Trade Report :

99.6% Sure: US Forces Will Enter Iran, $239,930 Market Bet

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

tutrucks (0xce71bed9dd1418abc34d244730879d795e8683bc)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$239,930.01

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.996

Entry Price

2026-04-07 14:31:05 ET

Time

tutrucks placed $239,930.01 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.996 (market gives 99.6% probability). Total market volume $146,080,149.251, 24h volume $51,281,373.109, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.996

Yes odds at 0.996, market gives 99.6% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.6%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $239,930.01 becomes $240,894.01 (profit $964)
If wrong, loses $239,930

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just parked $239,930 on "US forces enter Iran" at 99.6% Yes, hoping to snag a quick $964.

That's a 0.4% return. Risking a quarter-mil to make a grand.

This isn't trading, it's picking up pennies in front of a Polymarket steamroller.

The whale isn't betting on the event, but on the *oracle* not screwing up.

Twitter screams "Tier 1 Special Forces already landed!"

But the rules? "Intelligence operatives will not count."

Guess what covert ops are often classified as? Title 50 intelligence missions.

This isn't smart money. The real whales bought Yes at $0.54-$0.78, now sitting on $289k profits.

This trader is buying the top, chasing scraps.

If the US government plays coy, or the oracle gets pedantic about "military vs. intelligence," that $239,930 vanishes.

For a potential $964.

This isn't a trade; it's a financial death wish with a side of delusion.

Bad trade. Horrifically bad.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$146,080,149.251

24h Volume

$51,281,373.109

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational reasons by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding non-deliberate entry, diplomatic visits, or entry by non-military personnel.

Timeline

The market's outcome depends on events occurring by a specific deadline, which is the listed date in Eastern Time (ET). No other specific resolution date or effective time is mentioned.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among reliable news sources and reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might misunderstand that only entry onto Iran's land by active US military for operational purposes counts, excluding air/sea entry, intelligence agents, contractors, or diplomatic visits. It's also easy to miss that the entry must be deliberate, not accidental.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The market's playing dumb on "US forces enter Iran." Whales aren't. US Special Forces *already* landed C-130s and Black Hawks *inside* Iran for a rescue mission. They fought IRGC, destroyed their own aircraft. This isn't D-Day; it's a covert insertion.

OSINT confirms success, while Iran/RT spins the *same damn event* as a "failed" rescue. Classic info warfare. But boots touched soil.

The trap? Resolution criteria. If "enter" means any physical presence, "YES" is a steal below 90%. If the market demands a full-scale, conventional invasion, you're holding a bag of hot air.

April 30 deadline looms. This isn't theoretical. The genie's out, now check the fine print or get played.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@jacksonhinklleverified3,808,116 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US Special Forces blew up two US military transport planes that got stuck on the ground in Iran during an F-15 officer rescue operation.

🚨 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Special Forces 'blew up' two US military transport planes that got stuck on ground in Iran during F-15 officer rescue operation. https://t.co/v3I4M8jPq6

227,901 views1,254 rt7,177 likesER:0.0085RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NicholasLissackverified88,366 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

In Dehdasht, locals are blocking IRGC and Basij reinforcements, while IRGC units are clashing with US special forces rescuing a downed F-15 pilot north of town.

In Dehdasht tonight, locals have flooded the streets, blocking IRGC and Basij reinforcements. North of town, IRGC units are clashing with US special forces rescuing the downed F-15 pilot. This is going badly for the regime. Free Iran. https://t.co/mVPTtLyHZz

42,224 views548 rt2,000 likesER:0.1467RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,020,725 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran. https://t.co/uJv89NVfbj

3,900,437 views3,910 rt30,324 likesER:0.0537RR:1.9Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,473,534 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Remains of a USAF M/HC-130 Hercules transport aircraft were destroyed by US forces before departing their forward base in Iran after recovering a downed F-15 aircrew.

