Trade Report :

A $121,119 Bet Says YES to US Forces Entering Iran by 2025

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

thegreengem (0xdcd669c506a938bae9269a84b8bd2bdb220484cd) · @bbk6566

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$121,118.69

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.991

Entry Price

2026-04-07 19:46:15 ET

Time

thegreengem placed $121,118.69 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.991 (market gives 99.1% probability). Total market volume $167,137,496.424, 24h volume $57,811,296.094, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.991

Yes odds at 0.991, market gives 99.1% chance

0.9%

Yes

99.2%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $121,118.69 becomes $122,218.69 (profit $1,100)
If wrong, loses $121,119

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

This whale isn't predicting the future; they're betting the "US forces enter Iran" market has *already resolved*. They're risking a staggering $121,119 for a measly $1,100 profit – an annualized 100%+ yield if the oracle just pays out, but a paltry 0.9% absolute return.

They're trying to arbitrage the bureaucratic lag, tailgating earlier "Yes" whales who bought at $0.61, now swimming in profit at $0.99.

But here's the razor's edge: "Military special operation forces" qualify; "intelligence operatives" do not. The CIA Director confirmed a "ground rescue." Was it Title 10 military personnel or Title 50 spooks? That 0.9% "No" isn't a glitch; it's the market screaming, "Is it Delta Force or a guy with a fake mustache?"

A decent yield if it hits, but one wrong word from the oracle turns $1,100 into a $121,119 crater. Talk about picking up pennies in front of a bureaucratic steamroller.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$167,137,496.424

24h Volume

$57,811,296.094

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves to "Yes" if active US military personnel, including special operations forces, deliberately enter Iran's terrestrial territory for operational purposes by the specified date. It resolves to "No" if such an entry does not occur, or if the entry is by intelligence operatives, contractors, advisors, for diplomatic reasons, or is accidental, or via maritime or aerial territory.

Timeline

The market's outcome depends on events happening by the listed date, specified in Eastern Time (ET).

Source

The final outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Common Mistakes

People might mistakenly believe that intelligence operatives, military contractors, or personnel entering for diplomatic reasons would qualify, or that entry into Iran's airspace or waters would count. Another common misunderstanding could be thinking accidental entry, like a pilot being shot down, would qualify.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US forces Iran, Iran invasion

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran"? The market's a hot mess. Headlines scream "ceasefire," but US Tier 1 Special Forces *already* hit Iranian soil. CIA Director Ratcliffe confirmed a "historic rescue" of F-15 pilots, even destroying a C-130 inside Iran. This isn't speculation; it's confirmed "boots on the ground" reality.

Iran, of course, claims victory, dictating a 2-week ceasefire with Hormuz control. Retail's buying "No," seeing a diplomatic win. But here's the bait-and-switch: if "enter Iran" includes *any* ground operation—rescue, covert raid, whatever—then "Yes" is an arbitrage goldmine. The market's blind.

Whales are scrutinizing resolution rules. Is a "Black Hawk Down"-style extraction enough? Or do we need a full-blown Desert Storm? If it's the former, the ceasefire is a headfake; buy "Yes" now. If it's only a conventional invasion, the 2-week pause nukes "Yes" odds. Read the damn fine print, or get played.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@remarksverified116,914 flwQ:5/5newsbullish

US special forces carried out a ground mission in Iran to rescue the second F-15 pilot.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US special forces carried out a ground mission in Iran to rescue the second F-15 pilot.

27,393 views58 rt1,152 likesER:0.0198RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,287 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

Remains of a USAF M/HC-130 Hercules transport aircraft were destroyed by US forces before departing their forward base in Iran after successfully recovering a downed F-15 aircrew.

Remains of the USAF M/HC-130 Hercules transport aircraft destroyed by US forces before departing their forward base in Iran, used successfully to recover the downed F-15 aircrew. The aircraft had reportedly become stuck in the soft ground and were blown up to avoid capture. https://t.co/bSzjIsRx3h

1,383,135 views1,210 rt7,565 likesER:0.0215RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

KOL@BowesChayverified275,467 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

Video shows the landing site in Iran where US forces extracted their downed pilot, with several aircraft lost and reportedly destroyed by the US to prevent capture.

Video from the landing site in Iran where US forces extracted their downed pilot Several aircraft were lost during the operation. The US claims they destroyed them themselves to prevent their capture The cost of the destroyed equipment is at least 300 million dollars https://t.co/wiqgRMT3OL

27,116 views235 rt1,137 likesER:0.0212RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,287 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

US/Israeli forces are bombing Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, Iran, with smoke and flames visible from the airfield.

US/Israeli forces are bombing Mehrabad Airport in Iran’s capital, Tehran, again tonight, with pillars of smoke and flame rising from the airfield. https://t.co/8Y0HRjf1Ra

101,296 views224 rt1,631 likesER:0.0041RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,287 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

US/Israeli forces bombed Iran's Arak aluminum company, the country's largest aluminum producer, a few moments ago.

