Trade Report : 

$100K Profit: Polymarket Whale Bets FURIA Wins IEM Rio CS

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-14, data may be outdated
Dhdhsjsj   (0x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15)
PolyMarket : Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
$88,830
Trade Amount
BUY FURIA
Trade Side
0.47
Entry Price
Time

Dhdhsjsj placed $88,830 BUY FURIA on Polymarket, betting on "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B" (Match Winner) at odds 0.47 (market gives 47.0% probability). Total market volume $634,694.321, 24h volume $634,694.321, heat level: Hot.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: Match Winner, FURIA at 0.47

FURIA odds at 0.47, market gives 47.0% chance
Match Winner FURIA
46.5%
Match Winner Natus Vincere
53.5%
Risk/reward ratio 1.1:1
If correct, $88,830 becomes $189,000 (profit $100,170)
If wrong, loses $88,830

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $88,830 on FURIA, eyeing a $100,170 profit. This whale isn't just betting; they're making a statement, owning 14.0% of the market. Buying in at a juicy 47.0% implied probability? That's not a gamble, it's a calculated move.

With 7 days left, 8 of the top 10 whales are already on board. The real kicker: that $0.47 entry creates an asymmetric structural advantage, guaranteeing $0.50 even if the market cancels.

Leveraging underdog pricing and a potent home-crowd catalyst? This isn't just smart money. It's practically a cheat code. Bravo, you magnificent bastard.

Market Context: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Match WinnerMarket Page →

Total Volume
$634,694.321
24h Volume
$634,694.321
Heat
Hot
End Date
TBD (To Be Determined)
Created
2026-04-13
Holders
10

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to 'Natus Vincere' if Natus Vincere wins the match against FURIA, or to 'FURIA' if FURIA wins. It resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner, or if a team forfeits before the match starts.

Timeline

The match was initially scheduled for April 14. If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from this scheduled date (i.e., after April 21) without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The resolution source must publish results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion.

Source

The primary resolution source is official information from hltv.org. If hltv.org does not publish final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting, including video evidence, may be used.

Special Cases

If the match begins but one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the market resolves to the winning team. If team names have minor discrepancies, the market resolves based on the clearly identifiable real-world team; otherwise, it resolves 50-50.

Common Mistakes

It is easy to misinterpret the difference between a forfeiture before the match starts (resolves 50-50) versus a forfeiture during the match (resolves to the winning team). Also, note the 7-day delay limit for a winner to be determined before a 50-50 resolution.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: NaVi FURIA, IEM Rio, CS

Relevant tweets: 37

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

NAVI vs FURIA: Maps are out (Mirage, Dust2, Nuke). Thanks, official FURIA. This isn't a friendly. It's a playoff ticket.

Ignore the fan-fic roster rumors. Real drama? NAVI's *bond1e* throwing shade at FURIA's coach *sidde*. Old rivalries, new Instagram posts.

Match at 3 PM, *theoretically*. If Falcons vs Spirit goes full marathon, expect delays. Fatigue is real.

Rio's crowd isn't just loud. It's a 6th player for FURIA. A psychological weapon. NAVI needs earplugs and nerves of steel.

Market's split. NAVI's IGL brain vs FURIA's home-turf beast. One retail bettor's "disasterclass" call on NAVI's *Molodoy*? A whisper of doubt.

This isn't a whale-friendly sweep. It's a knife-fight. Over 2.5 maps is your friend. Live bet after Map 1. Let the crowd's roar and schedule's chaos settle. Don't get swept by the hype.

