Trade Report :

US Forces Will Enter Iran: $1,179,962 Prediction on Polymarket

ARCHIVED - Historical analysis

Ox95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 (0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04)

PolyMarket : US forces enter Iran by..?

$1,179,961.76

Trade Amount

BUY Yes

Trade Side

0.998

Entry Price

2026-04-06 22:25:29 ET

Time

Ox95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 placed $1,179,961.76 BUY Yes on Polymarket, betting on "US forces enter Iran by..?" at odds 0.998 (market gives 99.8% probability). Total market volume $112,335,164.015, 24h volume $41,273,422.265, heat level: Very Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Yes at 0.998

Yes odds at 0.998, market gives 99.8% chance

0.4%

Yes

99.7%

Risk/reward ratio 0:1
If correct, $1,179,961.76 becomes $1,182,325.76 (profit $2,364)
If wrong, loses $1,179,962

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $1,179,962 on "US forces enter Iran" for a potential $2,364 profit. Yes, you read that right. A 0.0:1 risk/reward.

This isn't a geopolitical bet, folks; it’s a prayer to the oracle. The market's at 99.8% "Yes," screaming "done deal." Our whale isn't predicting; they're yield farming, hoping for a quick 36% annualized return if it resolves in 48 hours.

This is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Early whales, the real smart money, scooped up shares at $0.60, now swimming in $289K profits. This latecomer is providing exit liquidity, essentially betting $1.18M on Polymarket's resolution oracle not interpreting "physically enter" or "military personnel" like a deranged lawyer.

If a rescue mission was CIA, or if boots didn't *literally* touch dirt, goodbye $1.18M. An average to poor trade, risking a fortune on bureaucratic semantics for crumbs. Truly a modern-day Sisyphus pushing a boulder of cash. Oof.

Market Context: US forces enter Iran by..?Market Page →

Total Volume

$112,335,164.015

24h Volume

$41,273,422.265

Heat

Very Hot

End Date

Not specified

Created

2026-01-11

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

The market resolves "Yes" if active US military personnel deliberately step onto Iranian land for operational purposes by the listed date. Otherwise, it resolves "No" if this specific condition is not met.

Timeline

The event must occur by the specified date and time (Eastern Time) for the market to resolve "Yes". The rules do not specify an exact resolution date, only the deadline for the event itself.

Source

The outcome will be determined by a general agreement among multiple trustworthy news reports.

Special Cases

Not specified in the rules.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: US Iran, Iran invasion, US forces Iran

Relevant tweets: 36

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

"US forces enter Iran by..?" This isn't a prediction; it's a Schrödinger's invasion. US rescue ops are *already confirmed* inside Iran. A US aircraft was hit *over* Iran. If "enter" includes airspace or SOF, the "Yes" shares are grossly underpriced; the Rubicon might be crossed.

Rep. Pat Fallon isn't whispering: "Boots on the ground" are coming. Trump wants their oil, not a peace prize. Iran's striking US bases (373 injured!), rejecting ceasefires. The UK just grounded US strategic bombers. Losing allied staging grounds *pushes* towards ground ops, not away.

The "Doomsday Plane" is circling. This isn't a meme stock. Check your market's fine print. If "enter" is broad, "Yes" is a steal. If it's strict ground troops, "Yes" odds are still soaring. Whales are betting "Yes." Don't be the last to know.

KOL — High Relevance (1)

KOL@DD_Geopoliticsverified504,852 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

Rep. Pat Fallon, chair of the House Armed Services Military Personnel subcommittee, stated that US ground troops are coming to Iran.

NO OTHER WAY BUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND The chair of the House Armed Services Military Personnel subcommittee, Rep. Pat Fallon, says US ground troops are coming to Iran: "I just don't see any other way." His reasoning: "80% of Iranians hate this regime. Once that action is taken, people are gonna rise up and the IRGC is gonna melt away." That's word for word what they said about Iraq in 2003.

38,972 views235 rt953 likesER:0.0112RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@EricLDaughverified1,021,946 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish

The US surged over 150 aircraft, including bombers and fighters, and used 100 2,000-pound bombs during a rescue operation in Iran.

