Trade Report :

Someone Bets $229,540: US Forces Will Not Enter Iran

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

TerreMoto (0x0b219cf3d297991b58361dbebdbaa91e56b8deb6)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$229,539.99

Trade Amount

SELL Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-07 20:46:21 ET

Time

TerreMoto placed $229,539.99 SELL Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $176,736,783.155, 24h volume $66,080,044.13, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.3%

Yes

99.8%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $229,539.99 becomes $229,999.99 (profit $460)
If wrong, loses $229,540

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Meet the whale who just dropped $229,540 on 'US forces enter Iran' at 99.8% for a princely $460. This isn't trading, it's capital parking in front of a steamroller. The risk/reward? A stunning 0.002:1. My guy needs 99.8% certainty, which only exists in death, taxes, and maybe his fever dreams.

Actual smart money? The $751,924 PnL whale already cashed out with 0.0 shares. They rode the wave from $0.60. This whale is the exit liquidity, showing up after the champagne ran dry.

That $460 payout? It hinges on the Pentagon clarifying if a rumored Natanz raid was Title 10 military or Title 50 CIA. Good luck getting that memo, anon. You could earn more just staking USDC. This isn't a trade. It's a prayer. A bad one.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$176,736,783.155

24h Volume

$66,080,044.13

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met, excluding intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, diplomatic entries, or accidental entries.

Timeline

The market's outcome is determined by events occurring by the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET). No specific resolution date is provided.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible news reports and information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any US military presence in Iran counts; however, only deliberate entry onto land for operational purposes, excluding intelligence, diplomatic, or accidental entries, qualifies.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: Iran invasion, US military Iran, US Iran war

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran"? The market's a hot mess of "did it happen or is it happening?" Schrödinger's invasion.

Retail's pricing a D-Day landing. Wrong war, wrong century. Pentagon’s talking "limited ground raids," Special Ops. Think *Zero Dark Thirty*, not *Saving Private Ryan*.

Whispers of a downed F-15 at Natanz? If a covert raid *already happened*, the "YES" shares are criminally underpriced. That's the alpha.

Trump’s "wipe out civilization" threats? Mostly sound and fury, signifying nothing. Don't chase the bluster.

Whales are checking the fine print: what *exactly* counts as "entering"? A Special Forces boot on the ground? A downed pilot?

This isn't about tanks. It's about *terms and conditions*. Read 'em. Or get rekt.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@warsurvverified185,882 flwQ:5/5firsthandbearish

Former CIA Larry Johnson confirms the theory that a downed US F-15 in Iran was part of a failed ground invasion targeting the Natanz nuclear facility.

JUST IN: FORMER CIA LARRY JOHNSON CONFIRMS MY THEORY - YESTERDAY WAS A FAILED GROUND INVASION The downed US F-15 in Iran was actually preparing for a massive ground attack on the Natanz nuclear facility. The rescue mission was a total catastrophe. https://t.co/CIk0tjGEZj

4,412 views13 rt40 likesER:0.0016RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,307,211 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The Pentagon has developed contingency plans for possible limited ground raids inside Iran, involving Special Operations forces and conventional infantry.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon has put together contingency plans for possible limited ground raids inside Iran. According to reports, these would involve Special Operations forces and some conventional infantry units, not a full invasion. Source: U.S. Defense News https://t.co/5yld7p0g6V

165,744 views61 rt404 likesER:0.0005RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,307,211 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The Pentagon has developed contingency plans for possible limited ground raids inside Iran, involving Special Operations forces and some conventional infantry units.

