Trade Report :

A $161,873 Bet Is 99.7% Sure US Forces Will Enter Iran

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

Montaigne (0x583582716cc49794789cacdf7aeffbdbd0b79404)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$161,872.92

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.997

Entry Price

2026-04-07 05:46:21 ET

Time

Montaigne placed $161,872.92 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.997 (market gives 99.7% probability). Total market volume $121,591,167.786, 24h volume $42,897,536.59, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.997

Yes odds at 0.997, market gives 99.7% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.7%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $161,872.92 becomes $162,359.92 (profit $487)
If wrong, loses $161,873

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale is so sure US forces are already in Iran, they just bet $161,873 for a measly $487 payout on a 99.7% 'Yes' market. Talk about picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Twitter's screaming CSAR operations, boots on the ground. Looks like a done deal, right? The real smart money, those OG whales, already banked serious PnL buying 'Yes' at $0.54-$0.78. This latecomer is just trying to scrape a 0.30% yield, essentially an overnight parking fee for $161k.

But here’s the rub: resolution rules. "Military personnel" vs. "intelligence operatives." The "fog of war" isn't just a metaphor; it's a bureaucratic black hole. If the Pentagon denies, or classifies those heroes as Title 50 intel assets, this whale’s $161,873 isn't just at risk – it's toast.

This isn't yield harvesting. It's risking your entire bankroll on the precise wording of a government press release. An average to poor trade, betting a fortune on a technicality.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$121,591,167.786

24h Volume

$42,897,536.59

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel, including special operations, deliberately and physically enter Iran's land territory for operational purposes by the deadline. It resolves "No" if this specific event does not happen, excluding entries by sea, air, intelligence operatives, contractors, or for diplomatic reasons.

Timeline

The market considers events occurring at any point up to the specific deadline date and time, which is listed in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among reliable news reports and information sources.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding is that any US personnel entering Iran counts, but only active military personnel deliberately entering Iran's land for operational purposes qualify, excluding accidental entry, sea/air entry, or non-military roles.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 38

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

Forget the air sirens. US Special Forces are *in* Iran. Dehdasht: clashing with IRGC, rescuing an F-15 pilot. Isfahan: C-130s and Black Hawks trashed after a failed rescue. This isn't a "maybe," it's a "boots on the ground" reality.

Trump: "going well." Iran: "failure," parading wreckage. Pure "fog of war."

The catch? Market resolution. Does "entering" mean a conventional invasion, or do covert CSAR missions count? Whales buying "YES" are eyeing the Dehdasht intel. But if your oracle demands a Pentagon parade, you're buying a lottery ticket. Watch CENTCOM, not Iranian Parliament selfies.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@NicholasLissackverified88,395 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

Locals in Dehdasht are blocking IRGC and Basij reinforcements, while IRGC units are clashing with US special forces rescuing a downed F-15 pilot north of town.

In Dehdasht tonight, locals have flooded the streets, blocking IRGC and Basij reinforcements. North of town, IRGC units are clashing with US special forces rescuing the downed F-15 pilot. This is going badly for the regime. Free Iran. https://t.co/mVPTtLyHZz

42,172 views546 rt2,002 likesER:0.1462RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@war_noirverified271,548 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iranian Armed Forces (IRGC) reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 “Reaper” MALE UCAV, possibly using a domestic “Qaem-118” Short-Range Surface-To-Air missile.

#Iran / #USA / #Israel 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱: Iranian Armed Forces (#IRGC) reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 “Reaper” MALE UCAV. IRGC seemingly used a possible domestic “Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) Short-Range Surface-To-Air Missile to target the UAV. https://t.co/ZN64KHLMYh

3,719 views9 rt64 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,647,363 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

President Donald Trump claims the US war on Iran is going well and that Washington's forces could “take out” the whole country in a single night, possibly tomorrow night.

BREAKING: President Donald Trump claims the US’s war on Iran is going well and that Washington's forces could “take out” the whole country in a single night “and that night might be tomorrow night.” 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/WKP3P9Sc5P https://t.co/6B3nEkK6IC

100,203 views336 rt1,232 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,515,941 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

IRGC spokesperson stated that Iran's forces destroyed several US aircraft during a rescue mission for a downed pilot in Isfahan, calling the operation 'a failure'.

IRGC spokesperson said Iran's forces destroyed several US aircraft during a rescue mission for a downed pilot in Isfahan, calling the operation 'a failure' after US officials said both airmen were recovered. https://t.co/tqNp7cIdUL

191,878 views719 rt3,202 likesER:0.0070RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,647,363 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for US military operations in the Middle East and is leading the attacks on Iran, said its forces have attacked more than 13,000 Iranian targets. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/dwWzI0s5p1 https://t.co/4w2TGC1oIB

15,720 views2 rt26 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Currentreport1verified199,148 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Kuwait reports Iran hit two power and water desalination plants overnight, causing major damage, while Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles.

