Trade Report :

US Forces Enter Iran Imminent, Says $396,593 Polymarket Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

MoronKiler (0xbebe49168cc3fe33fd9060c6fc83355c3359a8b5)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$396,592.65

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.997

Entry Price

2026-04-07 09:05:59 ET

Time

MoronKiler placed $396,592.65 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $130,219,643.364, 24h volume $47,779,068.345, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997

Yes odds at 0.997, market gives 99.7% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.7%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $396,592.65 becomes $397,785.65 (profit $1,193)
If wrong, loses $396,593

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

A whale just YOLO'd $396,593 on "US forces enter Iran: Yes," hoping to snag $1,193. At 99.7% odds, this isn't trading; it’s a high-stakes prayer that an F-15 pilot rescue *already happened* and counts.

This degenerate is risking a cool $396,593 for a measly $1,193. That's like picking up pennies in front of a freight train, hoping it's already passed. The "smart money" whales bought in at $0.54-$0.78. This guy is buying the *absolute top* at 99.7 cents. He's not following smart money, he's inhaling their exhaust fumes.

The fatal flaw? Resolution rules. Was it military? Or some shadowy intel ops? One tiny technicality, and this $396,593 vanishes faster than a politician's promise. A truly catastrophic tail risk for a fractional gain. This isn't alpha, it's a masterclass in how *not* to trade.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$130,219,643.364

24h Volume

$47,779,068.345

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational reasons by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific type of entry does not occur, excluding accidental entries, intelligence operatives, contractors, or diplomatic visits.

Timeline

The key timeline is the "listed date (ET)", which is the deadline by which the qualifying event must happen for the market to resolve "Yes".

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of trustworthy and reliable news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any US military presence in Iran counts; however, only deliberate entry onto land by active military for operational purposes qualifies, excluding intelligence, contractors, or diplomatic visits.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US troops Iran

Relevant tweets: 36

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran by..?" The market's a chaotic mess, a geopolitical 'Choose Your Own Adventure' where all paths lead to volatility. Trump's 8 PM EST "civilization will die" ultimatum collides with US VP Vance declaring "objectives complete." Are we escalating to Ragnarok or just playing good cop/bad cop?

Don't get caught in the Kharg Island airstrike trap. Airstrikes aren't "entering" unless your market rules are written by a drone pilot. The true alpha? Ron Paul’s whisper of F-15 pilots rescued *inside* Iran over the weekend. If US special forces already touched Iranian soil, that's your 'YES' ticket, unpriced by the masses.

Whales are hedging. With "positive talks" also floating, that 8 PM deadline is a guillotine for unhedged YES positions if diplomacy (or de-escalation spin) wins. This market isn't about grand invasions; it's about a technicality. Bet accordingly, or get rekt.

KOL — High Relevance (7)

KOL@Glenn_Diesenverified165,870 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

The US has allegedly set Tuesday 8pm EST as a time for action against Iran.

The US has set a time for its genocide against Iran: Tuesday 8pm EST https://t.co/ynFvWr0pQF

16,002 views192 rt613 likesER:0.0268RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PopCraveverified2,945,175 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Donald Trump stated that 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Iran doesn't make a deal with the US.

Donald Trump says “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran doesn’t make a deal with the US. https://t.co/mZGb1sjfu0

218,387 views167 rt2,519 likesER:0.0020RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@CNNverified61,747,896 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A US official states that the US has struck military targets on Iran's strategic Kharg Island.

US strikes military targets on Iran's strategic Kharg Island, US official says. Follow live updates. https://t.co/AVHULUqdff https://t.co/slJOnymX4B

40,342 views63 rt173 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@cryptoroververified1,559,265 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire proposal with the US, and strikes have reportedly hit Kharg Island after talks collapsed.

💥BREAKING: Iran rejects any temporary ceasefire proposal with the US, per Reuters. Strikes have reportedly hit Kharg Island after talks collapsed. https://t.co/pwQJ1MDshZ

59,437 views57 rt449 likesER:0.0010RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RonPaulverified1,268,997 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

A large US military operation was launched inside Iran over the weekend, near a suspected uranium storage site, to retrieve F-15 pilots.

Over the weekend a large US military operation was launched inside Iran, close to where some believe the 60 percent enriched uranium is stored. The stated goal was to retrieve F-15 pilots who were shot down in the area. But nothing at all adds up. Did the CIA or Mossad or someone else convince the US President that he could snatch Iran's uranium like he snatched Maduro out of Venezuela? What...

525,605 views2,029 rt8,424 likesER:0.0386RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Up_Neuz4 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump stated 'A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT' with a deadline of 8 PM ET, and the US is reportedly striking Kharg Island.

🚨 Trump: "A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT" 😳 Deadline: 8PM ET today — hours away ⏰ US already striking Kharg Island — Iran's biggest oil hub 💥 Iran forming HUMAN CHAINS around power plants 😔 This is the most dangerous night of the war 🌍 #IranWar #IndiaNews #Hormuz https://t.co/WCWR13MDma

2 views0 rt1 likesER:0.2500RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@SkyNewsverified8,740,873 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social, 'A whole civilization will die tonight,' referring to a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"A whole civilization will die tonight" Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social, seemingly referring to his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He adds "maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?". https://t.co/USH18TtBJS https://t.co/aBmVsfla40

132,686 views128 rt483 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@_GlobeObserververified90,650 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran announced it will destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Israel and all countries hosting US bases in the region.

BREAKING: Iran has announced that it will destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Israel and all other countries that host US bases in the region https://t.co/78xt4iDyyZ

883 views17 rt63 likesER:0.0044RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FalconUpdatesHQverified149,903 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated he is ready to sacrifice his life for Iran, and that over 14 million Iranians are ready to do the same.