🇺🇸The Pentagon has put together contingency plans for possible limited ground raids inside Iran. These would allegedly involve Special Operations forces and some conventional infantry units, not a "full invasion." Like how this is not a "full-blown war" Source: U.S. Defense News

55,129 views27 rt111 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,307,211 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Pepe Escobar, citing Pentagon insiders, warns of heavy losses and 'body bags' if a ground operation in Iran proceeds.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 GROUND INVASION OF IRAN = MASS CASUALTIES EXPECTED Pepe Escobar says Pentagon insiders are warning of heavy losses and “body bags” if a ground operation goes ahead. The talk is shifting from “easy victory” to “this could get very bloody, very fast.” @realpepeescobar https://t.co/ucWqbVeK5Z

48,853 views8 rt42 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RealAlexJonesverified4,497,914 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

President Trump publicly threatened to wipe out Iran's 'whole civilization,' and Israel is bombing Kharg Island ahead of a US ground invasion.

EMERGENCY TUESDAY BROADCAST: President Trump Uses The Legal Definition Of Genocide In His Public Threat To Wipe Out Iran's "Whole Civilization!" Meanwhile, Israel Is Bombing Kharg Island Ahead Of US Ground Invasion! PLUS, US Ambassador Mike Waltz BOOED As He Mentions "Trump's Peacemaking!" Top Russian Military Expert Victor Bout Joins Alex Jones To Warn That Trump Is 1 Inch From Crossing A Red Lin...

30,664 views21 rt85 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,307,211 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Pepe Escobar, citing military insiders, compares a ground invasion of Iran to failed operations like the Bay of Pigs, expecting heavy losses.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 A GROUND INVASION OF IRAN COULD TURN INTO A DISASTER Pepe Escobar says military insiders are already comparing it to failed operations like the Bay of Pigs. Heavy losses are expected if it moves forward. Going boots-on-the-ground in Iran is looking less like a quick victory and more like a potential catastrophe. @realpepeescobar

53,964 views4 rt18 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MarioNawfalverified3,307,211 flwQ:4/5analysisbearish

Pepe Escobar states that Iran prepared for a land invasion years ago, placing defenses in regions like Khuzestan where invasions are most likely.

🚨🇮🇷 IRAN PREPARED FOR A LAND INVASION YEARS AGO Pepe Escobar, Brazilian journalist and geopolitical analyst, says defenses are placed where invasions are most likely. He says regions like Khuzestan are fortified because they’ve been invasion routes before. @RealPepeEscobar https://t.co/YDYaatRxAO

61,801 views5 rt28 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@realnikohouseverified95,437 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish

The user claims the US has started its ground invasion in Iran, and it has been a miserable failure thus far.

The US has started its ground invasion in Iran…and it’s been a miserable failure thus far. https://t.co/AwlKJRVPhh

2,240 views12 rt35 likesER:0.0029RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Sinner2112385 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The user suggests that Trump risks uniting a fractured Iran, making any ground invasion more difficult, if he takes action.

@RobertJMolnar Trump has put himself in a really ackward position of if he does nothing he looks pathetic and weak, and if he does something he risks uniting a fractured Iran making any ground invasion much more difficult

10,332 views0 rt68 likesER:0.8000RR:121.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@LonelyPartriot2 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user states that a leader chose to cede power in the region to Iran rather than conduct a massive ground invasion or commit war crimes.

@DrEliDavid Yeah, he chose ceding power in the region to Iran rather than doing a massive ground invasion or committing war crimes upon the population to force submission.

1,668 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:834.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (5)

KOL@destapandolose1208,601 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has registered for military service, and over 14 million Iranians have signed up to be called to fight.

El presidente de Irán, médico Masoud Pezeshkian, se ha inscrito en el servicio militar. Dice: Más de 14 millones de iraníes ya se han inscrito en la plataforma y están dispuestos a ser llamados a filas en caso de invasión.🎯 https://t.co/o8EBtthY0I

1,571 views88 rt180 likesER:0.0093RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@A_K_Mandhanverified68,992 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

President Trump stated that the entire country of Iran could be taken out in one night, possibly tomorrow night.

🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE 🚨 🚨NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨 🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: "The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night." @GROK is ground invasion loading ? https://t.co/cDwttuF01t

685 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IRanMediacoverified110,188 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

14 million Iranians have reportedly volunteered to defend their homeland, indicating a massive surge in citizens stepping forward.