Remains of the USAF M/HC-130 Hercules transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing their forward base in Iran, used successfully to recover the downed F-15 aircrew. The aircraft had reportedly become stuck in the soft ground and were blown up to avoid capture. https://t.co/bSzjIsRx3h

1,381,649 views1,210 rt7,561 likesER:0.0216RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RT_com3,483,099 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/c12LwJM1yW

231,096 views1,512 rt8,931 likesER:0.0112RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RT_com3,483,099 flwQ:5/5analysisbearish

Anthony Aguilar, a retired US Lieutenant Colonel and Special Forces Officer, states that the United States does not have air superiority in Iran.

'United States does NOT have air superiority' in Iran Anthony Aguilar, retired US Lieutenant Colonel and Special Forces Officer, to RT https://t.co/y7PADGm84L

41,537 views238 rt1,280 likesER:0.0017RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DrEliDavidverified854,806 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US rescue forces landed multiple planes in a remote base in Iran, according to the NYT.

Wow 🤯 US rescue forces landed multiple planes in a remote base in Iran 👇 Source: NYT _ https://t.co/9QMo0E80nA

30,903 views178 rt1,235 likesER:0.0056RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranArmystan_verified134,090 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran.

🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran. https://t.co/Rr0dHHQjMv

5,429 views23 rt165 likesER:0.0047RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,529,409 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Recent reports from multiple outlets confirm Iranian forces shot down two US jets (an F-15E Strike Eagle and an A-10 Warthog) around April.

@Dhanjivpandey @Tehran_lives Yes, recent reports from multiple outlets (CNN, Reuters, NYT, Guardian) confirm Iranian forces shot down two US jets—an F-15E Strike Eagle and an A-10 Warthog—around April 3-4, 2026. Crews were rescued. The broader US-Israel war with Iran started Feb 28, so it didn't "start" today. The image matches circulating wreckage photos from those incidents.

578 views1 rt3 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@visionergeoverified209,212 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iranian sources claim that US and Israeli forces have begun targeting power infrastructure in Iran, including Power Station No. 123 near Al-Masla Street in Mashhad.

‼️🇺🇲🇮🇱🇮🇷 BREAKING | Iranian sources claim that U.S. and Israeli forces have begun targeting power infrastructure in Iran, including Power Station No. 123 near Al-Masla Street in the city of Mashhad. See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo https://t.co/AJ2voY5anD

36,199 views193 rt462 likesER:0.0207RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@RT_com3,483,099 flwQ:5/5newsneutral

Iran attacked the US Al-Adairi base in Kuwait with missiles and drones, destroying helicopter hangars and accommodations for US forces.

⚡️ Iran attacks US Al-Adairi base in Kuwait with swarm of missiles and drones 'Helicopter hangars and accommodations for invading US forces DESTROYED As promised, we will severely punish the enemy for last night’s terrorist acts' https://t.co/Vem5NNvRGc

203,989 views1,981 rt8,782 likesER:0.0139RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Currentreport1verified199,947 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Kuwait reports Iran hit two power and water desalination plants, while Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles.

BREAKING: Kuwait says Iran hit 2 power and water desalination plants overnight, causing major damage. Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles. https://t.co/m4A3MwZeDw

30,980 views359 rt1,833 likesER:0.0451RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@rkmtimesverified123,693 flwQ:4/5newsneutral

Iran has deployed thousands of mines via submarines, small boats, coastal anti-ship missiles, and fast-attack boats that could destroy the US Navy and forces.

JUST IN🇮🇷❌🇺🇸🔥 Iran has uses thousands of stockpile of Mines deployed via Submarines, Small boats, coastal anti-ship missiles, fast-attack Mosquito boats that could destroy US navy and US forces presence near Kharg Island or Strait of Hormuz.

15,938 views145 rt798 likesER:0.0299RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@DougAMacgregorverified666,833 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral

Iran's standoff attack weapons could apply precise and devastating firepower against US armed forces, changing 21st-century warfare.

The application of precise, devastating firepower from Iran's standoff attack weapons in all domains of warfare against the US armed forces is going to change the 21st century. FULL ARTICLE: https://t.co/U3pMmWJuN7 https://t.co/KlkfJlpIOl

24,318 views132 rt503 likesER:0.0047RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ReutersIran212,482 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, according to a military spokesperson.

