Iranian Regime Won't Fall by June: $81,060 Polymarket Prediction

The market resolves "Yes" if Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or stops governing by June 30, 2026, meaning its core structures are dissolved or replaced by a fundamentally different system. It resolves "No" if these conditions are not met by the deadline, or if changes are merely routine political events, reforms, or internal power shifts that preserve the regime's core.

The event must occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve "Yes". The market will then resolve based on whether this condition was met by that specific date and time.

The outcome will be determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting from various sources.

The rules clarify that routine political events, internal coups preserving core structures, or partial loss of territory (unless the regime loses control over most of the population) do not qualify. How delays or disputes are specifically handled is not detailed.

A common mistake is to confuse routine political changes, reforms, or internal power shifts with a complete overthrow or collapse of the regime. Another is to assume partial loss of territory automatically qualifies without the regime losing control over the majority of the population.