Trade Report :

Why Bet $74,010 WTI Crude Oil Won't Hit $110 by April 2026?

This analysis was generated on 2026-04-13, data may be outdated

bin8888 (0xa80e3fe5e7a445fa047fe6de1e27f9a15217b94b)

PolyMarket : What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?

$74,010.32

Trade Amount

BUY No

Trade Side

0.2

Entry Price

2026-04-12 23:51:53 ET

Time

bin8888 placed $74,010.32 BUY No on Polymarket, betting on "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?" (↑ $110) at odds 0.2 (market gives 20.0% probability). Total market volume $189,955.438, 24h volume $97,861.527, heat level: Moderate.

Trader Profile →|On-chain Record →

Odds Analysis: ↑ $110, No at 0.2

No odds at 0.2, market gives 20.0% chance

↑ $110 No

18.5%

↑ $110 Yes

81.5%

Risk/reward ratio 4:1
If correct, $74,010.32 becomes $370,052.32 (profit $296,042)
If wrong, loses $74,010

Analysis of This Trade AI_GEN

Someone just dropped $74,010 betting WTI Crude won't hit $110 by April 30, 2026.

This isn't just a bet; it's a market-shaking 38.96% of historical volume.

With only 17 days left, they're gunning for a $296,042 payday on a juicy 4.0:1 risk/reward.

The market gives "No" a mere 20.0% chance, but the smart money is aligning.

Top "Yes" whales cashed out. The largest holder is now firmly on "No."

Sure, the 1-minute flash-spike risk is a Sword of Damocles hanging over them.

But this whale sees asymmetric value where others only see volatility.

A calculated, audacious move. I'm almost impressed.

Market Context: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? ↑ $110Market Page →

Total Volume

$189,955.438

24h Volume

$97,861.527

Heat

Moderate

End Date

2026-04-30

Created

2026-04-09

Holders

Resolution Rules (Original)

Rules Explained AI_GEN

Conditions

This market resolves to "Yes" if, by the final trading day of April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures shows a "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, it resolves to "No", which also occurs if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the specified period.

Timeline

The market observes prices from its creation until the final trading day during April 2026, and will resolve shortly after this observation period concludes. The specific definitions for 'Active Month' and 'last trading day' are detailed for futures contracts.

Source

The primary resolution source is Pyth, using 1-minute candle "High" prices for Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures from pythdata.app. If Pyth data is unavailable due to technical issues, official daily high prices published by CME Group for the Active Month contract may be used.

Special Cases

If there are changes to contract specifications, data feeds, or similar structural modifications, the market will resolve based on adjusted prices displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the specified timeframe, the market resolves to "No".

Common Mistakes

A common misunderstanding might be the precise definition of the "Active Month" for WTI futures and the exact observation window, which ends on the final trading day of April 2026, not necessarily April 30th if it's not a trading day.

Twitter Sentiment Analysis

Search Keywords for Twitter: WTI, Oil Forecast, 2026

Relevant tweets: 33

Market Sentiment Summary AI_GEN

WTI to $110? The market's gone full Chicken Little. Trump's Hormuz blockade sent oil gapping 8% to $105. Retail's screaming $120, $150! One whale even piled $291,143 into "Yes" at $0.80.

But pump the brakes. A $358,290 "No" whale just dropped a truth bomb at $0.20. Why? The US isn't blocking *all* Strait traffic, just Iranian ports. That's a targeted strike, not a global supply apocalypse.

Goldman's CTAs are scrambling, but the real play isn't chasing headlines. It's fading the panic. This isn't 1973; it's a precision strike. The crowd is buying the rumor, but the smart money's selling the fact. Don't be a lemming. The $110 target by April 2026 is a bridge too far for this manufactured crisis. Bet "No."

KOL — Medium Relevance (2)

KOL@torched_it2 flwQ:3/5newsneutral

WTI Oil is currently priced at US$104.87 per barrel.