BREAKING 🚨 ⚡️🇮🇷 Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says he is ready to sacrifice his life for Iran. 🤯 🇮🇷 He says over 14 million Iranians are ready to give their lives for the nation. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Statement comes as US and Israel continue strikes on Iran, raising tensions. https://t.co/gJWuATq1xd

126,400 views104 rt683 likesER:0.0184RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

KOL@OunkaOnXverified219,046 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran stated that talks and indirect negotiations with the US have been halted following Trump's threats.

Iran says talks and indirect negotiations with the US have been halted following Trump's threats https://t.co/l4RPa9zVUV

773 views11 rt42 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@unusual_whalesverified3,549,428 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran stated it will 'target US and partners' infrastructure' and threatens to disrupt regional oil and gas.

BREAKING: Iran says will "target US and partners' infrastructure," and threatens to disrupt regional oil an dgas.

58,287 views63 rt615 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Sputnik_Indiaverified125,899 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

As of April 7, the US-Israeli war on Iran has resulted in dozens of new civilian and military casualties across the region.

🚨🇮🇷Lethality rises in US-Israeli war on Iran As of April 7, the conflict leaves dozens of new civilian and military casualties across the region. https://t.co/3BGfn8xS9R

727 views3 rt8 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@PressTV570,345 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran urged its southern neighbors to deny the US military use of their airspace and territory.

Iran urges southern neighbors to deny US military use of airspace, territory https://t.co/9vYT7Ctodg

7,041 views27 rt147 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NoLimitGainsverified1,518,643 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Both the US and Iran have rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

🚨 The US and Iran have both rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

168,472 views228 rt2,990 likesER:0.0050RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,648,780 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The US-Israel war on Iran has resulted in widespread destruction of cultural heritage sites, educational institutions, and research centers.

The US-Israel war on Iran has resulted in the widespread destruction of its cultural heritage sites, as well as educational institutions and research centres. 🔗: https://t.co/0ykXnQccHP https://t.co/YAspl8ihFR

12,920 views44 rt62 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@KobeissiLetterverified1,659,306 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran delivered its 10-point response to the US' 15-point peace plan, including a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again.

BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open ...

6,118,317 views4,541 rt29,757 likesER:0.0727RR:3.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Polymarketverified1,343,851 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Both the US and Iran have rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

BREAKING: The US & Iran have both rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

402,996 views854 rt5,935 likesER:0.0171RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@PakMonitors1 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Tehran rejected a 45-day ceasefire plan and submitted its own list.

#Tehran rejected 45-Days #ceasefire plan and sent back its own list #Ceasefire #Iran #US https://t.co/fGmRR6Xomw

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@777enjoyerverified282 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran is decentralized and backed by China and Russia.

@simulaxion What makes you think that Iran is knocked out ? The us government is acting out inexcusable behavior and the whole world knows it Iran is decentralized and is backed by China and Russia who also know the us behavior is inexcusable

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@byul_financeverified1,325 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

US Vice President Vance declared Iran war military objectives complete and expects an imminent conclusion.

$LMT $RTX US Vice President Vance declares Iran war military objectives complete and expects imminent conclusion

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ifediegwu1759verified51 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

A senior US official stated that talks with Iran have been positive and a resolution might be reached by the end of the day.

BREAKING: Senior US official tells [hemmer] this morning, "We are absolutely in touch with (Iran). Absolutely. (The talks) have been positive. If we get lucky, we will have something by the end of the day." https://t.co/QKnhVxNW2u… https://t.co/RXEKhm8VCH

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@pickeringenergy35,505 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The US/Iran situation is characterized as a conflict, not a war, as neither side appears scared.

Have been thinking about this US/Iran situation. It is a conflict not a war. Because in a war, both sides are scared. Doesn’t appear to me that either Iran or US is actually scared. US populace certainty isn’t. Might be a war after tonight? Hope not. #EFT #OOTT

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AubreyEl1285 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

Iran has a right under international law to a civilian nuclear energy program.

@cspanwj @Brad_L_Bowman Mr. @Brad_L_Bowman, Iran has a right under internat'l law to a civilian nuclear energy program. Why shud they surrender it? After @Israel & the US hv attacked IRN twice during negotiations--do you really think IRN is going to surrender its only weapon against Israeli aggression?

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MarketNews_Feedverified5,264 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

A senior US official stated that talks with Iran have been positive and a resolution might be reached by the end of the day.

SENIOR US OFFICIAL TELLS [HEMMER] THIS MORNING, "WE ARE ABSOLUTELY IN TOUCH WITH (IRAN). ABSOLUTELY. (THE TALKS) HAVE BEEN POSITIVE. IF WE GET LUCKY, WE WILL HAVE SOMETHING BY THE END OF THE DAY." - FOX NEWS ...

107 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0040RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@guyfindorrverified3,910 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

@FoxNews @kareemah2017 so how many time needed a nuclear reach targeted area @grok? est. from us to iran

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@NateB_Panic41,443 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Every journalist who repeated US-Israel propaganda about 'peaceful protests', who refers to 'the regime,' who say Iran wants to be bombed and who found any dubious angle to foment anti-Iran sentiment needs to take a good long hard look in the mirror and then kill themselves

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@dkdeekes211 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

@IObservePeace why is the US bombing Iran?? why are they there. Give me one solid reason besides israel propaganda

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0035	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9965	800,779.93	+$289,815.07
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9965	620,990.26	+$233,992.23
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0035	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9965	130,947.76	+$50,193.19
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9965	175,760.61	+$47,690.45
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9965	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9965	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9965	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9965	0	+$35,796.86