Trade Report : 

Big Bet: $71,422 on MOUZ to Beat Legacy in Counter-Strike IEM Rio

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-13, data may be outdated
0x1a5c09d9a082aaf2a543b1fc7bce36c41dd8a375
PolyMarket : Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
$71,422.27
Trade Amount
BUY MOUZ
Trade Side
0.4791
Entry Price
Time

0x1a5c09d9a082aaf2a543b1fc7bce36c41dd8a375 placed $71,422.27 BUY MOUZ on Polymarket, betting on "Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B" (Match Winner) at odds 0.4791 (market gives 47.9% probability). Total market volume $203,967.573, 24h volume $197,452.528, heat level: Active.

On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Match Winner, MOUZ at 0.4791

MOUZ odds at 0.4791, market gives 47.9% chance
Match Winner MOUZ
49.5%
Match Winner Legacy
50.5%
Risk/reward ratio 1.1:1
If correct, $71,422.27 becomes $149,076.27 (profit $77,654)
If wrong, loses $71,422

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $71,422 on MOUZ, betting against the tide for a potential $77,654 profit. This isn't just a trade; it's a whale-sized declaration, accounting for 35.02% of the market volume.

With 9 of the top 10 whales already swimming in profit on Legacy, this maverick is effectively walking into a lion's den. The market gives MOUZ a mere 47.9% chance.

But this isn't blind faith. It's a calculated strike, capitalizing on Legacy missing a coach. While everyone else is playing checkers, this trader is playing 4D chess, exploiting fundamental news.

Only 7 days remain until resolution. Fighting smart money and momentum? That's a recipe for disaster or legendary status. The verdict? A shockingly good trade. My envy is palpable.

Market Context: Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Match WinnerMarket Page →

Total Volume
$203,967.573
24h Volume
$197,452.528
Heat
Active
End Date
TBD (To Be Determined)
Created
2026-04-03
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to 'Legacy' if Legacy wins the match against MOUZ, and to 'MOUZ' if MOUZ wins. It resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, or if a team withdraws before the match starts.

Timeline

The match was initially scheduled for April 13. If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from this date without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. Resolution will occur shortly after the event's conclusion, once official results are published.

Source

The primary resolution source is official information from hltv.org. If hltv.org does not publish final results within 2 hours, a consensus of credible reporting, including video evidence, may be used.

Special Cases

If the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond 7 days, it resolves 50-50. If a match begins but one team wins due to an opponent's forfeiture or disqualification, the winning team is declared the winner. Minor discrepancies in team names will be resolved based on the real-world match, but ambiguous names will result in a 50-50 resolution.

Common Mistakes

It's easy to confuse forfeits before the match starts (resolves 50-50) with forfeits during an ongoing match (resolves to the winning team). Also, note that a delay of up to 7 days from the original schedule is allowed before it resolves 50-50.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: IEM Rio, Legacy MOUZ, CS2

Relevant tweets: 39

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

The market’s gone full "chicken with its head cut off" on Legacy vs. MOUZ. Legacy’s flashy Map 1 performance on Dust 2 has retail bettors falling over themselves, pushing MOUZ to a laughable 48%.

But hold your horses, buttercup. This isn't a single map sprint; it's a BO3 marathon.

Legacy’s playing without a coach – their tactical Achilles' heel. That’s like sending a general to war without his strategists.

Meanwhile, a $146,737 whale just dropped a bomb on MOUZ at 48%. They’re playing the long game.

Betting on MOUZ’s Rio pedigree and Legacy’s inevitable tactical meltdown. Don't be a paper hand.

Follow the smart money. Buy MOUZ now; the coach-less wonder won't last.

KOL — High Relevance (2)

KOL@eslbrasilverified77,983 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
Legacy played equally against MOUZ on Dust 2, showing strong performance in their IEM Rio 2026 match.
TUDO IGUAL NA DUST 2! 🇧🇷🔥 A @legacyggbr não se intimidou, jogou de igual pra igual contra a @mousesports e provou que o sonho continua vivo no #IEM Rio 2026! https://t.co/rgmcS03Qlq
304 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@peacemakerverified55,319 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The Legacy vs MOUZ match at IEM Rio 2026 is currently live.
ESTAMOS AO VIVO! IEM RIO 2026 - DIA 01 @legacyggbr vs @mousesports E na sequencia tem FURIA! 👇 https://t.co/32O9V8Sn5u
219 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (10)