⛽ Energy & Metals Update — Sovest 🛢️ WTI Oil: US$104.87/bbl 🔥 Natural Gas: US$2.670/MMBtu 🥇 Gold: A$6,738/oz 🥈 Silver: A$105.75/oz 🔩 Copper: US$5.820/lb #asx #commodities #gold #oil #sovest https://t.co/7iXqsSqZ8x

15 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:7.5Source: X/Twitter

KOL@NotimundoPlus21 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

WTI crude oil surpassed $104 per barrel in reaction to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

El petróleo se dispara. El WTI supera los 104 dólares por barril en reacción al bloqueo de Ormuz. #Petróleo #Ormuz #Mercados #BreakingNews #Economía https://t.co/hmbr89Ew1k

116 views1 rt2 likesER:1.0476RR:5.5Source: X/Twitter

Retail — High Relevance (3)

RETAIL@PolyWhaleFeedverified166 flwQ:4/5firsthandbearish

A PolyWhale trade alert shows a $358,290 bet on WTI Crude Oil not hitting $110 in April, with the 'No' outcome currently at 20%.

🐳 PolyWhale Trade Alert — $358,290 📊 Market: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? 🎯 Outcome: No @ 20% 🔗 https://t.co/aYJqD5uPXM #polymarket #predictionmarkets

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@WhaleAlertPolyverified67 flwQ:4/5firsthandbullish

A whale alert indicates a $291,143 buy on 'Yes' for WTI Crude Oil hitting $110 in April.

🐋 WHALE ALERT $291,143 BUY on Yes "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?" @ $0.80 Market: https://t.co/uE5pTbiYof Trader: https://t.co/8mWcCELTxy

1 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@KingX_Edgyverified205 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Oil prices surged on April 13, 2026, with WTI near $104-$105, after Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

ALERT: Oil prices surged sharply on April 13, 2026 — Brent crossing $102, WTI near $104–$105 — after Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of weekend peace talks in Pakistan. Talks ended without agreement. Iran continues asserting control with selective passages and reported tolls, while traffic remains minimal (well below 10% of normal vol...

26 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Retail — Medium Relevance (10)

RETAIL@LMDC5288verified6,347 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective Monday 10 AM, causing WTI to rise 8% to $104 and other market indices to fall.

Trump宣布封锁霍尔木兹，周一上午10点生效。 WTI涨8%到104美元，航油涨10%。纳指期货跌1.2%，道指期货跌500点。上周刚因停火消息涨了3.6%，这些涨幅现在全部放回去。 Goldman的CTA模型上周还预估450亿美元准备买入标普，现在这些程序在盯着104美元的油价重新计算。 BBH策略副总裁Elias Haddad说可能重新点燃避险情绪。意思就是：周一开盘会疼。美股的大善人们准备好了吗？

13 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@FintrixMarketsverified8 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

WTI surged 9.63% to $105.09 as the US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz created a physical supply disruption.

⚡ $WTI surging 9.63% to $105.09 as the US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz turns supply disruption from theoretical to physical. Brent tracking at $104.40. The demand-destruction thesis is gone — this is a regime change in energy pricing. How far does this run? #Oil #MarketUpdate

9 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:1.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@LeviChamp5355643 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

The Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 20% of global oil, is set to begin tomorrow morning.

🚨 JUST IN: Trump wheels up from Miami. Air Force One en route to the White House. The Iran blockade starts tomorrow morning. Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil about to be contested. Big week ahead. Watch $WTI at 9:30 AM. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/8yXiFSx6tA

169 views0 rt4 likesER:0.0930RR:3.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Maestro_Stockverified9,145 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

President Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade Iranian ports starting on the 13th, following the failure of US-Iran direct talks.

【トランプ大統領、イラン港湾封鎖を米海軍に命令】　パキスタンでの米イラン直接協議が21時間に及び、核開発放棄で合意に至らなかったことを受け、トランプ大統領はTruth Socialでイランの海峡制限を「世界的な恐喝」と非難しました。　米中央軍は13日からイラン港湾への船舶を無差別に封鎖する方針を発表し、非イラン港への海峡通過は妨げないとしています。　イラン側は強く反発し、革命防衛隊が「強力対応」を警告しています。　この動きにより、WTI原油価格は8%超上昇し、1バレル104ドル台となりました。　グローバル貿易への懸念が拡大しており、中東情勢のさらなる緊迫化が懸念されています。

990 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0001RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TAK_K_poker513 flwQ:4/5newsbullish

WTI crude oil futures rapidly surged again, breaking above $100 and temporarily reaching the $105 range due to the Iran situation, with an expectation it will likely reach $120.