US/Israeli forces bombed Iran's Arak aluminum company, the country's largest producer of aluminum, a few moments ago. https://t.co/2bTkShQ8BW

481,685 views1,481 rt7,184 likesER:0.0249RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter

KOL@RNCResearchverified693,446 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

CIA Director John Ratcliffe commented on the historic rescue of two American airmen from Iran, emphasizing the US Armed Forces' tradition of leaving no one behind.

.@CIADirector John Ratcliffe on the historic rescue of two American airmen from Iran: "Because it is the unique tradition of the U.S. Armed Forces that we leave no man or woman behind, this was a no-fail mission. That was the spirit in which the President put us to work." https://t.co/pBhuWhtNVD

5,105 views21 rt129 likesER:0.0008RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@war_noirverified271,273 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iranian Armed Forces reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 'Reaper' drone over Qeshm Island, possibly using a domestic 'Qaem-118' missile.

#Iran / #USA / #Israel 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱: Iranian Armed Forces (#IRGC) reportedly shot down a US MQ-9 “Reaper” MALE UCAV over #Qeshm Island. IRGC seemingly used a possible domestic “Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) Short-Range Surface-To-Air Missile. https://t.co/cLvqvHWwzd

13,021 views33 rt224 likesER:0.0033RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AmirJ3193160 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran officially confirmed that an American operation in Isfahan was aimed at storming a nuclear facility, which Iran claims to have thwarted.

Iran officially confirm, American Isfahan operation was aimed at storming Nuclear facility. Iran was alert & aware, waiting for the ambush. After the failure, downing of crafts & ambush, US abandoned mission, focusing on rescuing the trapped forces under heavy bombardment.

137 views2 rt6 likesER:0.2875RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

KOL@ResisttheMSverified463,650 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

CENTCOM released new footage of the US military striking Iranian targets, stating that US forces are relentlessly striking military targets inside Iran.

WATCH: CENTCOM releases new footage of the US military striking Iranian targets. "Iranian military capabilities continue to decline as U.S. forces relentlessly strike military targets inside Iran." https://t.co/IHdZGGLQSj

4,726 views5 rt49 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@17QStormverified57,588 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Israel unleashed strikes on Iran's rail systems and bridges, while US forces struck Kharg Island.

ISRAEL JUST UNLEASHED DEVASTATING STRIKES ON IRAN’S RAIL SYSTEMS AND BRIDGES ACROSS THE COUNTRY — AS US FORCES HAMMER KHARG ISLAND INTO OBLIVION! Trump WASN’T BLUFFING — not even for a second! Follow @17QStorm for more intel drops! https://t.co/75ckAgPbWL

9,031 views120 rt298 likesER:0.0469RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (3)

KOL@Osinttechnicalverified1,476,287 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Iran, via Fars, confirms agreement to a ceasefire and states the US accepted its 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz.

Iran confirms that it has agreed to the ceasefire agreement-Fars Iran adds that the US accepted its 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations, including Iranian control of Hormuz, full compensation for war damages, and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

336,212 views471 rt2,569 likesER:0.0081RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@grokverified8,528,021 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran announced conditional safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks, coordinated with their armed forces.

@RealStateGroker Yes, conditionally. Iran just announced safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks, coordinated with their armed forces (with some technical limits). This follows today's US-Iran ceasefire agreement and Trump's pause on strikes. Normal full traffic hasn't resumed yet, but it's no longer fully blocked.

32 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@mchancecnn73,856 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's plan to end the war includes demands for regulating the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and withdrawing US military forces from the region.

Iran’s plan to end the war, includes demand to regulate Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the withdrawal of US military forces from bases in region. Negotiations to finalise to start in Islamabad on Friday, according to Iran. #CNN

319 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (4)

RETAIL@jhaboushverified14,964 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Officials state that all US forces involved in an operation have safely left Iranian airspace.

All US forces involved in the operation have safely left Iranian airspace, per officials

687 views2 rt3 likesER:0.0029RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Conflictory_Xverified400 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Israel is striking Iran's railway infrastructure, while US forces are striking defensive sites on Kharg Island, with airstrikes continuing in multiple parts of Iran.

🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel Strikes Iran’s Railway Infrastructure Israel targets railway lines and bridges across Iran. US forces strike defensive sites on Kharg Island. Airstrikes continue in multiple parts of the country. https://t.co/7kXlZeQJbN

471 views1 rt2 likesER:0.0550RR:1.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@thuhkangverified17,155 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Polymarket shows an 80% probability of a US ground invasion of Iran by the end of the month, according to CNBC.

POLYMARKET HAS THE PROBABLITY OF A US GROUND INVASION OF IRAN BY THE END OF THIS MONTH AT 80% - CNBC

3,342 views3 rt36 likesER:0.0056RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@MikeConservati21,436 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The author suggests a hypothetical agreement with Iran would include US Special Forces having unfettered access to remove all enriched uranium from Iranian territory.

