Trade Report :

Mystery Trader Bets $289,710: US Forces Will Enter Iran

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

Euan (0xdd225a03cd7ed89e3931906c67c75ab31cf89ef1) · @Euanker

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$289,710

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.999

Entry Price

2026-04-07 23:35:41 ET

Time

Euan placed $289,710 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.999 (market gives 99.9% probability). Total market volume $197,089,989.154, 24h volume $81,362,659.934, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.999

Yes odds at 0.999, market gives 99.9% chance

0.1%

Yes

99.9%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $289,710 becomes $290,000 (profit $290)
If wrong, loses $289,710

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale just risked $289,710 to pocket a pathetic $290 on 'US forces enter Iran YES.' That's not a trade; it's a Roman emperor sacrificing a legion for a single coin. Market's at 99.9% Yes, but this isn't genius, it's hubris.

The *real* smart money already cashed out their $807k PnL like digital Midas, leaving our guy to scavenge the crumbs. He's betting the event's already done, ignoring the "ceasefire" tweets. But the resolution rules? 'Military ops vs. intelligence operatives' is a semantic minefield.

One oracle misstep, one bureaucratic hiccup, and $289,710 vanishes faster than my crypto portfolio in a bear market. This isn't even picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This is *lying down* in front of it. An objectively bad trade.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$197,089,989.154

24h Volume

$81,362,659.934

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel, including special forces, deliberately step onto Iranian land for operational purposes by the specified deadline. It resolves "No" if no such deliberate entry onto Iranian land by qualifying US military personnel occurs, or if the entry is by non-qualifying individuals like intelligence operatives or diplomats.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events occurring up to a specific date and time, which is listed on the market page and is in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be decided based on what multiple trustworthy news sources generally agree upon.

Special Cases

The rules specify that non-deliberate entry, or entry by intelligence operatives, military contractors, advisors, or diplomats, will not count towards a "Yes" resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, US Iran conflict, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran by..?" Near-term "YES" bets are toast. A 2-week ceasefire, brokered by China, sent oil prices crashing 15%. Buy "NO" aggressively for the next 14-21 days. Ride that whale money.

But this isn't peace; it's a Potemkin village of de-escalation. Iran is still raining missiles on Tel Aviv *after* the ceasefire. Russia calls the Middle East "on fire." The US-Iran "negotiations" are a Gaslighting Olympics: Trump calls CNN's report on Iran's "10-point framework" "fraudulent."

The US wants nukes gone in 2 weeks; Iran wants Hormuz. This 14-day window is a ticking powder keg. Use this dip to position for violent long-term "YES" volatility. Don't be a mark.

KOL — High Relevance (2)

KOL@IranArmystan_verified134,280 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Russia stated the Middle East is "on fire" and described US and Israeli attacks as wrong and dangerous, with unconfirmed reports of its involvement.

🇮🇷 🇷🇺 Breaking: Russia said that the Middle East is “on fire.” It described the attacks by the US and Israel as wrong and dangerous. It has not directly joined the war, but there are reports that it is giving indirect support to Iran (such as intelligence). https://t.co/hcz41zCRTf

1,253 views8 rt43 likesER:0.0015RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Partisangirlverified560,019 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Iran is perceived to have won a full-scale war with the US, getting Trump to accept its demands while still launching cluster missiles at Israel.

Iran stands. Iran remains. In a full scale war with the US “super power”, Iran has won. It got Trump to accept all its demands while still launching cluster missiles at Israel. https://t.co/OzWkS9b7xK

5,446 views78 rt354 likesER:0.0034RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@HQNewsNowverified1,157,738 flwQ:5/5analysisbearish

Iran's 10-point framework, praised by Trump, includes lifting all US sanctions on Iran, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, and a $2 million fee for passage.