東京とNYは週末段階でもうバカ下がり確定だったからどうでもいいとして原油もあっという間に逆戻りまあ120ドルはいきそうだけど --- 【速報】イラン情勢受けWTI原油先物価格が再び急上昇 1バレル＝100ドルの大台突破一時105ドル台　円相場は円安傾向1ドル＝159円台後半に(テレビ朝日系（ANN）) https://t.co/xANctva8X5

478 views1 rt2 likesER:0.0429RR:0.9Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@Siddiqi__1,771 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

The US Navy is preparing to block ships to Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude futures to rise $6.71 or 7.05% to $101.91 per barrel.

امریکی بحریہ کی آبنائے ہرمز کے ذریعے ایران پہنچنے والے جہازوں کو روکنے کی تیاری برینٹ کروڈ فیوچرز کی قیمت میں 6.71 ڈالر یا 7.05 فیصد اضافہ، جس کے بعد قیمت 101.91 ڈالر فی بیرل ہو گئی امریکی (WTI) کروڈ 104.16 ڈالر فی بیرل پر ٹریڈ کر رہا ہے، جس میں 7.59 ڈالر یا 7.86 فیصد اضافہ ہوا

3 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@torched_it2 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

WTI Crude Oil is currently $104.87, representing a 62.1% increase over the past 12 months.

WTI Crude Oil: $104.87 · +62.1% over 12 months Via @sovest_au — ASX Market Pulse #ASX #sovest https://t.co/Ar8IgWB95L

8 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:4.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@InezP93730 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

WTI crude oil is at $104.92 per barrel, representing an 8.65% increase of $8.35.

📊原油（WTI・ブレント先物）大幅上昇日経：-0.73%（下落） WTI 原油：104.92 ドル / バレル（+8.65%、+8.35 ドル）ルギー・輸出・海運株強気 🎯本日上昇厳選銘柄 INPEX (1605) JX 金属 (5593) 免疫生物研究所 (4581) 詳細 https://t.co/WC1eoXROxF #共同通信 #日経平均 #デイトレ

207 views0 rt0 likesER:0.0000RR:0.0Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@marketpro777verified842 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

WTI crude oil surged to the $105 range this morning after US-Iran talks failed, indicating continued geopolitical risk.

📊【今週の展望】更新先週末イスラマバードで米・イラン協議が合意に至らず、WTIが今朝一時105ドル台へ急騰。ナスダック8連騰と地政学リスク継続、2つの顔が今週の相場を決める。答えはnoteで👇 https://t.co/dfqmnKfFQy #米国株投資 #資産運用

49 views0 rt1 likesER:0.0012RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

RETAIL@TheEconopostverified14,320 flwQ:3/5newsbullish

World oil prices on the spot market rose 7% to above $100 per barrel on Monday, April 13, 2026.

Harga minyak dunia di pasar spot pagi ini, Senin, 13 April 2026, naik 7% menjadi kembali di atas 100 dolar AS per barel. Emiten migas bakal dapat sentimen? Emiten petrokimia tertekan? $TPIA $ENRG $ESSA https://t.co/lwQeIH8j6R

824 views0 rt3 likesER:0.0002RR:0.1Source: X/Twitter

Top Whale Positions in This Market

10 position holders in this market. Showing top 10. 7 of 10 hold Yes positions. Largest position: 358,525.14 shares. 10 profitable, 0 at loss.

#	Address	Side	Avg Price	Curr Price	Size	PnL
1	0xa80e3fe5e7a445fa047fe6de1e27f9a15217b94b	No	0.2001	0.2200	358,525.14	+$7,112.42
2	0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c	Yes	0.4747	0.7800	0	+$5,164.75
3	0xefb3247a575c3e78304ec106ddafefefa5b702bf	Yes	0.4575	0.7800	0.04	+$2,991.44
4	0xe3f18acc55091e2c48d883fc8c8413319d4ab7b0	No	0.0000	0.2200	11,860.65	+$2,609.34
5	0x4bbe10ba5b7f6df147c0dae17b46c44a6e562cf3	Yes	0.6247	0.7800	3,458.31	+$536.78
6	0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff523aafbdbbd40c	Yes	0.0000	0.7800	685.66	+$534.82
7	0x3d189c88157a11cb3fd597a44b262a8e37021160	Yes	0.5000	0.7800	1,800	+$504
8	0x777fae71d2ff9ec48a1213d48ba1d9d91024a1bb	Yes	0.4825	0.7800	1,484.92	+$441.7
9	0x8c9233e5b93bdc9ddc202079a426bc4a6f2bebd9	Yes	0.7208	0.7800	0.01	+$431.16
10	0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787	No	0.4552	0.2200	0	+$308.07