$100,000 Against Over 9.5 White Sox Athletics — Polymarket Whale Bet
noMoohyun523 placed $100,000 BUY Under on Polymarket, betting on "Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics" (O/U 9.5) at odds 0.61 (market gives 61.0% probability). Total market volume $198,303.189, 24h volume $198,298.189, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: O/U 9.5, Under at 0.61
If correct, $100,000 becomes $163,934 (profit $63,934)
If wrong, loses $100,000
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $100,000 betting Under 9.5 runs on the White Sox vs. Athletics. A bold move, if 'bold' means buying at 61.0% implied probability when the market already screams 57.5%. That's not catching a falling knife; that's buying the blade mid-air.
This whale *is* the market, accounting for 50.43% of volume. Meanwhile, the *real* sharps, the Over whales, are laughing from their $0.3900 entry points, sitting on unrealized profits. You paid $100,000 for a potential $63,934 profit, only to find yourself swimming against the current.
And the cherry on top? A canceled game guarantees an 18% loss. With days remaining TBD, this isn't just a bad trade; it's a structural liability. Oof.
Market Context: Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics O/U 9.5Market Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
This market resolves to "Yes" if the Chicago White Sox and Athletics combine to score 10 or more runs in their game. It resolves to "No" if their combined score is less than 10 runs. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50.
The game is scheduled for April 17 at 9:40 PM ET. If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed. Official final statistics should be published within 24 hours after the game's conclusion.
The primary source for resolution is the official final statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If these are not published within 24 hours, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. For postponed game dates, check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for a make-up game.
If the game is postponed, the market will stay open until the game is played. If the game is canceled entirely without a make-up game, the market will resolve 50-50. Not specified in the rules: disputes.
A common misunderstanding might be expecting the market to resolve immediately if the game is postponed, when in fact it will remain open until the game is completed. Another potential mistake is not knowing where to find information about rescheduled games.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: White Sox, Athletics, Sox Athletics
Relevant tweets: 24
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
Whales just dropped $81K on the White Sox/A's Under 9.5. Algorithms agree: 7.7 runs. The Sox offense, hitting a pathetic .193, makes AJ Pierzynski weep. Seems like a no-brainer, right?
Not so fast, my friend. Both starters, Civale (74 pitches) and Martin (84 pitches), have the endurance of a goldfish. Bullpens will be exposed quicker than a politician's scandal.
Here's the kicker: Sox hitters' BABIPs (.172, .182) are *historically* bad luck, not just bad skill. Positive regression is coming like a freight train. Recent 380ft and 401ft HRs are the whistle.
Sacramento's mystery field? Another wild card.
Follow the whale on Under 9.5 if you're feeling brave. But smart money hedges. Be ready to live-bet the Over if the line drops. Or grab Civale O4.5 K's. Don't get caught napping.
KOL — High Relevance (5)
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (1)
Retail — Medium Relevance (5)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 5 of 10 hold Over positions. Largest position: 130,000 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xee00ba338c59557141789b127927a55f5cc5cea1 | Over | 0.3900 | 0.4250 | 130,000 | +$4,550 |
| 2 | 0x5c3a1a602848565bb16165fcd460b00c3d43020b | Over | 0.3900 | 0.4250 | 89,999.99 | +$3,150 |
| 3 | 0x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1 | Over | 0.3900 | 0.4250 | 78,960.95 | +$2,763.63 |
| 4 | 0xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0 | Under | 0.0000 | 0.5750 | 4,569.39 | +$2,627.4 |
| 5 | 0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a | Over | 0.4113 | 0.4250 | 25,800.57 | +$353.39 |
| 6 | 0xae825b67fac24b92f328f25b5d2530567605faf0 | Under | 0.5233 | 0.5750 | 5,914.2 | +$305.57 |
| 7 | 0x339a0e5aea39a7db5cea5b0003abab33c78c1eae | Under | 0.5300 | 0.5750 | 6,149.71 | +$276.74 |
| 8 | 0xa71093cafc0c099b4ccab24c3cb8018d817923c4 | Under | 0.5651 | 0.5750 | 16,728.61 | +$164.06 |
| 9 | 0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a | Under | 0.5300 | 0.5750 | 3,339.36 | +$150.27 |
| 10 | 0xa697d0b3fff7d285a0f92d6ee03a7f97809e59d5 | Over | 0.3986 | 0.4250 | 2,298.21 | +$128.64 |