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: The CIA did not only spread FAKE NEWS inside Iran to confuse the regime while we rescued our guy The US SURGED 150+ aircraft, 4 B-1 bombers, 64 fighters, and 100 2,000 pound BOMBS That's how America does it to save our heroes! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/8zsIdlwInj

142,083 views224 rt2,137 likesER:0.0065RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Iran_TVvverified20,309 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran has placed all its air defense systems on full alert following threats made by the US for tonight.

🚨 BREAKING Following threats made by the US for tonight, Iran has placed all its air defense systems on full alert. https://t.co/iD6DvzugJN

44,901 views41 rt669 likesER:0.0733RR:2.2Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJENewsverified2,515,134 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

One US aircraft was hit over Iran, and its crew suffered minor injuries, according to the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs.

BREAKING: One aircraft hit over Iran, crew suffered minor injuries and are in good condition, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs said. https://t.co/N44GvDr5jU

88,355 views264 rt852 likesER:0.0024RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@IranMilittaryverified38,961 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Iran launched a missile attack on the US Victoria military base near Baghdad airport, causing ongoing fires.

Iran shattered the pride of a superpower! Iran launched a missile attack on the US Victoria military base near Baghdad airport! The fire is still wreaking havoc...! https://t.co/6HLK4xLaEz

4,823 views93 rt301 likesER:0.0555RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@AJEnglishverified9,645,813 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

At least 15 Americans were injured in an Iranian drone strike on the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait overnight.

BREAKING: At least “15 Americans” were injured in an Iranian drone strike on the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait overnight, reports US media, citing two US officials. 🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/NKfPW7lYCm https://t.co/HY6I4LfnVt

35,863 views230 rt797 likesER:0.0006RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@atruparverified1,082,246 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish

Trump stated he would like to take Iran's oil.

Q: You said today you would like to take Iran's oil, but Americans want US forces home-- TRUMP: Correct. I'm a businessman first. With Venezuela, the war was over in about 45 minutes. We've taken hundreds of millions of barrels. To the winner belong the spoils. Why don't we use it?

141,294 views223 rt644 likesER:0.0047RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@Rephughblackwel17,101 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

France and a coalition of other NATO members are reportedly aligning themselves with Iran against the US.

WAR: France and a coalition of other NATO members are reportedly aligning themselves with Iran against the US. This is an unprecedented betrayal. I’ve been against leaving NATO, but I don’t think we have a choice now. They are our enemies… https://t.co/B0vqai7JrC

51,732 views550 rt1,849 likesER:0.7514RR:3.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@WarMonitor3verified1,076,240 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Britain is reportedly about to ban the US from using RAF Fairford for strategic bombing strikes on Iran.

BREAKING: Britain is about to ban the US usage of RAF Fairford to bomb energy infrastructure and bridges which is has been using for its strategic bombing strikes on Iran-ipaper

154,350 views377 rt3,158 likesER:0.0099RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

KOL@krassensteinverified996,063 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

An Iranian drone strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait injured 15 Americans, and 373 American service members have been injured in the conflict with Iran.

MAJOR BREAKING: An Iranian drone strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait has injured 15 Americans. Additionally, a staggering 373 American service members have been injured in Trump's idiotic Iran operation, according to a US Central Command spokesperson. https://t.co/xcDGtVWpry

40,751 views863 rt2,019 likesER:0.0194RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL@unusual_whalesverified3,548,243 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish

Trump discussed the ongoing conflict with Iran and suggested the US might charge tolls for passage through the strait.

Reporter: Are you willing to end this conflict with Iran charging tolls for passage through the strait? Trump: Us charging tolls? Reporter: Iran Trump: What about us charging tolls? I'd rather do that. Why shouldn't we? We're the winner. We won. https://t.co/cw4Hf1fh4u

625,651 views187 rt3,745 likesER:0.0021RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@Enkhmanalverified8,654 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

Chinese analysts are assessing what the US is winning and losing in a "China's Iran War Scorecard."

China's Iran War Scorecard: What Beijing's Analysts Say the US Is Winning and Losing 🇨🇳 Хятадын Iran-ы дайны Scorecard (үнэлгээ): Beijing-ийн шинжээчдийн үзэж буйгаар АНУ юун дээр хожиж, бас юуг алдаж байна вэ? 🇺🇸 АНУ саяхан Iran-д унасан F-15 онгоцны багийнхнаа аварсандаа баярлаж байх хооронд Хятадын цэргийн шинжээчид тэс өөр зүйл дүгнэж сууна. Тэдний Beijing-д зориулж гаргасан дүр зураг нь...

