China Invade Taiwan by 2026? $124,882 Bet Says No Way
YatSen placed $124,882.32 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at odds 0.9138 (market gives 91.4% probability). Total market volume $19,597,654.251, 24h volume $290,498.429, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: No at 0.9138
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Collecting...
Market Context: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if China begins a military attack to take control of any part of Taiwan, including its inhabited islands, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No" if such an offensive does not occur by that date and time.
The market's outcome depends on events happening up to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which it will resolve.
The outcome will be confirmed by official statements from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of reliable news reports.
The rules clarify that any military action must target inhabited islands or other territory administered by Taiwan; uninhabited islands are not included. No other special conditions for delays, cancellations, or disputes are specified.
A common misunderstanding could be assuming that a military offensive against uninhabited islands controlled by Taiwan would trigger a "Yes" resolution, which the rules explicitly exclude.
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Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 7 of 10 hold No positions. Largest position: 602,860.02 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x99dd407b80e45874638d783f54b0d8c097544303 | No | 0.5293 | 0.9130 | 185,000.05 | +$74,629.01 |
| 2 | 0x6ae1575206e99751ff60ec5c0adcaad572bc1e7e | No | 0.7268 | 0.9130 | 156,615.03 | +$65,601.01 |
| 3 | 0x5bffcf561bcae83af680ad600cb99f1184d6ffbe | No | 0.7496 | 0.9130 | 602,860.02 | +$59,805.18 |
| 4 | 0x2f6e3eeb3d4dc2127ff47367e7b4529bed427d46 | Yes | 0.0980 | 0.0869 | 0 | +$17,470.55 |
| 5 | 0x299dc7ab7b6d7d413311c10464e6349d08b7fe89 | Yes | 0.1080 | 0.0869 | 0 | +$16,633.09 |
| 6 | 0xb9d89bef8c935082f6a86355bd9667402d92275a | No | 0.8756 | 0.9130 | 390,344.78 | +$14,584.45 |
| 7 | 0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a | No | 0.8535 | 0.9130 | 149,437.28 | +$12,971.59 |
| 8 | 0x45b39e1f71e47fd4afe4b988ffad690b644735bc | No | 0.8755 | 0.9130 | 302,711.34 | +$11,348.04 |
| 9 | 0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd | Yes | 0.1066 | 0.0869 | 75,585.88 | +$10,838.67 |
| 10 | 0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4 | No | 0.8296 | 0.9130 | 113,815.77 | +$10,413.5 |