Trade Report :

99% Sure: US Forces Won't Enter Iran, Per $619,748 Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

SecondWindCapital (0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$619,748.27

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-08 16:36:49 ET

Time

SecondWindCapital placed $619,748.27 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $258,399,936.815, 24h volume $106,373,589.013, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $619,748.27 becomes $620,990.27 (profit $1,242)
If wrong, loses $619,748

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $619,748 to make $1,242 on 'US forces enter Iran.' This isn't a bet on peace; it's buying 'Yes' at 99.8 cents, hoping to squeeze a measly 0.2%. Risking your entire house for pocket change. This whale thinks they're picking up pennies, but it's in front of a **literal geopolitical steamroller.**

The *real* smart money? Already cashed out. Early whales banked $290k, $234k profits, dumping their 'Yes' shares at 99 cents to dodge resolution risk. Our friend here is holding the bag.

They're exposed to the ultimate semantic trap: does "violating airspace" count as "physically enter"? Oracle disputes on "boots on the ground" versus "airborne presence" are a $619,748 headache. This isn't yield farming; it's a **yield-failing** gambit. A monument to tail risk ignorance. Pack it up, chief. You just bet a fortune on a dictionary definition.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$258,399,936.815

24h Volume

$106,373,589.013

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding entries by intelligence operatives, contractors, or for diplomatic reasons, and non-deliberate entries.

Timeline

The key timeline is the deadline for the event to occur, which is "by the listed date (ET)". Specific resolution dates or effective times beyond this event deadline are not detailed.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of information from credible news and reporting sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might misunderstand that only entry into Iran's land territory counts, not sea or air, and that the entry must be deliberate for operational reasons, excluding diplomatic visits or accidental entries.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US military Iran

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The White House is popping champagne for a "ceasefire victory," but this truce is flimsier than a politician's promise. Iran already calls it violated.

Reports confirm US airstrikes on Tehran and tankers flying towards Iran. The Strait of Hormuz? Shut tighter than a drum.

Trump's "regime change" claims are pure fantasy. JD Vance is flying to Pakistan for "peace talks" in days, but this "ceasefire" is an unwritten, unholy mess.

The broader market bought the rumor. Now, fade the news.

Check your market's fine print: does "entering" mean airstrikes or boots on the ground? If air counts, "Yes" is already a winner. If not, the Strait closure screams future naval action.

Betting "No" on this "peace" is like trusting Icarus with sunscreen. Don't get caught in this mirage.

KOL — High Relevance (7)

KOL@NewsWire_USverified147,014 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to Iranian state media.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Iranian state media reports.

456,352 views760 rt8,844 likesER:0.1635RR:3.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirSona07verified57,023 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Confirmed US airstrikes are taking place against Tehran, Iran.

BREAKING: CONFIRMED US airstrikes taking place against Tehran, Iran.

552 views1 rt15 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SpencerHakimianverified225,053 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to the US and Israel.

🚨IRAN: HORMUZ IS CLOSED TO THE US AND TO ISRAEL

88,531 views505 rt3,844 likesER:0.0620RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Polymarketverified1,355,229 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

A squadron of US tankers has taken off from Israel, heading toward Iran.

JUST IN: Squadron of US tankers have taken off from Israel, heading toward Iran.

469,144 views541 rt4,615 likesER:0.0114RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@World_Affairs11verified231,834 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The US demands Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

BREAKING: The US demands Iran to reopen strait of Hormuz immediately. https://t.co/hp4CdTJE7p

4,442 views37 rt270 likesER:0.0044RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GlobeEyeNewsverified886,769 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

The US demands Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately.

BREAKING: US demands Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately. https://t.co/pVTbzyHcQy

243,072 views494 rt5,562 likesER:0.0174RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FaytuksNetworkverified142,151 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

A US official stated that an attack on the Lavan oil refinery in Iran earlier today was not conducted by the US or Israel.

