NHL Ducks Loss Unlikely, Says $84,058 Polymarket Bet
FAZES1MPLE placed $84,058.4 BUY Ducks on Polymarket, betting on "Ducks vs. Wild" at odds 0.57 (market gives 57.0% probability). Total market volume $312,706.647, 24h volume $306,046.513, heat level: Active.
Odds Analysis: Ducks at 0.57
If correct, $84,058.4 becomes $147,471.4 (profit $63,413)
If wrong, loses $84,058
Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN
Someone just dropped $84,058 on the Ducks, hoping for $63,413 profit, with 0 days remaining. This whale, responsible for 26.88% of market volume, paid a 57.0% premium. For what? A sudden-death overtime scenario that's historically a 50/50 coin flip. Talk about buying a lottery ticket after the draw, then overpaying.
Every other whale holding Ducks already secured better entry prices, from $0.4699 to $0.5402, and they're all in profit. Even the largest Wild whale is sitting pretty at $0.4300. This isn't a strategic play; it's a donation. A truly bad trade.
Market Context: Ducks vs. WildMarket Page →
Resolution Rules (Original)
Rules Explained AI_GEN
The market resolves to 'Ducks' if the Ducks win the game, and to 'Wild' if the Wild win, based on the final score including any overtime or shootouts. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up, the market resolves 50-50.
The game is scheduled for April 14 at 8:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed.
The outcome will be determined by the final score of the NHL game, including any overtime periods and shootouts.
If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it's played. If it's canceled without a make-up, the market resolves 50-50. In a shootout, one goal is added to the winning team's score for resolution purposes.
A common mistake is assuming the market resolves immediately on the specified end date, even if the game is postponed, or not accounting for overtime and shootouts in the final score.
Twitter Sentiment Analysis
Search Keywords for Twitter: Ducks, Wild, Ducks Wild
Relevant tweets: 28
Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN
The $84K whale on Ducks at 57.0¢? That’s not a bet, it’s a donation. We’re in Overtime, folks. This isn't chess; it's sudden-death hockey, a glorified coin flip. Tailing this whale at 57¢ in OT is like paying a premium for a coin toss.
Yes, Gauthier’s a beast, two goals on 13 minutes TOI. Analyst @MackSapia frets about line chemistry, but Gauthier’s out here defying physics. Ducks clinching playoffs? Great morale boost. But morale doesn't stop pucks in 3-on-3.
The market’s got a case of the Emperor’s New Clothes. That 57¢ price tag is pure delusion. If Ducks odds dip below 50¢ in OT, *then* you consider it. Otherwise, fade the hubris. This whale is swimming into a maelstrom.
KOL — High Relevance (10)
KOL — Medium Relevance (6)
Retail — High Relevance (3)
Retail — Medium Relevance (1)
Top Whale Positions in This Market
10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 6 of 10 hold Ducks positions. Largest position: 175,000 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.
| # | Address | Side | Avg Price | Curr Price | Size | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xc29a02c2d0683d9cc1e5ef810cdf48a9e2c67816 | Ducks | 0.5238 | 0.5649 | 46,065.97 | +$1,891.47 |
| 2 | 0x19254b55e7c48e88baab9e62cc218223a6544654 | Ducks | 0.5402 | 0.5649 | 73,628.33 | +$1,814.5 |
| 3 | 0xb45a797faa52b0fd8adc56d30382022b7b12192c | Wild | 0.4300 | 0.4350 | 175,000 | +$875 |
| 4 | 0xb8596e2e7c2c26b37785a080849fcf22263ce244 | Ducks | 0.5400 | 0.5649 | 33,308.11 | +$829.37 |
| 5 | 0xead152b855effa6b5b5837f53b24c0756830c76a | Wild | 0.4400 | 0.4350 | 1,106.09 | +$564.05 |
| 6 | 0x03e8a544e97eeff5753bc1e90d46e5ef22af1697 | Ducks | 0.5000 | 0.5649 | 4,476.27 | +$290.51 |
| 7 | 0xfcd0892ffd4a61327a5573b1496f7382c812865f | Ducks | 0.4699 | 0.5649 | 1,900 | +$180.31 |
| 8 | 0x4c31ebce7719de90c59b17becf9fac199b2cebdb | Wild | 0.4282 | 0.4350 | 728.95 | +$172.93 |
| 9 | 0xe779a62d58d3f8a1b48930566f0198b064b8335e | Ducks | 0.5000 | 0.5649 | 2,480 | +$160.95 |
| 10 | 0xa697d0b3fff7d285a0f92d6ee03a7f97809e59d5 | Wild | 0.4277 | 0.4350 | 1,800 | +$141 |