KOL — High Relevance (10)

KOL@FURIA621,317 flwQ:5/5firsthandneutral
The official maps for the match are Mirage, Dust2, and Nuke.
Mapas definidos pro jogão de hoje! 🗺️ Mirage 🗺️ Dust2 🗺️ Nuke #DIADEFURIA #IEM https://t.co/W4ykjOEpsR
303 views0 rt22 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@FURIA621,317 flwQ:5/5firsthandbullish
FURIA won their opening match at IEM Rio 2026 2-0 against Passion UA (13-3 on Inferno, 13-7 on Mirage) and will face NAVI tomorrow.
A ESTREIA QUE QUERÍAMOS. VITÓRIA da #FURIACS no RJ! 💪🇧🇷 Inferno 13-3 Mirage 13-7 2x0 vs Passion UA pra começarmos a #IEM Rio 2026 da melhor forma! Voltaremos ao server amanhã pra enfrentar a NAVI! heheheh #DIADEFURIA
26,798 views120 rt2,278 likesER:0.0075RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@FURIA621,317 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish
FURIA will play NAVI at 3 PM in a Best-of-3 match to determine the first team to qualify for the IEM Rio 2026 Playoffs.
É DIA DE FURIA x NAVI no RJ! 🔥 Nos vemos às 15h na MD3 que definirá o 1° classificado para os Playoffs da #IEM Rio 2026! 🇧🇷 #DIADEFURIA https://t.co/KscG5YbEvq
4,184 views5 rt236 likesER:0.0005RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@FURIA621,317 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish
FURIA will face Natus Vincere at 3 PM on Tuesday in their second match at IEM Rio 2026, with playoff qualification at stake.
FURIA. NAVI. Rio de Janeiro. Te lembra algo? 🤔 2° confronto definido na #IEM Rio 2026! 🇧🇷 #FURIACS vs Natus Vincere às 15h dessa terça! E o que ta em jogo? Nada menos que a CLASSIFICAÇÃO pros Playoffs na Farmasi Arena! 🏟️ ATÉ AMANHÃ. NO NOSSO #DIADEFURIA
14,648 views24 rt773 likesER:0.0020RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@steelegabrverified102,057 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
FURIA vs NAVI is highlighted as a major confrontation at IEM Rio 2026, drawing attention, especially with a full Brazilian crowd.
Tem jogo grande no IEM Rio 2026 e a gente vai acompanhar de perto 🔥 FURIA x NAVI é daqueles confrontos que chamam atenção de todo mundo, ainda mais no Brasil, com arena cheia e torcida brasileira fazendo barulho 🇧🇷 Mesmo de fora, vai ser impossível não entrar no clima desse duelo 🫡 🔵 Faça seu palpite com a 1XBET e participe do jogo! https://t.co/CDKR8rLpzr
1,219 views0 rt26 likesER:0.0003RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@mch_AGGverified173,462 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The tweet lists FURIA vs NAVI as one of the upcoming matches at IEM Rio 2026, which will determine playoff qualification or elimination.
QUEM VAI PROS PLAYOFFS? QUEM SERÁ ELIMINADO? [IEM Rio 2026 - AO VIVO] - 🇧🇷 RED Canids vs Gentle Mates 🇪🇸 - 🇷🇺 Spirit vs Falcons 🇪🇺 - 🇧🇷 FURIA vs NAVI 🇪🇺 - 🇧🇷 Legacy vs HOTU 🇷🇺 Seja SUB ou MEMBRO para o !SORTEIO Michel na KICK e Twitch // mch_AGG no YouTube
3,064 views4 rt126 likesER:0.0012RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@tixinhadoisverified360,820 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The streamer is currently broadcasting IEM Rio 2026, with Falcons vs Spirit happening now, and FURIA vs NAVI scheduled to follow.
Estamos ONLINE transmitindo a IEM RIO 2026 Falcons vs Spirit (agora) Furia vs Navi (logo depois) BOTAnoTIXA https://t.co/hpo62cchhK
951 views0 rt16 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@KotoBerat7 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The user predicts the FURIA vs NAVI match will start around 3 AM and likely go to a third map, due to the preceding Falcons vs Spirit match.
@mirageavci @AuroraCS2_GG gece 3 de anca başlayacak gibi amk öyle bir yayına koymuşlar ki bizi falcons vs spirit ondan sonra furia navi 3. mape gitmeme olasılıkları yok amk
92 views0 rt2 likesER:0.2857RR:13.1Source: X/Twitter
KOL@tixinhadoisverified360,820 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish
FURIA is ranked #3 and NAVI is ranked #2, with the tweet expressing hype for FURIA.
É AGORA! FURIOSA EM CAMPO! FURIA #3 vs NAVI #2 BOTAnoTIXA https://t.co/Y4Rrs8jy2d
69 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@imperialesports224,427 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
Palpites de amanhã para Liquid vs 3DMAX e FURIA vs NaVi! O que vocês acham? #Implastpixel #impcorteslp #labimp #implegends https://t.co/1cuwHXZArb
1,810 views1 rt10 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