BREAKING: Kuwait says Iran hit 2 power and water desalination plants overnight, causing major damage. Iran claims US forces used Kuwait as a launch site for ATACMS missiles. https://t.co/m4A3MwZeDw

30,770 views361 rt1,840 likesER:0.0455RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,647,363 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted a picture purporting to show the wreckage of a US aircraft shot down by Iranian forces.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has posted a picture on X purporting to show the wreckage of a US aircraft shot down by Iranian forces. 🔴LIVE updates: https://t.co/wHvDwnKK2Y https://t.co/PniGfXjncB

57,665 views283 rt1,339 likesER:0.0007RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IRANinMumbai12,972 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

The Khatam al-Anbiya HQ stated that during a failed US rescue attempt on April 5, Iranian armed forces struck two C-130s and two Black Hawks, forcing emergency landings.

Official statement by the Khatam al-Anbiya HQ: During a failed US rescue attempt, enemy aircraft entered Iran early April 5. Armed forces struck 2 C-130s & 2 Black Hawks, forcing emergency landings in southern Isfahan. #Iran #Isfahan #US #War https://t.co/vJhonRdjmM

9,663 views59 rt278 likesER:0.1124RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BRICSinfoverified2,017,982 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Footage shows wreckage of US Black Hawk helicopters and C-130 military transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing Iran. https://t.co/uJv89NVfbj

3,896,405 views3,911 rt30,354 likesER:0.0538RR:1.9Source: X/Twitter

KOL@FalconUpdatesHQverified149,915 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

US and Israeli Air Forces struck an Iranian munitions facility near Bushehr, southwestern Iran, dangerously close to Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

BREAKING 🚨 ☢️ 🤯 US & Israeli Air Forces struck an Iranian munitions facility near Bushehr, southwestern Iran 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The strike landed dangerously close to Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the country’s only operational reactor https://t.co/fvmzg2tr5i

7,285 views24 rt145 likesER:0.0042RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (5)

KOL@AJENewsverified2,515,941 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, according to the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

BREAKING: Iran targeted US forces relocated on Kuwait’s Bubiyan island, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Ebrahim Zolfaghari said in a video statement shared by state media. https://t.co/GLwEkjLJFX

86,573 views479 rt2,118 likesER:0.0046RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AlArabiya_Eng875,575 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Ukrainian intelligence claims Russian satellites have surveyed military facilities in the Middle East to help Iran strike US forces and other targets.

Russian satellites have made dozens of detailed imagery surveys of military facilities and critical sites across the Middle East to help Iran strike US forces and other targets, according to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment. https://t.co/O0CThpy5Sz

1,113 views2 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,515,941 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran says it struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces relocated to Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/YDd9GbPf1S

29,536 views82 rt564 likesER:0.0009RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,515,941 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran says it struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island.

BREAKING: Iran says struck US forces on Kuwait's Bubiyan island 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/W1v1tjHVyi https://t.co/Zeh8DcVlRF

31,354 views183 rt1,009 likesER:0.0019RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,533,392 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

Iran and its proxies have conducted numerous attacks on US forces/interests since 1945, including the 1983 Beirut bombings and 1996 Khobar Towers.

@DGPsalm3 @mandyarthur Iran and its proxies have conducted numerous attacks on US forces/interests since 1945, including the 1983 Beirut bombings (300+ US deaths), 1996 Khobar Towers (19 US deaths), and 600+ US troop deaths in Iraq (2003-2011 via EFPs/IEDs). No exact total, but hundreds of incidents across decades. Since Oct 2023: over 200 attacks on US bases in Iraq/Syria/Jordan by Iran-backed g...

51 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@MCBNNEWSSverified169 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

#BREAKING Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/SIpdkhpbxC

74 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0059RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@YahyaHaru9564634 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran. https://t.co/ib1Cj2sM1L

12 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0294RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@q94YaHZZfZcuzMAverified218 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian special forces are shown standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after a failed rescue attempt for an American pilot in Iran.

@MarioNawfal Iranian special forces aurafarm while standing over destroyed US helicopters and aircraft after failed rescue attempt for American pilot in Iran https://t.co/mU9sILOzkx

730 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:3.4Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@realDreamerfxverified2,360 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

US and Israeli forces launched over 50 airstrikes on Iran, targeting Tehran, Shiraz, and a petrochemical plant, with the UAE extending airspace closure.