Iran struck US forces relocated on Kuwait's Bubiyan island, military spokesperson says - https://t.co/LYprpGZW6X

3,184 views7 rt31 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@mr_mayankverified108,037 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has openly revolted against Trump, and the UK has officially withdrawn its forces from Iraq.

BREAKING : 🇬🇧 UK PM Keir Starmer has now openly revolted against Trump UK has now officially withdrawn its forces from Iraq, second country after 🇪🇸 Spain to do so since Iran War Trump wanted to isolate Iran, but look how the 🇺🇸 US is getting globally isolated. This is 6D chess 🔥

429 views17 rt44 likesER:0.0036RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@businessverified9,942,418 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Nuclear officials are concerned about a region-wide radiological event if Israeli or US forces target Iranian power plants.

With the clock ticking on US strikes against Iranian power plants, nuclear officials are raising the alarm over a region-wide radiological event if Israeli or US forces target the Persian Gulf nation’s Bushehr nuclear plant https://t.co/Jl8sREG06y

20,870 views39 rt106 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FirstSquawkverified493,351 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi warned that any US attack on Iranian infrastructure would be met with a forceful response.

ABBAS ARAGHCHI, THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S FOREIGN MINISTER, TOLD HIS FRENCH COUNTERPART JEAN-NOEL BARROT THAT ANY US ATTACK ON INFRASTRUCTURE IN IRAN WOULD BE MET WITH A FORCEFUL RESPONSE FROM THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S ARMED FORCES.

32,399 views30 rt227 likesER:0.0017RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlArabiya_Eng875,770 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

The White House denies that Vice President JD Vance's remarks about military operations in Iran suggested a US nuclear strike.

The White House denies that remarks by Vice President JD Vance about military operations in Iran contained any suggestion of a US nuclear strike against the Islamic republic. After Vance said US forces have tools they “so far haven’t decided to use” to enforce a dramatic ultimatum from President Donald Trump, the White House said on X: “Literally nothing @VP said here ‘implies’ this, you absolute...

3,883 views11 rt12 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,529,409 flwQ:2/5newsbullish

B-52s are departing RAF Fairford today as part of Operation Epic Fury, and US strikes on Iranian military targets are continuing, according to multiple reports.

@AntDX316 @stellarman22 With B-52s departing RAF Fairford today as part of Operation Epic Fury, US strikes on Iranian military targets continue—reports from BBC, Forbes, Air & Space Forces, and OSINT confirm sustained ops with air superiority achieved over parts of Iran. The campaign focuses on degrading capabilities amid regional tensions. Developments are fluid.

175 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (4)

RETAIL@geotechwarverified5,380 flwQ:3/5firsthandbullish

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that U.S. forces launched one-way attack drones into Iran during Operation Epic Fury.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM): Last night, U.S. forces launched one-way attack drones into Iran during Operation Epic Fury. CENTCOM made history a month ago when it began using low-cost aerial attack drones in combat for the first time. #US #Israel #Iran “Today, hundreds of U.S. drones are fully integrated into offensive and defensive operations against Iran. These platforms operate in the air, ...

48 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@globalnewscheckverified24 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter states that those who carried out the US operation inside Iran belong to an "elite, Tier 1 special operations forces unit".

BREAKING : Former US Marine intelligence officer @RealScottRitter says those who carried out the US operation inside #Iran belong to an "elite, Tier 1 special operations forces unit" that does not participate in rescue operations. Scott Ritter is a Former UN Weapons Inspector and a former USMC Intelligence Officer #iranwar #USAF

70 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:2.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Americasoldier_verified1,757 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

US forces successfully rescued personnel and destroyed two C-130 Forward Operating Bases.

Iran losing hard this Easter! 📉🔥 Not only did US forces get their guy back, but they also wiped out two C-130 Forward Operating Bases so the opposition gets nothing. That’s how you handle business. 🦅💪 https://t.co/4C1xCN1U9S

485 views6 rt23 likesER:0.0814RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@daobinhyen6817 flwQ:2/5analysisbullish

The likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rises to 86.5%.

French container ship exits Hormuz safely. Likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rises to 86.5%. Trump threatens to seize Iranian oil, risking negotiation collapse. #Iran #Oil https://t.co/6VDOG6vXTg

30 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.8Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@annettewickstr12,358 flwQ:2/5newsneutral

Iran has fired hypersonic missiles, and US forces are on maximum alert.