BREAKING: A US official says an attack on Lavan oil refinery in Iran earlier today was not conducted by the US or Israel - AXIOS

196,749 views206 rt1,580 likesER:0.0401RR:1.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@unusual_whalesverified3,555,757 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran states that the ceasefire terms require the US to choose between a ceasefire or continued war via Israel, and that the world sees massacres in Lebanon.

Iran: "The Iran–US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose, ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments"

85,043 views140 rt1,229 likesER:0.0011RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@nicksortorverified1,506,666 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

VP JD Vance is returning to the US from Hungary and is scheduled to fly back overseas in days to lead peace talks with Iran in Pakistan.

🚨 NOW: VP JD Vance is boarding Air Force Two in Hungary en route back to the United States Vance is scheduled to fly BACK overseas in just days to lead the US delegation for peace talks with IRAN in Pakistan JD's the man for the job. Have a safe flight, Mr. Vice President. https://t.co/bwt9uNvKzM

71,477 views448 rt4,322 likesER:0.0088RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@unusual_whalesverified3,555,757 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The White House states that the Iran ceasefire is a victory for the US.

White House: Iran ceasefire is a victory for the US.

82,973 views30 rt738 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@JavierBlasverified373,823 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

President Trump faces inflation headaches beyond gasoline and oil due to the US-Iran war, with the meat market also showing no respite.

President Trump's other inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn't giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October's peak. https://t.co/Ny1XzXKLCD

40,001 views112 rt402 likesER:0.0071RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FoxNewsverified28,711,450 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that President Trump 'is not one to mess around' if they refuse to negotiate.

NEW: Vice President JD Vance warns Iran that President Trump "is not one to mess around" if the Islamic Republic refuses to come to the negotiating table: "He's impatient, he's impatient to make progress. He has told to us to negotiate in good faith. And I think if they negotiate in a good faith, we will be able to find a deal. That's a big if. And ultimately, it's up to the Iranian how they nego...

318,178 views397 rt1,992 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealAlexJonesverified4,493,992 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Michael Savage warns that Israel has signaled they will hit Iran with nuclear weapons and urges President Trump to reign in Netanyahu.

Israel Has Signaled They Are Going To Hit Iran With Nuclear Weapons, Warns Michael Savage! President Trump Must Reign Netanyahu In NOW Before He Gets Us All Killed, Savage Went On To State 🔴WATCH/SHARE THE LIVE X STREAM NOW: https://t.co/mZ6iqO1uky https://t.co/sOLq3ceBbn

46,373 views89 rt282 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@nicksortorverified1,506,666 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

President Trump is reportedly considering punishing NATO countries unhelpful during the Iran operation by moving US troops out of them.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is considering PUNISHING the NATO countries which were UNHELPFUL to the US during the Iran operation, per WSJ Trump would move US troops OUT of those particular NATO countries, and station them in countries that SUPPORTED the US. No brainer. And then he should totally withdraw from NATO.

22,831 views358 rt1,904 likesER:0.0060RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Investingcomverified1,483,173 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's Ghalibaf states that the ceasefire agreement with the US has been violated.

*IRAN'S GHALIBAF SAYS THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT WITH THE US HAS BEEN VIOLATED https://t.co/aTpLXxGdQ3

13,650 views28 rt141 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@GBNEWS916,439 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Journalist Linda Duberley believes it's incorrect for US President Donald Trump to claim there has been a regime change in Iran.

‘Short of reality.’ Journalist Linda Duberley believes that it’s incorrect for US President Donald Trump to say there has been a regime change in Iran. 📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604 https://t.co/AS0umkc0xU

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BlueGeorgiaverified67,775 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

MAGA mouthpieces are slamming the Iran deal, with figures like Laura Loomer and Nick Fuentes calling it a US defeat.

