Kings Will Win Oilers vs. Kings: $80,750 Prediction on Polymarket
kch123 placed $80,749.57 BUY Kings on Polymarket, betting on "Oilers vs. Kings" at odds 0.5099 (market gives 51.0% probability). Total market volume $299,571.46, 24h volume $288,087.044, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: Kings at 0.5099
If correct, $80,749.57 becomes $158,363.57 (profit $77,614)
If wrong, loses $80,750
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
A whale just dropped $80,750 on the Kings, betting that playoff desperation and depleted Oilers rosters trump McDavid's highlight reel. While retail drools over Edmonton's 6-1-1 run, this trader sees Draisaitl and Hyman out, a mystery goalie, and Kings *desperate* for that Wild Card spot. It's a textbook fade of surface-level hype.
They snagged Kings at 51% implied probability, a delicious +EV play when the market should be screaming 55-60% given the situation. This isn't following smart money; this is *challenging* it. They're swimming against 10 other whales, all fat and happy on Oilers profits.
Massive market impact too, gobbling 28.03% of 24h volume. Time is their friend; the closer to puck drop, the more their thesis solidifies.
**Good trade.** A calculated, contrarian move. But remember, McDavid is a one-man wrecking ball, and those other whales aren't playing checkers. Don't get too comfy.
Market Context: Oilers vs. KingsMarket Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves to "Oilers" if the Oilers win the game, and to "Kings" if the Kings win. If the game is canceled entirely without a make-up, the market resolves 50-50. The winner is determined by the final score, including overtime and shootouts, with one goal added to the winning team's score in a shootout.
The game is scheduled for April 11 at 4:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed, meaning the resolution date can be later than the scheduled date.
The outcome will be determined based on the final score of the NHL game, including any overtime periods and shootouts.
If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is played. If the game is completely canceled with no make-up, the market resolves 50-50. In a shootout, one goal is added to the winning team's score for resolution.
A common misunderstanding might be overlooking that the market stays open if the game is postponed, or forgetting the specific rule about adding one goal for a shootout winner.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Oilers, Kings
Relevant tweets: 31
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The public's salivating over McDavid's magic and the Oilers' 6-1-1 run? A classic head-fake. While Edmonton basks atop the Pacific, missing Draisaitl (29) and Hyman (18) isn't just a scratch; it's like a chariot missing two wheels. Coach Knoblauch’s silence on a starter? Red flag.
The Kings, meanwhile, are fighting for their playoff lives, a do-or-die Thermopylae for the final Wild Card.
Then, the PolyWhale drops a $158,366 bomb on the Kings at 51%. This isn't charity; it's smart money exploiting motivational asymmetry. If Edmonton clinches *before* puck drop, expect them to play like they're already on vacation. Don't be a square chasing highlight reels. Fade the narrative. Follow the whale. Kings are the play.
KOL — High Relevance (4)
KOL — Medium Relevance (10)
Retail — High Relevance (5)
Retail — Medium Relevance (8)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 10 of 10 hold Oilers positions. Largest position: 130,959.93 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xdbf16bcffa41bd95faec2640daa2c95ab2bd86b5 | Oilers | 0.4900 | 0.5050 | 81,365 | +$1,752.58 |
| 2 | 0x37c1874a60d348903594a96703e0507c518fc53a | Oilers | 0.4925 | 0.5050 | 130,959.93 | +$1,629.53 |
| 3 | 0x03e8a544e97eeff5753bc1e90d46e5ef22af1697 | Oilers | 0.5000 | 0.5050 | 60,000 | +$300 |
| 4 | 0x507e52ef684ca2dd91f90a9d26d149dd3288beae | Oilers | 0.4870 | 0.5050 | 13,486.93 | +$242.64 |
| 5 | 0xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debf | Oilers | 0.4832 | 0.5050 | 9,381.78 | +$204.42 |
| 6 | 0xa2f1fecf1cc7db65a46588f764b6691533052d22 | Oilers | 0.4883 | 0.5050 | 9,713.84 | +$161.95 |
| 7 | 0xaca23974e2b8131efbafaa1fe03ea9595ea0b9a1 | Oilers | 0.4920 | 0.5050 | 9,870.76 | +$128.14 |
| 8 | 0x95de701f84f0f0fc958736024c3040332829c9b2 | Oilers | 0.5000 | 0.5050 | 24,522 | +$122.61 |
| 9 | 0x86885b4d9faab2d385b20df83f74c1376f119d8c | Oilers | 0.4900 | 0.5050 | 8,071.4 | +$121.07 |
| 10 | 0x6d3c5bd13984b2de47c3a88ddc455309aab3d294 | Oilers | 0.4949 | 0.5050 | 12,000 | +$120.01 |