Breaking News LIVE: Iran Fires Hypersonic Missiles, US Forces On Maximum... https://t.co/CefyJncdLK via @YouTube

83 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ZringNewsverified1,116 flwQ:2/5newsneutral

Abdullah Mohtadi denies rumors about his group receiving or distributing weapons.

#Abdullah #Mohtadi to Iran International: "We have always supported the Iranian people and their movements. Rumors about us receiving or distributing #weapons are completely false — just a new excuse for #Kurd-haters. #Kurds remain one of the strongest forces against the Islamic Republic in the fight for a democratic, pluralistic, and secular #Iran . Despite constant regime attacks, we have stayed...

15 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0188RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@JBobu2182 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

Iran's armed forces are the only reason why the US cannot destroy Iran like they did in Iraq, Syria, and Libya.

@thelaughinstorm Iran's armed forces are the only reason why the US terrorists can't destroy Iran like they did in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Do you think these devils will spare any of you when they are blowing up twenty schools full of children each day? You are Westoxified.

16 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@imsleepy67522 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

The presence of US bases does not give Iran the right to self-defense in countries that do not allow US attacks from their land.

@msharifwali @aliimumtaz Just bc they have US bases it doesnt give iran the rigth to "self defence" at countries that repeatedly said they wont allow US to attack from their land. they should only bomb US bases and forces not their civilian sites. They even threatened to respond "beyond region"

26 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Farzandeir87222200 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

King Reza Pahlavi issued a call and warning to the armed forces of Iran.

@PahlaviReza “To the armed forces of our ancient land: Take our King’s call and warning seriously, or you will not be taken seriously by us, the people of Iran.” #KingRezaPahlavi‌ForIran #DigitalBlackOutIran‌ #KingRezaPahlavi

126 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.6Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@AbdulWakeelAZH625 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

Pakistan security forces need special measures for homeland security as an attack on Iran could create opportunities for enemies.

Tonight Pakistan security forces need some special measures for homeland security. Any worst attack on Iran by a fool fox will also provide opportunity for our enemies to damage us. @PakMilitaryClub @PakPMO

23 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TheLionofEuropa78 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

Purposely planting schools near IRGC bases leads to casualties, and US forces do not deliberately attack schools.

@unclehwild32267 @power_white @scrowder Yeah, purposely planting schools near IRGC bases leads to casualties. You are acting as if US forces deliberately attack schools and such. Islamist terrorists do that. And you are being simplistic. There is no reason to bend over and allow Iran to become a threat regardless.

19 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Farzandeir87222200 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

King Reza Pahlavi issued a call and warning to the armed forces of Iran.

“To the armed forces of our ancient land: Take our King’s call and warning seriously, or you will not be taken seriously by us, the people of Iran.” #KingRezaPahlavi‌ForIran #DigitalBlackOutIran‌ #KingRezaPahlavi

24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@welldone_movies1,449 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

Iran may end up severely damaged, but a strategic concession could be better than a complete loss.

When an opponent forces you to take a draw in chess, that's still a lot better than a loss. And the true strategist knows just when to concede -- or resign. ...Iran may end up a smoking hole but the resulting crisis will no doubt backfire on the US and disaffect other nations. 🤔

25 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@wolf_rayet47137 flwQ:1/5opinionneutral

If Iran keeps attacking Saudi oil, it could lead to division among Muslims, US oil dominance, and Israeli expansion.

@AU_Gestapo GCC is trapped & Iran will..if it keeps attacking Saudi oil & forces Saudia to retaliate. Muslims will be divided. US will dominate oil,Israel will expand in middle east & Iran would have lost a war won only bcz of overdrive & lack of wisdom. Russia & China read it through at UN. https://t.co/XefvEWQQa7

29 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0045	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9955	800,779.93	+$289,014.29
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9955	620,990.26	+$233,371.24
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0045	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9955	130,947.76	+$50,062.24
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9955	175,760.61	+$47,514.68
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9955	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9955	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9955	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9955	0	+$35,796.86