KOL@dust2_brverified76,127 flwQ:4/5newsbearish
Legacy is debuting at IEM Rio without their coach.
❌ @legacyggbr estreia na IEM Rio sem treinador https://t.co/504iVEyYQz
896 views0 rt12 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@HLTVorgverified805,368 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Day one of IEM Rio 2026 is currently underway.
Day one of IEM Rio 2026 is underway 👀📺 https://t.co/Qmw4ZEGgDt
9,024 views2 rt42 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@IEMverified411,061 flwQ:3/5newsbullish
Gentlemates secured a 13-8 victory over G2 on Inferno at IEM Rio 2026.
.@gentlemates begin their day with a 13-8 victory on Inferno over @G2CSGO here at #IEM Rio 2026 We're heading over to Mirage, up next! https://t.co/6hXODMiysj
5,599 views1 rt28 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@FURIA621,180 flwQ:3/5firsthandbullish
A player, referred to as 'Pelé dos Games', received a warm reception at Galeão airport for IEM Rio, with other players (yeki, siddão, molodas) arriving later.
ele é o Pelé dos Games!!!!!! Recepção calorosa da torcida hoje cedinho no Galeão! 🙏 (yeki siddão e molodas chegam mais tarde) AQUEEEEEELE CLIMINHA DE #IEM RIO https://t.co/sdLUpMnWfV
11,803 views9 rt506 likesER:0.0011RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@mousesports171,752 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
MOUZ reflects on their IEM Rio Major 2022 victory against C9, noting that torzsi and xertioN are still with the team.
🇧🇷 Rio will always hold a special place in our hearts. Beating @C9CSGO at IEM Rio Major 2022 with torzsi xertioN dexter frozen JDC almost 4 years later, both torzsi and xertioN still part of the core that went from underdogs to veterans. https://t.co/1s7VuPsUNi
2,099 views0 rt66 likesER:0.0004RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@FURIA621,180 flwQ:3/5firsthandneutral
FURIA is making final adjustments for their debut at IEM Rio.
Últimos ajustes pra nossa estreia na #IEM Rio! https://t.co/6aXgVXBXtx
192,947 views40 rt2,109 likesER:0.0047RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
KOL@TACOCSverified492,339 flwQ:2/5newsbullish
IEM Rio 2026 begins tomorrow.
Amanhã começa o IEM Rio 2026! 🇧🇷 Boa sorte aos times brasileiros! 🫡 https://t.co/PvPeEFyNzJ
6,599 views10 rt384 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@gentlemates323,413 flwQ:2/5firsthandbullish
Team Gentlemates' IEM Rio adventure begins today around 15:00.
Notre aventure à l’IEM Rio commence aujourd’hui ! Rendez-vous vers 15h sur la chaîne de Brawks #M8WIN https://t.co/KvGuwOePJx
23,129 views55 rt997 likesER:0.0065RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@HLTVorgverified805,368 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
The best teams in the world will return to action tomorrow at IEM Rio.
The best teams in the world return to action tomorrow at IEM Rio 🇧🇷👀 https://t.co/aqFbIjkeD3
74,204 views40 rt1,815 likesER:0.0032RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@HLTVorgverified805,368 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
A link to highlights from the IEM Rio 2026 group stage is provided.
IEM Rio 2026 group stage highlights https://t.co/Z1LNNKIuJ5
8,768 views1 rt37 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (2)