KOL — Medium Relevance (7)

KOL@rusenali_611 flwQ:4/5newsneutral
Reports past match results, including FURIA winning 2-1 against Passion UA and NAVI winning 2-0 against B8.
Furia 2-1 Passion UA NAVİ 2-0 B8 Aurora 2-0 Hotu Mouz 2-1 Legacy @CounterStrike
515 views0 rt2 likesER:2.0000RR:515.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@F1stzz26 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The tweet speculates about potential roster changes including frozen joining NAVI and Twistzz joining FURIA.
@Mozi_sp @HLTVorg FaZe CS ceases operations, Falcons activate the Boston protocol, frozen to NaVi & your homeboi out, Twistzz to FURIA unless we don't believe in makazze – the rest can fill their applications for McDonalds. Zero overreaction on display frfr, btw
240 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:9.2Source: X/Twitter
KOL@Cristhi648425065 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
The user predicts FURIA will win 2-0 against NAVI.
@DiaDeFurta Red não faz nem 8 round nos 2 mapas; G2 2x0; Spirit 2x0; Falcons 2x0; Navi 2x0; Mouz 2x0; Furia 2x0; Aurora 2x0.
104 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:20.8Source: X/Twitter
KOL@navi_gooner164 flwQ:3/5opinionbearish
The user predicts a 'disasterclass' performance from Molodoy and a 1.55 rating for Npl, implying a negative outlook for NAVI's performance.
molodoy disasterclass and Npl 1.55 incoming https://t.co/QsdfyPRsdF
1,291 views0 rt41 likesER:0.2500RR:7.9Source: X/Twitter
KOL@Amy5304507238271 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
The tweet lists the schedule for IEM Rio Group Stage matches on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, including B8 vs NaVi at 1 AM WIB.
IEM Rio Group Stage -Selasa, 14 April 2026 (Dini Hari)🎮 NaVi dan MOUZ main barengan jam 1 pagi! Siapa yang bakal ambil poin penuh? 🔥 01:00 WIB | B8 vs NaVi 🔥 01:00 WIB | Legacy vs MOUZ 🔥 03:30 WIB | FURIA vs Passion UA 🔥 03:30 WIB | Aurora vs HOTU #Dewacash #Jadwalesports https://t.co/uvIw9dwyPR
5 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:5.0Source: X/Twitter
KOL@3DMAXGamingverified30,725 flwQ:2/5emotionneutral
Coé Rapaziada ! #IEM Rio 2026 🇧🇷 Tomorrow #DevilNeverDies 👹 https://t.co/QJcsbIzLBP
15,844 views18 rt546 likesER:0.0295RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter
KOL@nandoshowwwverified18,765 flwQ:2/5opinionbullish
The user states that FURIA played a great game against NRG.
É galera, a FURIA não foi um time de viagem solo em 2026 Grande jogo da equipe brasileira na escolha da NRG
8,549 views3 rt626 likesER:0.0366RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (10)