BREAKING: 14 MILLION Iranians stand ready to defend their homeland! Iran, with a population of 90 million, reports a massive surge in volunteers—14 million citizens are stepping forward to defend their country against a potential US invasion.

37,437 views123 rt939 likesER:0.0308RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@MonitorX99800verified146,722 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has registered for the Jan Fada campaign, and 14 million citizens have registered to defend the country.

🇮🇷⚡️– Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian has registered himself in Jan Fada campaign to sacrifice his life fighting for Iran if necessary. 14 millions so far have registered across the country to defend against a possible ground invasion from the U.S.

18,170 views59 rt520 likesER:0.0116RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@cmcartman5 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user states that nuking Iran is not necessary and accuses another user of fearmongering.

@Alonso_GD Reminder. No one's nuking Iran. It's not necessary. But you're sure out here fearmongering for being a Brit that has no business telling America's what to do. Go deal with your own invasion.

1,607 views0 rt1 likesER:0.2000RR:321.4Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@Jessica723519181,741 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The Pentagon is preparing for a potential ground invasion of Iran, and U.S. forces have struck dozens of military sites on Iran's Kharg Island overnight.

Pentagon Prepares for Potential Ground Invasion of Iran: U.S. forces struck dozens of military sites on Iran's Kharg Island overnight. The targets included bunkers, ammunition storage facilities, a radar station, and other military infrastructure such as naval mine and

35 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@000000O96verified2,493 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish

The user believes that a deal will never happen and that the current situation is a ploy to lower oil prices and position US ground troops for an invasion.

@FromKulak There will never be a deal like this. This is just to lower oil prices and allowed US to get ground troops into position for invasion. Iran always trusts zios and gets burned at this point they deserve to lose. Pains me to say it but this ceasefire is a big W for Trump.

102 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0084RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Marc_Kenyonverified2,040 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The user states that legal control of the Strait of Hormuz is shared between Iran and Oman under international law, according to Chat GPT.

@ChrisMurphyCT Not sure this is really much different than before: According to Chat GPT: Before the recent U.S. invasion/conflict: Legal control: Shared between Iran and Oman under international law Practical control: Iran had the upper hand geographically and militarily The U.S. and allies acted as a counterbalance to ensure free passage

116 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0005RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@hu7046571761929234 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The user states that the Strait of Hormuz is primarily under the jurisdiction of Iran and Oman, and Trump would need a full-scale, million-soldier invasion to change this.

@duediligenceguy The Strait of Hormuz is primarily under the territorial jurisdiction of Iran and Oman. Trump will need a full scale, million soldier boots on the ground invasion to change this.

45 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@nope__nope__ugh14 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

The user states that Shahed drones are cheap, and Iran has a population eight times larger, making a ground invasion without help risky.

@Kirkland856404 @Noahpinion Shahed drones are cheap and it doesn’t take much to blow up an oil tanker. They’d be crazy to launch a ground invasion without our help… Iran has like 8x their population.

19 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.4Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@crown_mystic178 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user claims Trump's ground invasion of Iran failed, leading to capitulation.

Trumps ground invasion of Iran failed and now he is capitulating because of it

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@sethyxis204 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user believes Iran will not trust them and that a full-on invasion or nuke would not guarantee victory but risk major disasters.

@Megatron_ron Iran won't trust them But they already have tried everything short of a full on invasion or a nuke None of which will guarantee them a Victory but rather risk major disasters

180 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@john_meaut390 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user believes Trump agreed to something for financial gain, which will give Iran more time to prepare for a ground invasion.

@GideonSbre @CarlHigbie Trump just agreed to it bc he & his family & friends are gonna make monster money on the market from it. But it will give Iran more time to prepare for the ground invasion

12 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FireKnight_750295 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user questions the feasibility of the US building up an invasion force in two weeks without Iran reacting.

@snackvampire @ripplebrain @rosendo_joe Do you think the US will just freely build up an invasion force in 2 weeks right on the other side of the Persian gulf while Iran is watching and doing nothing because of a ceasefire ? That would be the most transparent BS ruse conceived ever.

