emerges as central peace mediator in US-Iran conflict https://t.co/YP4DhpDDbP

10 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0035RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@OtherImranKhanverified2,538 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

A podcast discusses whether Pakistan deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for its extraordinary peace mediation between the US and Iran.

Does Pakistan Deserve the Nobel Peace Prize for the extraordinary peace mediation between US & Iran? We discuss the issue in our podcast Geopolitical GupShup. @khansheharyar @NDF_Pak Whether CDF Asim Munir, PM Sharif and FM Ishaq Dar should share it or Nobel Prize should be dedicated to the people of Pakistan? You will find a robust debate in our podcast. Check it out: https://t.co/lRLQNV6I...

150 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@StocksStarverified4,390 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The author believes Trump's claims of peace were "fantasy claims" intended to jawbone markets, not genuine progress towards a deal.

The real game here wasn’t “peace” or “permanent surrender"; it was Trump trying to jawbone markets. He kept throwing out fantasy claims—Iran agreed to never close Hormuz, mines removed, and the “transaction” almost done – to drag US equities and crude back towards pre‑war levels on pure hope. Anyone who actually knows Iran and Trump knew this script was fake. Tehran had never signed a real, veri...

44 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Xxmanxx40D872 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia met in Turkey to discuss a peace push for Iran.

Iran mediators meet in #Turkey to discuss peace push The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia met Friday on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum to discuss the efforts to reach a deal to end the war between the US and Iran https://t.co/0hGPFTsJgT

41 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0011RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@jalle51verified854 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The US and Iran had their first real face-to-face meeting, indicating a long road to peace with both hope and despair.

America & Iran: Long Road to Peace (or at Least a Pause in the Bargaining) The headline promises great hope and great despair at the same time. Last weekend it finally happened: First real face-to-face meeting in a decade. No ordinary diplomats – no, real bosses: US Vice President JD Vance vs. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (a Revolutionary Guard with muscles). They stayed up ...

6 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (4)

RETAIL@plaz28verified926 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Satellite images reportedly show Iran rebuilding its underground missile bases during the ceasefire.

👁️The US spent 7 weeks bombing Iran’s missile program. Iran spent the ceasefire digging it back out. Satellite images show excavators and bulldozers at underground missile bases right now — during the “peace.” Intelligence: 60% of launchers recovered. 70% of missile stockpile intact. They called it a ceasefire. Iran called it a restock. Source: NYT / WSJ / CNN .

17 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@itsmezarnabb7,285 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

Pakistan is positioning itself as a vital bridge for strategic diplomacy between the US and Iran.

Pakistan is reinforcing its role as a pillar of stability. By balancing firm counterterrorism resolve with strategic diplomacy between powers like the US & Iran, he is positioning as a vital bridge for peace. #ThankYouPakPMandCDF #CDFGlobalPeaceMaker https://t.co/roLgwtEpGW

10 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@leonlahoudverified128 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The author states that they suffered more from Iran and the old Assad Syrian regime.

@MariamKesserwan 100%. they want to tell us that israelis are demons so that they can attack civilians as well as soldiers. meanwhile we suffered more from Iran and the old assad Syrian regime than from Israel. Let's sign peace. and the first step is to change that law

14 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@themumbailocal72 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Pakistan has deployed thousands of Pakistani Shia Militia (Zainabiyoun) to join ranks with IRGC.

Asim Munir has deployed 1000s of Pakistani Shia Militia (Zainabiyoun) to join ranks with IRGC and at the same time deployed its forces in Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, while playing a mediator for peace between the US & Iran. Surely, SURELY @potus is not that dumb 😳

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 7 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 322,114.17 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	Yes	0.3230	0.1750	3,300.87	+$35,253.66
2	0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b	Yes	0.1822	0.1750	55,615.02	+$22,777.96
3	0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df	Yes	0.1006	0.1750	147,997.38	+$20,844.78
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	Yes	0.2948	0.1750	322,114.17	+$16,771.3
5	0xf39651f0addaad0221806d828197064b97feed0d	No	0.7121	0.8250	114,565.94	+$12,933.69
6	0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177	No	0.6387	0.8250	89,535.47	+$12,015.4
7	0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7	Yes	0.2576	0.1750	56,721.96	+$10,706.16
8	0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e	No	0.7148	0.8250	90,127.81	+$10,144.4
9	0xa0c37cb0587b0dd1542f794bcfa345762bba5b9a	Yes	0.1650	0.1750	400	+$9,193.24
10	0x2fe727db6aaa00b13cbb6741f07044317b8142c1	Yes	0.1800	0.1750	51.57	+$8,466.83