Why Someone Wagered $97,184 Against China Invading Taiwan
YatSen placed $97,183.97 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?" at odds 0.967 (market gives 96.7% probability). Total market volume $4,263,366.622, 24h volume $361,679.215, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: No at 0.967
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Collecting...
Market Context: Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if China begins a military attack to take control of any part of Taiwan, including its inhabited islands, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No" if this event does not occur by the specified deadline.
The key deadline for the military offensive to commence is June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on whether the event happened.
The outcome will be determined by official confirmations from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of credible news reporting.
Only inhabited islands administered by Taiwan qualify as part of its territory for the "Yes" condition; uninhabited islands do not count. Delays, cancellations, or disputes are not explicitly covered beyond the specified resolution sources.
A common misunderstanding might be to include uninhabited islands as part of Taiwan's territory for the "Yes" condition, which the rules explicitly exclude.
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Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 6 of 10 hold No positions. Largest position: 127,579.09 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x834965f34911dfda31d5b313b5def15e6348c99d | No | 0.6114 | 0.9670 | 29,345.41 | +$10,432.82 |
| 2 | 0x6ae1575206e99751ff60ec5c0adcaad572bc1e7e | No | 0.8048 | 0.9670 | 40,729.55 | +$9,325.81 |
| 3 | 0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882 | Yes | 0.0280 | 0.0330 | 0.01 | +$5,223.26 |
| 4 | 0xa9b44dca52ed35e59ac2a6f49d1203b8155464ed | Yes | 0.0429 | 0.0330 | 0 | +$2,284.98 |
| 5 | 0xd81fbc5c53593e4e2923a641ff2bc7e2d9866b75 | Yes | 0.0320 | 0.0330 | 0 | +$2,090.44 |
| 6 | 0xc97b0b2a2547bb3ed57167092ef8a6e816c347e5 | No | 0.9560 | 0.9670 | 127,579.09 | +$1,439.58 |
| 7 | 0x0eee1b21001ca9af6e5ab8a7321fc2ee46dd4c52 | No | 0.9371 | 0.9670 | 3,000 | +$1,346.86 |
| 8 | 0xb6c83e346ab31df6e24bc53ecb6e15c03b75b9e6 | No | 0.9406 | 0.9670 | 27,340.68 | +$1,008 |
| 9 | 0xa56902ddb745968ad747f3a5a2a5f07ee68d96ec | No | 0.9373 | 0.9670 | 27,780.82 | +$822.78 |
| 10 | 0x0a6d26d31b28fd5a84c301f8b27296612f3b1d0a | Yes | 0.0380 | 0.0330 | 0 | +$675.98 |