@Matt_Pinner 100% with one caveat. The agreement with Iran includes allowing the US Special Forces unfettered access to any and ALL enriched uranium with the goal of removing all of it from Iranian territory. Any centrifuges that were not destroyed in the bombing to be also removed.

21 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@yasarullah720 flwQ:4/5newsbearish

Breaking news reports a US-Iran ceasefire, with Trump suspending US attacks and Tehran agreeing to a 2-week ceasefire, confirmed by Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Breaking US IRAN Ceasefire updates Trump suspends US attacks, Tehran agrees to 2-week ceasefire Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirms ceasefire deal Iran’s FM Araghchi says safe passage through Hormuz Strait possible for two weeks via coordination with forces https://t.co/GnzdVd9Eib

45 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Frebarbutiverified39 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's 10-point proposal includes controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian forces, ending war, and withdrawal of US combat forces.

Iran: 10-point proposal included controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases Iran: Talks with US do not mean end of war Iran: Will only accept war conclusion once details are finalised according to the 10-point plan Iran: 10-point proposal included lifting al...

31 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@ayo_platano4,206 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Iran reportedly gains security guarantees, sanctions lifted, continued uranium enrichment, financial asset release, Strait control, and US forces withdrawal, while America faces a humiliating outcome.

Iran gets security guarantees, sanctions lifted, can continue to enrich uranium, the release of financial assets abroad, control of the Strait, and withdrawal of US forces America gets a humiliating exit to a slowed and reverbed version of Los Del Río’s 1993 hit “Macarena”.

48 views0 rt4 likesER:0.0010RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@June4th5,857 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

Trump has threatened that 'A whole civilisation will die tonight' if his demands to Iran are not met, and Sina Toosi will explain what winning looks like for all parties.

Trump has threatened that “A whole civilisation will die tonight” if his demands to Iran are not met. Plus: Sina Toosi explains what winning would actually look like for Tehran, US and Israeli forces bomb a synagogue https://t.co/RcjUVaK0vd

14 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@A7_Mirza39,332 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks, coordinated with Iran's armed forces.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, announced that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks "through coordination with Iran's armed forces and considering technical limitations". #Iran #US https://t.co/PUMIVxpxr6

223 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Ashok2103346 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared victory, stating the US was forced to accept its 10-point plan, including Iranian control in Hormuz and acceptance of enrichment.

#TrumpsWars #IranWar‌ #Irán IRAN DECLARES VICTORY — Supreme National Security Council US ‘FORCED’ to accept TEHRAN’S 10-POINT PLAN KEY POINTS: — US agrees to IRANIAN CONTROL IN HORMUZ — accepts ENRICHMENT — lifts SANCTIONS — Pays COMPENSATION — US forces WITHDRAW

283 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.8Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Dug804Vaverified1,129 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared victory, stating the US was forced to accept its 10-point plan, including Iranian control in Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, and lifting sanctions.

IRAN DECLARES VICTORY — Supreme National Security Council US ‘FORCED’ to accept TEHRAN’S 10-POINT PLAN KEY POINTS: — US agrees to IRANIAN CONTROL IN HORMUZ — accepts ENRICHMENT — lifts SANCTIONS — Pays COMPENSATION — US forces WITHDRAW https://t.co/eiXZ4z4unY

8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@X_O_O_A_A4,303 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The Kobeissi Letter reports Iran's claim that the US has been forced to accept its 10-point plan, including uranium enrichment and compensation.

The Kobeissi Letter: "Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms:" "3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment" "8. Paying compensation to Iran" "9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region" https://t.co/vv8wCAfAUT

20 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@adeeteeyaa0 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

Iran's FM Araghchi stated that if US/Israel halt attacks, Iranian forces will cease defensive operations, and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible for two weeks.

Iran's FM Araghchi (on behalf of Supreme National Security Council): If US/Israel halt attacks, our forces will cease defensive operations. For 2 weeks, safe passage through Strait of Hormuz possible via coordination with Iranian Armed Forces. #Iran #Ceasefire #Hormuz #Pakistan https://t.co/KmXJnWrJWd

76 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@f_yakamuz344 flwQ:3/5newsbearish

The tweet lists terms including no future aggression, Iran maintaining control of Hormuz, acceptance of uranium enrichment, lifting sanctions, and withdrawal of US forces from the region.

@POTUS No future aggression Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz Acceptance of uranium enrichment Lifting of all sanctions Withdrawal of US forces from the region Payment of compensation to Iran End of war on all fronts Have you accepted these?!

25 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0099	0.0085	0	+$680,915.74
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9915	800,779.93	+$285,811.17
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9915	620,990.26	+$230,887.28
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0070	0.0085	0	+$58,641.17
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6421	0.9915	138,947.76	+$49,526.57
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9915	175,760.61	+$46,811.64
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9915	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9915	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9915	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9915	0	+$35,796.86