The 10-point Iranian framework that Trump is praising and bragging about does the following: —Lifts all US sanctions on Iran —Cedes control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran —A $2 million fee for every ship that travels the Strait —Allows Iran to establish "rules for safe passage" https://t.co/5uSevXC8dR

370,493 views501 rt1,749 likesER:0.0102RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ggreenwaldverified2,394,967 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

AP reports the ceasefire entitles Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, splitting revenue with Oman, for reconstruction.

AP reports that the cease fire entitles Iran to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, split with Oman, and to use that money for reconstruction. (Prior to the Israeli/US attack, passage through the Strait was free). https://t.co/p4KxilJvhg https://t.co/S0TyeWE5If

239,248 views481 rt1,728 likesER:0.0047RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,381 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

The US and Iran have agreed to an immediate 2-week ceasefire.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to immediate 2-week ceasefire.

1,536,651 views2,632 rt20,603 likesER:0.0362RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,381 flwQ:5/5newsbearish

Iran has officially accepted a 2-week ceasefire with the US and Israel.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran officially accepts 2-week ceasefire with US and Israel.

264,521 views540 rt4,519 likesER:0.0076RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@owenjonesjournoverified1,083,265 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Trump has accepted Iran's 10-point plan as a "workable basis on which to negotiate," which is interpreted as a strategic defeat for the US.

This is Iran's 10 point plan - which Trump has accepted as "a workable basis on which to negotiate." Have no doubt: This is the biggest strategic defeat suffered by the US since its emergence as a superpower. https://t.co/B3b0Gn66L1

1,054,708 views3,554 rt11,541 likesER:0.0763RR:1.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,024,381 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

China pushed Iran to seek a ceasefire with the US, according to AP.

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇮🇷 China pushed Iran to seek ceasefire with the US, AP reports. https://t.co/0hbmMKCUuD

415,898 views1,244 rt9,160 likesER:0.0168RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WatcherGuruverified3,908,881 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

US oil prices crashed over 15% following a ceasefire with Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US oil prices crash over 15% following ceasefire with Iran. https://t.co/ENgmnjdeKC

252,111 views400 rt2,865 likesER:0.0028RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@LBGamestipsverified281,774 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

A ceasefire deal between Iran and the United States has been agreed upon.

BIG BREAKING CEASEFIRE DEAL BETWEEN IRAN 🇮🇷 AND THE UNITED STATES 🇺🇸 AGREED

1,190 views3 rt45 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FurkanGozukaraverified238,799 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

CNN confirms Iran's response to the ceasefire, stating they will only stop "defensive operations" if the US stops attacking.

Absolute masterclass by Iran. CNN confirms Iran's response to the ceasefire. They declare they will only stop "defensive operations" if the US stops attacking. More importantly, they dictate that passage through Strait of Hormuz will be strictly under the coordination of Iran https://t.co/WFULJ5HaTQ

63,784 views67 rt395 likesER:0.0073RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,809,306 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump announced a ceasefire simultaneously with Iran firing missiles towards Israel, according to Hebrew Media.

🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 BREAKING: "Trump announced a ceasefire simultaneously with the firing of missiles from Iran towards Israel. They are simply mocking us." - Hebrew Media https://t.co/f83w90BNso

267,393 views792 rt4,354 likesER:0.0053RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (1)

RETAIL@Popcorn_Patriotverified2,636 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

@mrddmia @Article3Project How would we feel of they had there tanks rolling through our streets? The kids who watched us overthrow their government radicalized and grew into leaders in Iran...This is a cyclic thing. Overthrowing governments does not work long term. We should have never been in the middle east. Ever.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@RapidReport2025verified19,167 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Missile alerts occurred in Saudi Arabia after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.

BREAKING: Missile alerts in Saudi Arabia after US-Iran ceasefire https://t.co/1Zo80tDAjd

6,799 views5 rt12 likesER:0.0058RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Afsana112530938 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Two hours after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, Iran launched another wave of missiles and drones towards Israel and the Middle East.