71 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0034RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Eispan116 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user argues that if the US cannot take the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, it cannot take Greenland without a fight from Europe.

@jessicanolanova @disclosetv It would be much easier to take the Strait of Hormuz, yet MAGAmerica cannot take it from Iran. You think America can take Greenland without Europe giving out a fight. For sure its allies will come to its aid in a heartbeat. The Danes did prepare for an invasion last time.

77 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (9)

RETAIL@THX1138_IB3116 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The user suggests that refusing to help the US could lead to a strained NATO alliance and a prolonged Iran war, while joining could lead to a prolonged war.

@MarioNawfal They are on a catch-22 of their own making. Refuse to help US and face the consequences ( a strained NATO alliance… a prolonged Iran war/gridlock) Or, join the US/Israel war, and face a prolonged war/invasion. Since they forced the Ukrainian war, they are cornered.

195 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0086RR:1.7Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@besimisticverified401 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user expresses distrust in the current situation, suggesting it might be a ploy to build up further forces.

@Geiger_Capital @HouseCracka Something is off. Of course Iran would win this retarded war, but this is a pathetic attempt to save face. I don’t trust it. Could this just be a ploy to build up further troops and pivot to another invasion strategy? Did Iran let them know they now have nukes? Something’s off.

97 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ImadBasayev2 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user recounts historical events where the US supported Saddam's invasion of Iran in 1980 and shot down an Iranian plane.

@higgins31411 @yashar The US supported and armed Saddam's invasion of Iran in 1980 which killed 500,000 Iranians, many of whom were subject to chemical weapons given by the US. The US shot down an Iranian passenger jet over the Gulf in 1988 killing 290 innocent people. You want to cry about chants?

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@SOFNewsUpdateverified186 flwQ:2/5newsneutral

The tweet provides a link to catch up on the latest news about the Iran War.

Catch up on the latest news about the Iran War. https://t.co/cdUwdvdWMu

144 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Hwils4418 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user believes that oil prices are at an all-time high, allowing Iran to sell its oil at high prices.

@billgensler @joshem27 @KobeissiLetter Don’t need to hold it up forever they held for a few weeks and already oil is an at an all time high and irans able to sell their oil at high prices they’ve exhausted us anti-missile systems already and a ground invasion of Iran would be suicidal Iran hold the card

22 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Linklevosstwinsverified6,115 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user states that a person has been on camera for 30 years advocating for bombing Iran.

@17951b9804a0485 @JordanSchachtel He’s on camera for the past 30 years saying we need to bomb the hell out of out of Iran. No new wars. I have zero issues with bombing the fuck out of bad actors wherever they may be. But Trump and I are on the same page when it comes to not having any large ground invasion and occupational forces. I have zero issues with special forces operations anywhere on t...

11 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Molly85224872verified888 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral

The user claims that most Israelis support the war on Iran, the invasion of Lebanon, the slaughter in Gaza, and the colonization of the West Bank.

@zakmalamed @jbarro @thejadge @Timodc Most Israelis are behind the war on Iran, the invasion of Lebanon, the slaughter in Gaza, the colonisation of the West Bank…

31 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@darkpolitricks3,178 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

Really? Iran, the USA, and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire that will extend to Israels illegal invasion of Lebanon? I find it hard to bekievr but hope peace is delivered before any nuke are. #Trump #Iran #Israel #Lebanon #Peace

44 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@HaroldCamp13441 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

@HQNewsNow Fuck all of these peg head Democrats, they used one word against Iran.. DON'T!!! Everyone Remember That? Democrats are weak and wouldn't protect our country, they allowed an invasion of over 13 million illegals invade our country

29 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0023RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 620,990.26 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0015	0	+$751,924.09
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9985	0	+$290,215.46
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9985	620,990.26	+$235,234.21
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0015	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9985	138,947.76	+$50,499.21
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9985	175,760.61	+$48,041.97
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9985	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9985	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9985	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9985	0	+$35,796.86