⚡ BREAKING | April 7, 2026 MAJOR ESCALATION: US and Israeli forces launch over 50 airstrikes on Iran, targeting Tehran, Shiraz, and a petrochemical plant. UAE extends airspace closure amid regional tensions. → Gold: SURGING on safe-haven demand. Price spiking above $4,700. → DXY & Yields: US Dollar volatile, Treasury yields under pressure. → Watch: Key resistance at $4,750. Any breach targets $4...

69 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@IRANinMumbai12,972 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iranian forces completed encirclement, leading the enemy to launch heavy strikes on its own downed aircraft, equipment, and personnel to avoid humiliation.

After Iranian forces completed the encirclement, the enemy, seeking to avoid humiliation, launched heavy strikes on its own downed #aircraft, equipment, and personnel. #Iran #US #War

1,117 views3 rt28 likesER:0.0068RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@guanchewarriorverified1,011 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The user claims US-Israeli forces are destroying synagogues in Iran, which has the largest Jewish community in the Middle East.

@caitoz US-israeli forces are destroying synagogues in Iran. Iran has the largest Jewish community in the Middle East. https://t.co/Esu6C0J4KQ

20 views1 rt1 likesER:0.0208RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@maxYverstappan34 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user suggests Pakistan, specifically Balochistan, could be an easier way to invade Iran for US ground forces, as Iraq is not reliable.

@Nisarkolac52422 US cannot use Iraq to land Ground forces as they are not reliable. But Sharif can lend Balochis land for cancelling Loan Repayments. So Pakistan is the easiest way to Invade Iran. It's going to happen soon.

24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@whiskeyboystve569 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user states that UK airfields are being used by US forces to support the conflict in Iran.

@0hour1 Factually incorrect, UK airfields are being used by US forces to support the conflict in Iran.

7 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@maxYverstappan34 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user suggests selling Balochistan to land US special forces to invade Iran and supply its minerals to a Trump-owned company.

@Nisarkolac52422 @M_INFO313 Only way you can do that is Selling Balochistan to land US special forces to invade Iran. Also supply Baloch Precious Minerals to Trump owned Company. https://t.co/AYZ9Yh3Sn1

30 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DeonOpperman1673 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user predicts the US will build up forces and launch a major assault on Iran, and Iran needs to threaten nuclear retaliation.

@thatdayin1992 100% correct. The US will build up its forces and weapons, and launch a major assault on Iran. Iran needs make it clear to Israel and the US: We have nukes aimed at Tel Aviv and Washington. In response to any unprovoked attack on Iran we will launch. We will all die together.

75 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (4)

RETAIL@Kian__xauusdverified58 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Ukrainian intelligence claims Russia's "Skynet" system is secretly assisting Iran by helping it attack US forces and other targets.

🚨Ukrainian intelligence claims that Russia's "Skynet" system is secretly assisting Iran. #Russia #satellite It alleges that Russia is helping Iran attack US forces and other targets, and that it has also discovered a powerful collaboration between Russian and Iranian hackers on the cyber front. #Iranianhackers #Iranian #USA What are your thoughts on this conflict? What is the future trend for gol...

22 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0172RR:0.4Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@IRANinMumbai12,972 flwQ:3/5analysisneutral

The user argues that comparing the conflict involving Iran to past wars like Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam is a false equivalence because those involved massive conventional invasions and occupations.

Comparing the conflict involving #Iran to the wars in #Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam is a false equivalence. In those past conflicts, massive conventional forces invaded & occupied sovereign territory. Iran presents a fundamentally different reality. #US #War https://t.co/zQUubABqYF

1,647 views19 rt82 likesER:0.0356RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@BillieBillion1verified2,159 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The user speculates about a scenario where Israel strikes Iran, leading to Iranian retaliation and forcing Trump to continue military action.

Is anyone considering the outcome where Trump postpones the deadline, Israel carries out the strikes on the power plants and bridges with Iran retaliating which effectively forces Trump to continue the escalation which was his plan all along? Then the people of the US can be angry at Israel for escalating, Trump can motivate future war crimes by Irans retaliation that will be horrible for the Gul...

93 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DXQ77711 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral

@cirnosad Your beloved Japan is also bending over backwards trying to please the US and their Jewish masters as they have for the past 50 years. Maybe if Japan were to stop hosting Jewish forces that surround China, we’d be more comfortable about helping Iran directly.

36 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0909RR:3.3Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0020	0.0025	0	+$667,374.11
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9975	800,779.93	+$290,615.85
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9975	620,990.26	+$234,613.22
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0025	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9975	130,947.76	+$50,324.14
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9975	175,760.61	+$47,866.21
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9975	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9975	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9975	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9975	0	+$35,796.86