RETAIL@alfonavellanedaverified6,368 flwQ:4/5newsbullish
FURIA will face Natus Vincere in the upper semifinals of Group B, having recently defeated Passion UA 2-0.
🇧🇷 @FURIA enfrentará a @natusvincere en las upper semis del grupo B, tras vencer a Passion UA por 2-0 recién El winning moment 🐾 #DiaDeFuria https://t.co/TUOqUrJLOB
1,316 views0 rt41 likesER:0.0064RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@secomandi75,485 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
The user predicts NAVI will win 2-1 against FURIA, citing NAVI's IGL's ability to play against FURIA.
@DrK1NGG Hj é Navi, igl deles sabe jogar contra a Furia. Vejo um 2-1 pra Navi
29 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@fanpagenaviverified1,720 flwQ:3/5firsthandneutral
NAVI player bond1e posted on Instagram about repeatedly facing FURIA coach sidde, highlighting a rivalry.
”again and again fighting my G (Furia coach 🇧🇷sidde ) Navi 🇱🇹bond1e via IG. https://t.co/5BMekCmbcQ
1,249 views0 rt35 likesER:0.0203RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@DrK1NGGverified6,549 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
Despite FURIA's struggles this year, they are playing at home and historically perform well against NAVI.
@vacaaa Apesar dessa furia ta chumbada esse ano tao jogando em casa e falando de confronto a furia desempenha bem contra a navi.
265 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@JaxonMVPverified24,658 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The tweet provides a link to a match preview for NAVI vs FURIA.
NAVI vs FURIA match preview https://t.co/qcBN1owudp
97 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@JaxonMVPverified24,658 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
NAVI will face FURIA in the Group B upper bracket semifinal of IEM Rio 2026, with the winner moving closer to playoffs qualification.
NAVI is gearing up to face off against FURIA in the Group B upper bracket semifinal of #IEMRio2026. The series will see the winner move a step closer to qualification for the playoffs, while the defeated team will have to fight through the lower bracket for a shot at qualification. #NaVi #FURIA
104 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@CeguetaGamesverified8,162 flwQ:3/5emotionneutral
The tweet lists FURIA vs NAVI as one of several exciting events happening in CS, celebrating the vibrant scene.
- G3x de volta ao CS - vitality sangrando - red canids eliminando os espanhóis. - donk x monesy - furia x navi - Brasil x dukefissura O bom cs VIVE. https://t.co/o9GPwveJG8
4,002 views17 rt326 likesER:0.0816RR:0.5Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@vbet_brasil4,418 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
FURIA won 2-0 yesterday and is entering the match against NAVI with strong momentum.
FURIA IMPECÁVEL! Depois do 2 a 0 de ontem, as panteras chegam embaladas para encarar a NAVI hoje. Já a matilha e a tropa precisam lutar para se manterem a low bracket. Pra quem vai o seu palpite? https://t.co/jGfxuZ5JkT #cs2 #iemrio #iemrio2026 #furia #redcanids #legacy https://t.co/5SVTDyCr0a
129 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0002RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AndreMuchagataverified15,350 flwQ:3/5opinionbullish
The user predicts NAVI will win against FURIA.
Dia 2 da IEM Rio 2026 🇪🇺 Vitality > G2 🇪🇺 🇧🇷 RED Canids < Gentle Mates 🇪🇸 🇷🇺 Spirit < Falcons 🇪🇺 🌎 Liquid < 3DMAX 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 NAVI > FURIA 🇧🇷 🇪🇺 MOUZ < Aurora 🇹🇷 🇧🇷 Legacy > HOTU 🇷🇺
338 views0 rt2 likesER:0.0001RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@neandrooo208 flwQ:1/5emotionneutral
@c4bralsf palpites furia e navi hj?
30 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (7)