BREAKING : Just 2 hours after the ceasefire announced by the US President Trump, Iran launched another wave of missiles & drones towards Israel & Middle East. #Ceasefire #WorldWar3 #PakistanZindabad #IslamabadTalks #SaudiArabia #worldhealthdaywithpaec #مزاحمت_سے_زنجیریں_ٹوٹیں_گی https://t.co/080LWxA1B6

2 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@StumpytheCorgiverified981 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran has agreed to 12 of 15 US conditions, with the remaining three under negotiation for two weeks, including a permanent commitment to not possessing nuclear weapons.

@ginamilan_ From Saudi Arabia: Iran has agreed to 12 of the US conditions, with the remaining three conditions under negotiation for two weeks: 1- Permanent commitment to not possessing nuclear weapons 2- Handing over enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency 3- Allowing the Agency to monitor all nuclear infrastructure 4- Permanently halting uranium enrichment inside Iran 5- Red...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@RapidReport2025verified19,167 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Missile alerts in Kuwait and launches towards Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Israel, and UAE occurred after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.

BREAKING: Missile alert in Kuwait Missiles have been launched at Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Israel, UAE AFTER US-Iran ceasefire announcement https://t.co/gpj1w8cIEr

4,927 views6 rt19 likesER:0.0073RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@xxxxxxx139332900 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The cost of a US war with Iran is estimated at $25-40B+ and rising, with $1.4-2.9B in equipment losses.

@sentdefender The cost of 🇺🇲 war with Iran so far: 💰: $11.3B in first 6 d, $16.5B by day 12. Now burning ~$500M–$1B d. Total likely $25–40B+ and rising fast. Equipment: $1.4–2.9B in losses & damage (including ✈️ , radars, tankers, drones). Casualties: At least 13 US k, 350 w. Worth it?

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DejikaDonatova3 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Iran might reduce traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to less than 25% of previous levels until Israel withdraws from Lebanon and the US withdraws from the Gulf.

@realnickenting @mmjukic No one has to start shooting. Iran keeps traffic thru the straight <25% previous levels until Israel withdraws from Lebanon and US withdraws from Gulf. The economic pressure stays until the US makes good on its word. And no one bombs them in the meantime.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ali_T_ALTA268 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

A potential deal includes a US non-aggression pact, Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, new maritime protocols, nuclear enrichment rights, lifted sanctions, and closed UN/IAEA cases.

@LauraLoomer Do you call this a victory?! : - US non-aggression pact - Iran Strait of Hormuz control - New maritime protocols - Nuclear enrichment rights - ALL sanctions lifted - UN/IAEA cases closed - US pays war damages - Troops leave region - End attacks on Proxies - All assets unfrozen

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Simfin_BWverified14 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

US stocks closed flat, but futures and other global stocks are up 2-4% following a Trump announcement.

Market update US stocks closed flat after big initial decline Dow jones closed 0.20% down and Nasdaq closed 0.10% up US futures along with other Asian and European stocks are up 2 to 4% as Trump announced ceasefire via deal brokered by Pakistan Iran acknowledged the same Crude oil is down 20% , gold up 3% and silver up 6% FII sold 8000 crore in cash and bought 1000 crore in futures Initial ...

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@_proud_bangali_175 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The US has postponed the war for two weeks to start negotiations with Iran, with uncertainty about the temporary ceasefire's duration.

@keshavbedi But bro , US just postponed the war for two weeks. They will now start negotiations with Iran . But the point is will this temporary ceasefire last for two weeks?

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MRaja931825 flwQ:2/5newsbearish

A video discusses Iran and the US agreeing to a ceasefire.

Big Blunder by Shehbaz Sharif! Iran and US agree to ceasefire || Imran R... https://t.co/kVseLKEhR1 via @YouTube

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0010	0.0015	0	+$807,368.48
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	620,990.26	+$235,234.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	138,947.76	+$50,499.21
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	175,760.61	+$48,041.97
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86