RETAIL@KoalaBetCS22 flwQ:5/5analysisbullish
Betting odds show Legacy to win Map1 against MOUZ at 1.32 (live odds).
Bet nº72 🗓️ 13/04/2026 🏆 IEM Rio 2026 🇺🇦 B8 🆚 NAVI 🇪🇺 📊 NAVI win Map2 @ 1.22 🇧🇷 Legacy 🆚 MOUZ 🇪🇺 📊 Legacy win Map1 @ 1.32 (Live 🔴) ➡️ Odd ≈ 1.61 #CS2 #IEMRio
52 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0455RR:2.4Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@PolyWhaleFeedverified170 flwQ:4/5analysisneutral
PolyWhale Trade Alert shows MOUZ at 48% in the Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ market.
🐳 PolyWhale Trade Alert — $146,737 📊 Market: Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B 🎯 Outcome: MOUZ @ 48% 🔗 https://t.co/cqkMJ0BMTI #polymarket #predictionmarkets
0 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@infocsargverified38,860 flwQ:3/5newsbearish
Passion UA will debut against FURIA at IEM Rio, with Senzu absent from TRY's team for the tournament.
🇦🇷 SE VIENE EL DEBUT DE TRY EN #IEM RIO. Desde las 17:30 hs (puede ser un rato antes) Passion UA hace su presentación frente a FURIA 🇧🇷 El equipo de TRY 🇦🇷 llega con la baja de Senzu 🇲🇳 por este torneo y su reemplazo será FaNg 🇨🇦 https://t.co/s2G22GSVhE
1,538 views2 rt89 likesER:0.0033RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@arhavalcomverified5,960 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
Aurora will face Hotu at IEM Rio 2026 at 23:30, with predictions locking at 23:20.
İEM Rio 2026 Yolculuğuna başlıyoruz 🔥 Temsilcimiz, VRS#50 Rakibi Hotu ile karşı karşıya gelecek. Tahminler saat 23.20’de kitlenecektir. 🆚 Aurora vs Hotu ⏰ 23:30 👇 https://t.co/VTj9xl8KY7
1,617 views0 rt25 likesER:0.0042RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@B8esportsGGverified16,590 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The upper bracket quarter-final match between B8 and NAVI at IEM Rio 2026 is scheduled for 29:00 CET.
Upper bracket quarter-final of IEM Rio 2026: 🟪 B8 vs NAVI 🟪 29:00 CET 📺 https://t.co/hdtUBnFLzR 🇺🇦 https://t.co/9bOrhdjc3A Catch it live 🫶 https://t.co/Mzy330dY9H
326 views0 rt8 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Somni_778217 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
Reports that siuhy and ultimate (Liquid) dropped to the lower bracket at IEM Rio on April 13, 2026.
Wyniki Polaków - 13.04.2026 IEM Rio ❌siuhy, ultimate (Liquid) > Spadek do LB Conquest of Prague ✅ESC > 1-0 ✅kisserek (SINNERS) > 1-0 EPL S6 ✅Phantom > Awans 1/2 ✅F1KU (Metizport) > Awans 1/2 ❌Muciek (HEROIC Academy) > Eliminacja (1/4)
3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@lepajeecsverified25,347 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
Na'Vi achieved the first 13-0 score at IEM Rio by winning B8's map pick, Ancient.
First 13–0 at IEM Rio just happened ‼️😅 Na'Vi has taken B8's map pick, Ancient. #IEMRio #cs2 #counterstrike #gaming #fps https://t.co/m5vVieAoTf
23 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TSpirit_Academy1,536 flwQ:2/5firsthandneutral
A new 'boost' (in-game tactic) was spotted on Day 1 of IEM Rio 2026.
IEM Rio 2026 Day 1 and a new boost already spotted 😮‍💨 https://t.co/kAy7xAmIvC
24 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@igorsqj0 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish
An opinion states that a certain team will easily win IEM Rio because no other team in the tournament is at their level.
@RauleSrib Eles vão ganhar a IEM Rio tranquilamente, não tem nenhum time no nível deles comparando aos que já estão no campeonato
184 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@TheCSTimesverified41,845 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
Na'Vi achieved the first 13-0 score at IEM Rio by winning B8's map pick, Ancient.
First 13–0 at IEM Rio just happened ‼️😅 Na'Vi has taken B8's map pick, Ancient. https://t.co/uNCfEyD04P
581 views1 rt26 likesER:0.0011RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@RauleSribverified11,094 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
An opinion states that a particular match at IEM Rio was the most balanced.
Jogo mais equilibrado da IEM Rio https://t.co/cNXCAJaGt5
209 views0 rt16 likesER:0.0014RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@superlua_74,675 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
The first 13-0 score at IEM Rio was achieved by the current champion.
O primeiro 13-0 do IEM Rio veio do atual campeão. https://t.co/dRPmOhkBYW
89 views0 rt11 likesER:0.0024RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 9 of 10 hold Legacy positions. Largest position: 115,610.32 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1Legacy0.00000.5250115,610.32+$60,695.42
20xc35049bc7b6bd28a49a40b261466ca91aad63669Legacy0.27000.525032,769.32+$9,026.58
30x27653cd5aab78f00563f50a03c12504a9b877ee4Legacy0.00000.525010,000+$5,250
40x21ecbb95a15822bbdd4ab71345385a6056d95348Legacy0.27000.525019,999.99+$5,100
50xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9ccLegacy0.27540.525012,620.86+$3,149.85
60x0dcf5b49627c5194805bd1af846fd0bd3388c556Legacy0.34950.525016,343.24+$2,868.22
70x8c0b024c17831a0dde038547b7e791ae6a0d7aa5Legacy0.00000.52505,000+$2,625
80x686ffb376dc84f660948450c4596929b4f92ccb1Legacy0.27000.52507,001.63+$1,785.42
90xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0MOUZ0.00000.47503,472.13+$1,649.26
100x76451b711ca9bd422155bc3dfe23ab1dfed03117Legacy0.26000.52505,999.97+$1,589.99
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