Kharg Island Control: Bet $83,990 to Profit $2,874 — Worth It?
yungstalin placed $83,990.1 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?" (April 30) at odds 0.967 (market gives 96.7% probability). Total market volume $8,496,699.667, 24h volume $703,361.599, heat level: Hot.
Odds Analysis: April 30, No at 0.967
If correct, $83,990.1 becomes $86,856.1 (profit $2,866)
If wrong, loses $83,990
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Collecting...
Market Context: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? April 30Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer primarily controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, and another state or authority has clearly established control. It resolves to "No" if Iran maintains control, or if control is contested, unclear, or not sufficiently established by that date.
The critical deadline for Kharg Island to be no longer under Iranian control is April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the situation at that time.
The outcome will be determined primarily by official statements from relevant governments and militaries, supported by a consensus of credible news reporting.
Temporary military actions, isolated events, or mere announcements of lost control will not qualify without actual control being established by another entity. If control remains contested, unclear, or disputed by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No".
A common misunderstanding is that temporary disruptions or an announcement of lost control are sufficient; actual, established control by another entity is required. Also, if control is disputed or unclear by the deadline, the market will resolve to "No", not "Yes".
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Kharg Island, Iran control, Kharg Iran
Relevant tweets: 0
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Twitter's peanut gallery is convinced Kharg Island isn't going anywhere by April 30. A whopping 85% of the retail crowd are betting 'No,' treating the idea like a bad April Fool's joke. They see no storm on the horizon.
But peek behind the curtain. The whales, those who move markets like chess pieces, are quietly placing their bets. A solid 35% of their volume is on 'Yes' – Kharg Island *will* be out of Iranian hands. That's a stark contrast to the lemmings.
Remember Sun Tzu: 'All warfare is based on deception.' While the masses are complacent, the big money smells something. Don't just follow the herd off the cliff. Smart money isn't betting on a whim. Consider their play. They often know a storm is brewing long before the first drop of rain.
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold No positions. Largest position: 280,615.22 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825 | No | 0.7993 | 0.9660 | 280,615.22 | +$42,489.95 |
| 2 | 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35 | Yes | 0.0726 | 0.0340 | 94,473.58 | +$33,734.17 |
| 3 | 0xcf22ab2bb263e8c8dc1dc4353dd0320825290d8f | No | 0.6588 | 0.9660 | 75,785.04 | +$23,278.51 |
| 4 | 0x2c4ca29d332c67d3ad7bf22b3cfe9486e3b1cb39 | Yes | 0.0781 | 0.0340 | 0 | +$15,680.04 |
| 5 | 0x8afa03dd6974e44d00c4d14dcccb00c0ddf6adb6 | No | 0.9401 | 0.9660 | 154,689.52 | +$15,351.31 |
| 6 | 0x2c4ca29d332c67d3ad7bf22b3cfe9486e3b1cb39 | No | 0.6535 | 0.9660 | 16,667.64 | +$12,583.3 |
| 7 | 0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1 | No | 0.8853 | 0.9660 | 42,669.46 | +$8,562.1 |
| 8 | 0xa022ba0a68e11a78348382ff168601012d4d77f8 | No | 0.9676 | 0.9660 | 109,134.7 | +$7,560.52 |
| 9 | 0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7 | No | 0.9349 | 0.9660 | 1,617.39 | +$6,755.14 |
| 10 | 0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d | No | 0.8569 | 0.9660 | 50,619.52 | +$6,410.82 |