MS NOW montage of MAGA mouthpieces slamming Iran deal. Laura Loomer: It was not good at all to try to negotiate with these people. Nick Fuentes: This is a complete and total US defeat. Mark Levin: What about the people of Iran? Lawrence Jones: We have not reached any of those objectives.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@ysz888ysk351 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

US VP Vance stated it would be 'dumb' for Iran to derail a ceasefire over Lebanon.

US VP Vance says ‘would be dumb’ for Iran to derail ceasefire ‘over Lebanon’ https://t.co/mjBL8ds9uP @AJEnglishよりバンス米副大統領は、イランが「レバノンを理由に」停戦を頓挫させるのは「愚かな行為」だと述べた。バンス副大統領はハンガリー出発前に記者団に対し、次のように語った。

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ghosted959205 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Afghans celebrated a ceasefire between the US and Iran, brokered by Pakistan.

Cheers echoed through the streets of Kabul as Afghans celebrated the unexpected truce-a ceasefire between the US and Iran, quietly stitched together by Pakistan. https://t.co/BDFz5QsBbD

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@danvzla706 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Oil prices plunged and the Dow saw its best day in a year after a US-Iran ceasefire, though 'hurdles remain'.

Oil plunges, Dow sees its best day in a year after US-Iran ceasefire, but ‘hurdles remain’ | CNN Business https://t.co/Jja9yVLv6K

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@LOGOinvestorverified8,721 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The user suggests that China, India, and Middle Eastern countries are pressuring Iran due to energy concerns, but Iran wants turmoil in the US to influence elections.

Im sure china, india, middle east countries are putting pressure on Iran as they're energy source is pushing rationing etc BUT remember 1) Iran wants turmoil in US so Trump and GOP lose elections, that seems a sure thing now 2)The king has very little ability to stay out of the spotlight and not be part of news cycle daily SO, its hard to expect a proper easing of this conflict vs periodic vol and...

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@worldpolitics9214 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Reuters reports Israel launched heavy strikes on Lebanon, and the US & Iran have conflicting agendas for talks, indicating a shaky ceasefire.

It appears the ceasefire is truly "shaky" . Reuters reports Israel launched its heaviest strikes on Lebanon, while the US & Iran have conflicting agendas for talks. This doesn't look good. 🕊️🌍 #MiddleEast #Israël #Hürmüz #Irán

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@NewsNew973512044,639 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Oil prices plummeted and stocks surged after a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect.

Oil plunges, Dow sees its best day in a year after US-Iran ceasefire Oil prices plummeted and stocks surged Wednesday after a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect, spurring hopes that oil tankers would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI, the US crude benchmark, tumbled 16.41% to settle at $94.41 per barrel. Still, crude is well above the $67 per barr...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Melinda00744507848 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user suggests Iran will collect tolls as 'reparations' for war damage, with the US not receiving any money.

@jonkarl That's not the way I understand it. As a way of 'reparations' for the damage caused by this war, Iran will start collecting tolls. The US does not get any of the money. They're going to have to pay just like everybody else. So what exactly was WON here?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Trimarium1verified999 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes the US should let Iran handle the issue without interference, stating Trump owes this to Iran.

@RepDonBeyer No, US has to let Iran to take care of this issue without interfering. Trump owes this to Iran.

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@E_Scott_1996 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user questions the legitimacy of past US bombings of Iran during peace negotiations, implying current negotiations might also be disingenuous.

@atrupar Was it a "legitimate misunderstanding" the last two times the US bombed Iran during peace negotiations?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@redboatandrew563 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes Iran still holds most of the cards and should rely on raw power, viewing agreements with the US and Israel as meaningless.

@AngelicaOung Agree. Iran still holds most of the cards. Hopefully, it now clear that "agreements" with the US & Israel are meaningless. Iran must rely on raw power and take whatever actions is needed.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 121,377.48 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0015	0	+$890,534.81
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	0.01	+$234,923.72
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	116,947.76	+$50,488.21
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	121,377.48	+$48,014.77
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86