RETAIL@KSRD_718568 flwQ:3/5opinionneutral
The tweet speculates on potential roster changes for NAVI (replacing iM with frozen) and FURIA (replacing Yuurih with Twistzz) to become Vitality-beaters.
FaZe imploding has made the possiblity for 3 potential Vitality-beaters: - Falcons w/ Karrigan is alreadyh exciting - Navi replacing iM with frozen seems obvious - Furia -Yuurih +Twistzz could be insanely good, given Twistzz was absolutely insane on Anchor roles back in the day.
63 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0018RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@CS2_bo3ggverified5,699 flwQ:3/5newsneutral
The tweet provides a link to the group standings after the opening matches.
Group standings after the opening matches 📌 https://t.co/lnrd9Awppy
41 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@arhavalcomverified5,996 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
The tweet announces the match between Aurora and Hotu at 23:30, with predictions locking at 23:20.
İEM Rio 2026 Yolculuğuna başlıyoruz 🔥 Temsilcimiz, VRS#50 Rakibi Hotu ile karşı karşıya gelecek. Tahminler saat 23.20’de kitlenecektir. 🆚 Aurora vs Hotu ⏰ 23:30 👇 https://t.co/VTj9xl8KY7
1,999 views1 rt29 likesER:0.0082RR:0.3Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@AceVenturaGalo4,730 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
The tweet references a hypothetical scenario where a player named Molodoy wants to join Vitality or NAVI, with FURIA's implied disapproval.
@dust2_br @FURIA Molodoy: Quero sair pra jogar na Vitality ou NAVI. Fúria: Não diga mais nada.
665 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0006RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@Hivyx_x135 flwQ:2/5opinionneutral
The user expresses surprise that G2 ended Vitality's 24-map win streak, mentioning NAVI and FURIA as other strong teams.
youre telling me the team to end vitality’s 24 map win streak. is THIS iteration of G2???? not even falcons, navi, furia, or mongolz. But G2?
97 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0074RR:0.7Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@nandoshowwwverified18,765 flwQ:2/5newsbullish
Reports on an interview where shaW reflects on FURIA's victory over NRG and their potential in VCT Americas 2026 Stage 1.
🎙️🇧🇷 shaW reflete grande vitória da FURIA sobre NRG, destaca potencial sul-americano e promete que a equipe ainda tem "bastante coisa para mostrar" no VCT Americas 2026 Stage 1 Confira o papo exclusivo com o treinador da FURIA ⤵️ https://t.co/xN2DmiUHLY
3,110 views1 rt23 likesER:0.0023RR:0.2Source: X/Twitter
RETAIL@trcsesporverified17,668 flwQ:2/5newsneutral
The tweet announces the start of IEM Rio 2026 and presents the initial matches.
🏆 IEM Rio 2026 Başlıyor!!!! İşte turnuvanın ilk maçları karşınızda! https://t.co/hySAA4aGww
1,729 views1 rt25 likesER:0.0025RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 8 of 10 hold FURIA positions. Largest position: 682,626.9 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#AddressSideAvg PriceCurr PriceSizePnL
10xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0FURIA0.00000.46509,500.74+$4,417.84
20x5d58e38cd0a7e6f5fa67b7f9c2f70dd70df09a15FURIA0.46200.4650682,626.9+$1,996.68
30x2a2c53bd278c04da9962fcf96490e17f3dfb9bc1FURIA0.46000.46500+$1,600
40xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0Natus Vincere0.00000.53501,841.21+$985.05
50xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff523aafbdbbd40cFURIA0.00000.46501,422.52+$661.47
60xc257ea7e3a81ca8e16df8935d44d513959fa358eFURIA0.46000.465076,076.41+$380.38
70xe3aa0792574e034844389cb45993f97566611485Natus Vincere0.53000.535044,444+$222.22
80x183f8b17cfb09c9115d068b2da3033b54f4c85e3FURIA0.44000.46506,899.87+$172.5
90x21ecbb95a15822bbdd4ab71345385a6056d95348FURIA0.44000.46506,635.47+$165.89
100x719394f746ec6014f7bcfc6150d9455bdc9aae51FURIA0.43000.46504,675.18+$163.63
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