4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@macrofinanceaiverified61 flwQ:3/5analysisbearish

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and influences the world economy, giving them leverage over the US.

@axios Axios article is irrelevant currently! Iran holds the cards — unfortunately, not Donald Trump. They control the SOH and therefore indirectly influence the world economy. Their objective is to inflict maximum pressure on the US, particularly through U.S. financial markets.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@KyleLapointe1122 flwQ:2/5analysisbearish

Iran is not perceived as being able to nuke the US, and nuclear Iran could lead to peace through Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

@ShonaM0sh5 @JohnGramble @RepJasonCrow Ok? And? Iran can't nuke us. Israel can.. of anything, Iran with nukes would bring peace through MAD. Israel would be far more receptive about not being genocidal that's for sure.

4 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@BradfordBu21368335 flwQ:2/5newsbullish

Trump issued a new threat against Iran, and details of a US aviator's rescue are emerging.

Trump issues fiery new threat against Iran as details of US aviator's rescue emerge!

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Johniscool444345 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

The US will likely end up rebuilding Iran if it intervenes, similar to Iraq and Afghanistan.

@shaun_show Shaun, the US will end up rebuilding Iran, just like Iraq and Afghanistan before the US. Great idea. Shaun mainly supports Trump on his worst ideas. Who is more professional Trump or Shaun, I would have to say Trump.

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@DrewGood19713,148 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish

US-Israel are bombing Iranian infrastructure (roads, bridges, electricity, nuclear, hospitals, schools).

@RT_com US-ISRAEL do NOT care about IRANIANS and that is VERY CLEAR. By bombing roads, bridges, electricity, nuclear, hospitals, schools. THERY DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE PEOPLE IN IRAN>

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@KarlTheCimerian178 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Trump is inconsistent in his statements and goals regarding the "war" with Iran.

@gfy901736816 @RealAlexJones The problem is, Trump constantly contradicts himself about Iran, he has never settled on a single solid goal for this war, and he tells us it's over and we're victorious while he deploys thousands of ground troops. But it's AJ who's the crazy person. Okay.

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@canada_is_hell334 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

The US and Israel are perceived as unable to win a war against Iran or open the Strait of Hormuz.

@mario4thenorth and yet none of them prefers USrael. The US and israel are cooked, can't even win a war against Iran and open up the strait of Hormuz. It's a fucking paper tiger with useless anti-missile defense system. forget about Greater North America. Nobody wants that shit..

0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@pilwatchgroup265 flwQ:2/5analysisbearish

Iran is gaining regional hegemony and will be calling the shots, not the US.

@thewire_in @SafiAhsanRizvi Iran will be calling the shots henceforth-not US,which has been reduced to regional hegemony by Iran

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Larry_D0g3,649 flwQ:2/5opinionbearish

Iran was not making nukes and was allowing UN inspections until the US broke the deal.

@deniseshrivell They weren't making nukes. Until the US broke the deal they were allowing UN inspections, and the Ayatollah had also banned nukes. Iran wasn't attacked because they had nukes, they were attacked because they didn't. So if they develop them now, who could blame them?

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 800,779.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1	No	0.0030	0.0035	0	+$581,532.78
2	0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d	Yes	0.6345	0.9965	800,779.93	+$289,815.07
3	0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3	Yes	0.6196	0.9965	620,990.26	+$233,992.23
4	0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35	No	0.0010	0.0035	0	+$57,496.44
5	0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708	Yes	0.6207	0.9965	130,947.76	+$50,193.19
6	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.7805	0.9965	220,760.6	+$47,667.95
7	0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14	Yes	0.6716	0.9965	0	+$42,372.6
8	0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7	Yes	0.6225	0.9965	0.01	+$41,966.64
9	0x430fc12ac13646b962c98dd73e159488812f5947	Yes	0.5408	0.9965	0	+$39,847.37
10	0x9f0968feb4ea38e9308a83ce227059458d932848	Yes	0.5986	0.9965	0	+$35,796.86